Barcelona's ideal No.9 or back to the Premier League? Julian Alvarez is a wanted man despite two-month goal drought for Atletico Madrid

Alvarez only joined Atletico 18 months ago, the most notable new arrival at the Metropolitano during a €188 million (£163m/$223m) summer spending spree that saw Diego Simeone's side touted as legitimate title challengers. However, despite storming to the top of the table by the midway point of the 2024-25 season via an eight-game winning streak, Atleti capitulated during the second half of the season and failed to win a single trophy.

Simeone lamented a lack of "stability", but some supporters and pundits queried Alvarez's contribution. There was certainly nothing more he could have done about his unfortunate double-touch penalty in the heart-breaking Champions League last-16 shootout loss to city rivals Real Madrid, while he'd also finished the season with a career-high 29 goals in all competitions.

However, the €75m (£65m/$89m) signing from Manchester City had actually been outscored in La Liga by team-mate Alexander Sorloth, who managed to score three more goals than Alvarez (20-17) despite starting 15 fewer games.

Unsurprisingly, Simeone was bemused by the criticism of Alvarez, who had led the line with the same mix of menace and unselfishness we'd seen from him during Argentina's triumph at Qatar 2022.

"There are many positive things, and anyone who wants to see them will find them," the coach told reporters in May. "What Julian did in terms of effort is unbelievable. He is a player with quality, presence, and simplicity, and while he can score a goal, he prefers to pass to his team-mate. We need Julian. He is a player we signed for a lot of money and we hope he feels happy here. We all have to help him showcase his talent more."

The powers-that-be at Atletico agreed, and once again spent just over €180m on assembling a supporting cast worthy of their leading man, with Alex Baena, Jhonny Cardoso, Thiago Almada, Matteo Ruggeri, Marc Pubill, David Hancko, Santiago Mourino, Giacomo Raspadori and Nico Gonzalez all rocking up in the Spanish capital last summer.

Unfortunately, Atletico remain a very curious and frustratingly inconsistent team. Just last week, for example, the Rojiblancos routed Real Betis 5-0 in their own backyard in the quarter-finals of the Copa del Rey - and yet three days later they lost 1-0 at home to the same side. However, if Atletico's performances are puzzling, they're nothing compared to those of Alvarez.

After netting just once in his first five Liga outings of the current campaign, against Espanyol on the opening weekend, Alvarez exploded into life at the tail end of September by netting a hat-trick in a 3-2 win over Rayo Vallecano before bagging a brace in stunning 5-2 derby demolition of Real at the Metropolitano.

It was the most emphatic response to claims that he was not just unsettled at Atletico but frustrated with Simeone, who had taken him off in the 62nd minute of the draw with Mallorca the previous weekend. What's more, the notoriously demanding manager certainly didn't sound like he was in any way unhappy with Alvarez when he spoke to the press in the aftermath of the Madrid derby. On the contrary, he came across as if he felt blessed to have him in his team.

"Julian is an extraordinary player," the Atleti boss enthused after Alvarez had converted a cathartic penalty against Real before finding the back of the net with a fantastic free-kick. "But what I value most about him, beyond everything you see, is his humility. The humility to run, to work, as a World Cup winner to be at Atletico Madrid running during the whole games, regardless of who we play against.

"We have to look after him, so he is here for many years, and becomes a big player in this club's history."

As Simone's warning underlined, Alvarez's situation had already become a topic of discussion just over a month into the new season, and the attacker's post-derby comments didn't entirely quell the speculation surrounding his future.

"I just think short term, and no further," the 26-year-old stated. "But I feel very looked after at Atleti, very happy here. So, I just work every day to improve and help the team. The season is very long, still a lot to play for." 

There's mounting concern at the Metropolitano, though, that Atletico are once again going to end the season empty-handed, particularly as Alvarez has scored just once in La Liga since the Madrid derby, all the way back on November 1, in a 3-0 win over Sevilla.

There have been three goals in the Champions League since then, but not one in any competition at all since December 9, and while it would be unfair to pin Atleti's topsy-turvy form on Alvarez's dry spell, it's certainly been a major factor in their falling 13 points behind La Liga leaders Barcelona.

However, in spite of his struggles in front of goal - or arguably even because of them - Alvarez has become the subject of ever-increasing transfer talk.

Alvarez has admitted himself that his agent discussed terms over a potential move to Paris Saint-Germain before he arrived in Madrid in 2024 and, according to reports, Luis Enrique remains keen on signing Alvarez, even though Ousmane Dembele has revelled in the 'false nine' role over the past year.

Naturally, if Atletico do make Alvarez available for transfer this summer, a return to the Premier League is a possibility, given the enormous wealth of England's elite. Liverpool, though, won't reignite their longstanding interest in the Argentina international after signing both Hugo Ekitike and Alexander Isak last summer, and while Pep Guardiola has never hidden the fact that he misses Alvarez, there's simply no chance of him going back to the Etihad while Erling Haaland is still at the club.

However, both Arsenal and Chelsea are said to be very keen, which is entirely feasible. In fact, it would be a surprise if the Gunners were not interested in Alvarez, as it was their current sporting director, Andrea Berta, who signed him for Atletico. In addition, despite an upturn in form, Viktor Gyokeres still seems to be struggling with the pressure that comes with leading the line for an elite-level club - which is not something that Gary Lineker believes would be an issue with Alvarez.

"He's a World Cup winner for crying out loud," the former England international said on the Stick to Football podcast. "He's the sort of player you know can handle the big occasion and someone like that at Arsenal would be game over."

Perhaps Chelsea share a similar view, as there's mounting speculation that the Blues believe Alvarez is the prolific No.9 that they - like Arsenal - have long lacked, the kind of mobile centre-forward that could combine far more effectively with the versatile Joao Pedro than the limited Liam Delap.

It is Barcelona, though, who are said to be leading the race to sign Alvarez, which obviously sounds absurd, given the Blaugrana's budgetary constraints and Atletico's alleged nine-figure asking price. The Catalans' rumoured interest in signing Juventus forward Dusan Vlahovic on a free transfer makes much more sense, but Alvarez-to-Barca is a rumour that refuses to go away.

Centre-back Ronald Araujo was even asked about it ahead of Thursday's game. "He’s a great player and for me, he's one of the best strikers in the world," the Uruguayan said. "You can see the quality he has, and the best players have to be at the best club, which is us. That's obvious. But it’s not my job to do that work or make that decision."

That responsibility lies with Laporta and sporting director Deco, who, after years of creative accounting and soul-selling, are edging Barca ever close to being fully compliant with La Liga's financial regulations. If they were to get there by the end of the season, signing Alvarez wouldn't be beyond the realms of possibility.

Barcelona have certainly made stranger things happen in recent transfer windows, and there's no doubt that Alvarez would make for a fantastic replacement for Robert Lewandowski, the 37-year-old forward who is expected to quit Camp Nou in the summer.

Losing Alvarez to Barca would obviously hit Atleti fans hard - but it probably wouldn't feel as big a betrayal as Antoine Griezmann joining the Blaugrana back in 2019. For all Alvarez's talk of feeling settled in Madrid, he's never really done much to distance himself from all of the transfer speculation.

"Do I plan on playing at Barcelona or at PSG? Honestly, I don’t know," the attacker told L'Equipe just last November. "I see what people say on social media and, in Spain, people speak a lot about me and Barcelona. For now, I am focused on Atletico and we will review the situation at the end of the season."

Alvarez is obviously well within his right to take some time to mull over his next move. He's never hidden his desire to win major trophies at Atletico, having been a part of a treble-winning team at City, and there's obviously a very real risk of the Rojiblancos' season once again unravelling at precisely the wrong time.

They're clear underdogs going into the Copa clash with Barcelona, while Club Brugge represent rather tricky Champions League last-16 opponents for a team beaten by Bodo/Glimt in their final game in the league phase. As a result, Atleti could really do with Alvarez snapping his scoring streak sooner rather than later as they're not really equipped to carry a usually ferocious forward who's looked flat and ineffective during the past two months.

On the plus side, Atleti brought in even more players during the winter window, and Ademola Lookman already looks capable of adding a whole new dimension to the attack with his pace and trickery, though age is finally catching up with Griezmann while Sorloth hasn't been anywhere near as clinical this season as he was last term. There have also been issues in the centre of defence, despite the good form of Pubill, while the loss of the irreplaceable Pablo Barrios to injury is a colossal blow for the midfield.

Worryingly, the nearly always-available Alvarez has also had some physical issues in recent weeks and missed the Betis defeat through illness, so Simeone is desperate to have him back for the Barca showdown.

"We need Julian," the coach reiterated for the umpteenth time this season. "He's a hugely important player for us, the best footballer we have, and hopefully he'll be fully fit for Thursday. There's a very important match ahead." 

The Copa is, after all, Atleti's best shot at silverware this season, and while the condition of the pitch will be important, it's Alvarez that they need in the best physical - and mental - condition possible.