Jude Bellingham's Ballon d'Or is far from secure - now is the time for Real Madrid's star man to step up and seal the Golden Ball

Bellingham hit the ground running in a Madrid shirt, scoring three in his first two games. In the months that followed, he bagged winning goals, crucial assists, and also embodied the spirit of Carlo Ancelotti's revamped side. He may have been a new face, but there Bellingham was, flying into slide tackles, complaining to referees, and shouting in Spanish after finding the net.

He had heard Gareth Bale's warnings about failing to connect with the fans, and his arms-spread celebration was ubiquitous. Bellingham was Madrid, and everyone at Santiago Bernabeu seemed to know it.

For a long time, that made him the unanimous pick for the 2024 Ballon d'Or. Not only was Bellingham scoring at a better rate than anyone on the continent, he was also doing so for a European heavyweight. A 20-year-old was carrying one of the biggest clubs in the world.

Bellingham remains the Golden Ball frontrunner, but things have changed. For some time, Bellingham was on pace for 40 goals and 20 assists, and was earning comparisons to Zinedine Zidane. Ancelotti cooled expectations, suggesting that perhaps 20 goals would be a more reasonable target for a player who - despite his prowess - is still very much a box-to-box midfielder.

He still has 30 goal involvements in 32 games, but his grip on La Liga's Pichichi awed for the season's top goal-scorer is loosening after Girona's Artem Dovbyk and Osasuna's Ante Budimir joined him at the top of the charts on 16 strikes each.

Bellingham's red card against Valencia in early March and the two-match suspension that followed stalled some of the momentum of his campaign, as did the dislocated shoulder and sprained ankle injuries that hit him either side of the New Year. Criticism of Bellingham's reduction in output, therefore, is difficult to manifest.

It is also worth remembering that Bellingham is still just 20, has only been in Spain for nine months, and finds himself playing an entirely new position. Still, if it's numbers that rule the Ballon d'Or conversation, then his are starting to falter slightly.

And in the eyes of Ballon d'Or voters, at least, this is a crucial few weeks. Recent history has shown that the trophy is essentially secured over the spring and early summer - but can also be thrown away. For all of the talk that the honour should be based off year-round success, it's impossible to ignore the fact that those who vote seem to have short memories, and use what happens at the end of campaigns, as well as in summer tournaments, to make their decisions.

Benzema's 2022 campaign, for example, was built off a Champions League run in which he single-handedly dragged Madrid to a number of memorable European wins. Luka Modric, in 2018, did largely the same, his midfield orchestration and subsequent World Cup performances for Croatia earning him the nod. Even the Lionel Messi-Cristiano Ronaldo duopoly ultimately came down to who performed more effectively in April and May when silverware is on the line.

The same, then, will go for Bellingham, whose credentials will undoubtedly - fairly or otherwise - be determined by the outcome of the next months.

Bellingham's Ballon d'Or campaign, then, arguably starts this week with the visit of Manchester City to the Bernabeu. Pep Guardiola's team aren't quite the juggernaut that won the treble last year, but they're getting close. Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne remain elite performers, while Phil Foden is enjoying the best season of his career. Throw in the usual excellence of Rodri, and total class of Bernardo Silva, and the Cityzens are just about favourites to win the Champions League again.

Bellingham will not be alone in his efforts to take City down in the quarter-finals, as Madrid have weapons all over the pitch, and a strong spine that will be able to keep the Premier League champions at bay for a time. But on the biggest nights, it's the razor-sharp edges and crucial difference-makers that ultimately count, and for Madrid, that has to be Bellingham.

He has already shown he is capable of turning in a number of signature showings, but producing a game-changing display at this stage of the Champions League, against the side who many feel will be lifting the trophy at Wembley in June, might just restore his sole claim to football's biggest individual honour.

If Madrid crash out, however, then Bellingham's absence from the final throes of club football's most popular competition will undoubtedly hurt his Ballon d'Or candidacy. Though Madrid are well on course to win La Liga, few voters are tuning in to the Spanish top-flight each week, and thus the midfielder would need to find another route to show himself on the biggest stage possible in the final months of the season.

Fortunately for Bellingham, this is a tournament year, and England are currently the favourites to 'bring football home' and win Euro 2024. In fact, only France can boast a side as well-rounded or scary going forward as the Three Lions.

Tournament football is, of course, inherently unpredictable. England's footballing history, meanwhile, is defined by its glorious - and sometimes less glorious -failures. Bellingham, though, can be a true difference-maker in Germany, and potentially lift the Three Lions to their greatest height since 1966.

“His mentality is incredible,” Gareth Southgate said of Bellingham in November. “For someone of his age to show such maturity and intelligence is unbelievable. We are lucky to have him. He’s been the catalyst – the way he carries himself and plays on the field shows that and he’s had that since he walked through the door.”

Southgate has a wealth of riches to choose from, and will likely boast an attack of Harry Kane, Foden, Bukayo Saka this summer, but it is Bellingham who is most likely to get England over the line. Should he end almost 60 years of hurt, then even a slow second half of the season might not be enough to keep him from the Ballon d'Or. Miss out on both Champions League and Euros glory, though, and other candidates could yet move themselves into pole position.

While Bellingham remains the overwhelming Ballon d'Or favourite, there are plenty who will feel they still have a genuine shot of challenging for the Golden Ball. Certainly, City possess a number of potential contenders - Foden, Haaland and Rodri, to name three - whose chances would be boosted considerably were they to knock Bellingham and Madrid out of Europe over the next eight days.

Of those three, Foden and Rodri will also be key players for their respective countries at this summer's Euros, but Haaland will instead be watching on television following Norway's failure to qualify. With his goal numbers down from last season, too, his wait for a first Golden Ball may extend into 2025 at this rate.

Elsewhere, Kylian Mbappe figures to be Bellingham's main competition. The Paris Saint-Germain frontman is closing on 50 goals for the season across club and country, with the Ligue 1 leaders on course to win a domestic double. They are also in the 'easier' half of the Champions League draw, and with France expected to go far at the Euros too, there is a chance that even if Bellingham doesn't win, the Ballon d'Or holder is still playing for Madrid next season in the shape of Mbappe.

Arsenal and England duo Bukayo Saka and Declan Rice, meawhile, are theoretically in with a chance of winning the Premier League, Champions League and Euros, while there is a world where both Harry Kane and Antoine Griezmann reach the Champions League final and go onto enjoy memorable summer tournaments. Heck, a Copa America win for Argentina could even throw Messi into the mix for number nine.

It is Bellingham, though, for whom the 2024 Ballon d'Or is his to lose. But despite everything he has achieved already this season, the race for football's ultimate individual honour is only now truly under way.