Man City warned 60-point deduction would be 'logical' if they're found guilty in 115 FFP charges case as reason for lengthy verdict delay explained

Accusations of monetary mismanagement have been hanging over the Etihad Stadium since early in 2023, following a long-running investigation. An independent hearing was concluded late in 2024, but over a year has passed without a final ruling being delivered.

Uncertainty is doing nobody any favours, as City maintain their innocence, and another domestic campaign could come to a close before an outcome is revealed - as Pep Guardiola’s side chase down more major honours at home and abroad.

Football finance expert Kieran Maguire has told The Overlap, brought to you by Sky Bet, of why the process has taken so long and how timing has become so important: “We reckon there's probably about half a million pieces of evidence that were presented by both the prosecution and the defence. The hearing finished in the second week of December. So we're now 14 months with silence. So by the cases similar to a fraud case, I think we're we're probably into the final reaches of getting a decision. I think part of the challenge has been that because there are three very senior people who are on the court, who are making that final judgment. Getting those three together at the same time is actually very difficult. So that's delayed the case. It should be resolved in the next few months. But we said this before, you know, Pep was saying last February that he was expecting something. There's an awful lot of evidence to go through and this and the charges are very, very serious. So you've got to have enough evidence.”

He added: “If it comes out the week before the end of the season, it would be catastrophic in many ways. From what I understand, both the Premier League and Manchester City will probably be given 24 hours notice of the verdict to allow their lawyers to go away and check the small print of it. It could be on the day of the World Cup final for all we know.”

Moving on to possible sanctions and how they will be determined, Maguire opened with: “We have got well over 115 charges so what happens if it is 70-50 in terms of favour to the Premier League or favour of Manchester City? If Manchester City are found guilty of non-cooperation, which is fairly likely, they are likely to get a significant fine because that is what we saw happen with UEFA and the deductions there. If it’s a points deduction, I think the Premier League will claim it as a victory.”

It was claimed at one stage that City could be expelled from the Premier League. Maguire has reiterated why that cannot happen, but the Blues could be stung with a hefty points penalty that sends them tumbling down the top-flight table. There may also be sweeping changes at boardroom level.

Maguire went on to say: “The Premier League cannot relegate Manchester City to League One or League Two because that is an EFL decision and Manchester City have not had any charges proven against them by the EFL. Therefore, it has to be a points deduction. 

“If we take a look at precedence, we have had Everton and Nottingham Forest with six and four-point deductions for a single offence covering a three-year period. The accusations against Manchester City cover a nine-year period, so it is far bigger. 

“The numbers involved we are not certain about but they are likely to be quite significant. I think you have to add a zero to what we’ve seen in terms of Forest and Everton, so somewhere between a 40 and 60-point deduction would be, on merit to be consistent with what we’ve seen with other decisions, would make a lot of logic. 

“If they want to go further then we don’t know the severity. In the case of both Forest and Everton, they were to do with FFP purely. The accusations against Manchester City have already been hinted at, which is why it is taking so long. 

“Corporate fraud is a very serious accusation. The board of directors would have to go. How can you be in a meeting room with other members of the Premier League, with the Premier League itself - of whom you are a shareholder - with this accusation being proven? 

“If you take a look at what happened with Juventus in Serie A, the board had to resign when they were claiming things about player wages which were proven to be untrue. There is an honesty issue here that would mean if Manchester City are found guilty - City are massively confident, as are the Premier League - then the board has to go and that could be a complete restructure of the club.”

Former Premier League chief Christian Purslow - who has worked at Aston Villa, Liverpool and Chelsea - believes that City could still tumble out of the top tier if a points deduction is hefty enough.

He has told The Football Boardroom: “The smart decision is, if I’m the chairman of the Premier League, let’s leave it to the lawyers. Let’s leave it to the process, which everybody signed up to.

“My point is a simple one. When this is left to the judges, however frustrating it is that it takes so long, it will be in the land of precedent. The precedent is sporting sanction. The sporting sanction is likely to be major points deductions, which ultimately could translate into relegation.”

City are currently sat second in the Premier League table, five points adrift of leaders Arsenal. They are also into the last-16 of the Champions League, fifth round of the FA Cup and the Carabao Cup final.