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Colts vs Chiefs Predictions
Liam Isola

Colts vs Chiefs Predictions, Picks & Odds - NFL Week 12 Sunday Nov 23rd

Our NFL betting expert offers his Colts vs Chiefs predictions, picks, and odds for a big NFL Week 12 game at Arrowhead Stadium at 1:00pm EST (11/23).

It’s a must-win game today for the Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at home against the Indianapolis Colts. The 5-5 Chiefs are in danger of falling below .500, but they’ve won each of their last four games at Arrowhead Stadium.

Colts vs Chiefs Predictions - 1:00pm EST - 11/23

  • Alec Pierce Anytime TD Scorer @ +275
  • Under 50.5 Points @ -110
  • Chiefs -3.5 @ -102

All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing, and subject to change.

Colts vs Chiefs Odds

  • Spread: Chiefs -3.5 (-102)
  • Moneyline: Colts (+145), Chiefs (-175)
  • Total: O/U 50.5 (-110)

Colts vs Chiefs Picks

Airmail to Alec Pierce - Alec Pierce Anytime TD Scorer (+275)

Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce caught his first touchdown of the season last Sunday against the Falcons in Berlin. He managed to pull one down in double coverage and caught four passes for 84 yards.

This could open up the floodgates for Pierce, who had seven touchdown receptions in the 2024 season. Colts QB Daniel Jones has been looking for Pierce more as the season has progressed.

After Jones threw the ball Pierce’s way just 4.3 times per game in Pierce’s first four appearances this season, Pierce is averaging 8.8 targets per game in his last four. So, his usage has more than doubled since the start of the season, and he’s certainly a threat to score today.

These are good odds for a guy who scored a touchdown nearly once every two games last season. So, take Alec Pierce as an anytime TD scorer (+275).

  • Colts vs Chiefs Prediction 1: Alec Pierce Anytime TD Scorer @ +275

Can Chiefs Contain Colts? - Under 50.5 Points (-110)

While their record may not show it, the Kansas City Chiefs quietly have one of the NFL’s best scoring defenses this season. The Chiefs allow just 18.1 points per game, which ranks fourth in the NFL. They’ve also given up just 12.8 points per game at home, the fewest of any team.

The Chiefs’ offense has certainly not been as efficient in 2025 as in previous seasons, so the under is 5-0 in their last five games. Meanwhile, the Indianapolis Colts rank first in EPA per play and points per game, so this will be a signifcant challenge for the Chiefs.

Still, KC has fared well against explosive offenses this season. KC held the Lions to 17 points in Week 6 and the Ravens to just 20 points in Week 4. The Colts were able to exploit the Chargers’ terrible run defense and score 38 points on the road in Week 7.

However, the Chiefs, who held Bills RB James Cook to 4.2 yards per carry in Week 9, will be able to slow down Jonathan Taylor a bit. Indy has lost two of its last three road games and scored just 20 points in both of those losses. Bet on under 50.5 points (-110) here.

  • Colts vs Chiefs Prediction 2: Under 50.5 Points @ -110

Chiefs Consistently Cover at Arrowhead - Chiefs -3.5 (-102)

It has been a tale of two teams for the Chiefs at home and on the road. On the road, they are 1-4 both ATS and SU with an average point margin of -1.2. At home, they’ve won and covered in their last four games and have a 15.8-point average margin of victory.

Kansas City has won in each of its last 15 games as home favorites, and the Chiefs certainly need a win here to stay afloat. The Chiefs (5-5) are far behind the Broncos (9-2) in the AFC West race, and another loss would mean the Chiefs have to be nearly perfect to close out the season.

The Chiefs lost a close one to the Broncos last week, and the Colts won’t put the same amount of pressure on the quarterback. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs should bounce back today in a big way and cover for a fifth straight home game.

  • Colts vs Chiefs Prediction 3: Chiefs -3.5 @ -110

Colts vs Chiefs Start Time

  • Start Time: 1:00pm EST
  • Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
  • Address: 1 Arrowhead Dr, Kansas City, MO 64129
  • TV & Streaming: CBS, Paramount+, Fubo, Hulu, YouTube TV, NFL+

Heading into today’s game against the Kansas City Chiefs, the Indianapolis Colts have lost two of their last three road games. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have won four straight home games and badly need a win to stay in the AFC playoff race.