City will aim for a repeat of their 3-0 home win over the Reds in the Premier League in November, with Haaland rested and fit to start.
Best Predictions for Manchester City vs Liverpool
- Manchester City Moneyline @ -130
- Erling Haaland First Goalscorer @ +280
- Tie (1st Half) @ +150
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
- Claim the BetMGM promo offer to get sports bonuses
- Get your hands on the best sportsbook promos with our experts guide to the sports bonuses
- Check out our expert’s guide to the best sports betting sites in the US
City to advance to the semis
With Liverpool’s main priorities being a top-five EPL finish and competing for the Champions League, the FA Cup may be more of a distraction this weekend. City still possess a slight possibility of clinching the Premier League title. However, a win over the Reds would boost their confidence following their Champions League elimination against Real Madrid.
It’s also true that Liverpool could be missing up to nine first-team players from their squad this weekend. Alisson Becker could still be out between the posts, while the availability of Mo Salah and Federico Chiesa remains uncertain.
City’s international stars appear to have come through without sustaining any injuries. The main absentee for Guardiola is Ruben Dias (hamstring), who is likely to be replaced by Khusanov alongside Marc Guehi. With all of the above taken into consideration, there is value in backing City to win the game in the 90 minutes at a probability of 56.50%.
- Manchester City vs Liverpool Prediction 1: Manchester City Moneyline @ -130
A rested Haaland to score the first goal
Norway’s national team coach, Ståle Solbakken, took the responsible decision to rest City star Erling Haaland from international duty. Because the Norwegians already safely qualified for this summer’s World Cup, Solbakken opted to leave Haaland at home for their March friendlies.
This was excellent news for City manager Pep Guardiola, who has been able to carefully protect his star striker from injury instead. Haaland enjoys playing against Liverpool. He’s registered two goals and an assist in his two Premier League meetings against the Reds in 2025/26.
Haaland’s goal strike rate this season across all competitions is 69.80%. We can back him to score the first goal in this contest at a probability of only 26.32%. Haaland will be fresh and firing from the beginning of the match, following two weeks without playing. This is the top value bet from our trio of Manchester City vs Liverpool predictions.
- Manchester City vs Liverpool Prediction 2: Erling Haaland First Goalscorer @ +280
Backing a closely contested first 45 minutes
Manchester City have been drawn at half-time in 40% of their FA Cup games so far this season, while Liverpool have done so in 50% of their FA Cup ties in 2025/26. We can back this quarter-final to be tied at the interval at a probability of 40%, when the statistics suggest it should be closer to 45%-50%.
Both teams will feature players who have been involved in a busy two weeks of international fixtures. It may take some time for their returning stars to get back into rhythm.
Meanwhile, less than 31% of goals in Liverpool’s cup ties came in the first half of matches. City frequently start matches quickly, with 67% of goals in their cup ties arriving in the opening 45. However, the importance of the match will likely lead both teams to play cautiously at the start of the game.
- Manchester City vs Liverpool Prediction 3: Tie (1st Half) @ +150
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Man City 2-1 Liverpool
- Goalscorers prediction - Man City: Haaland, Semenyo - Liverpool: Ekitike
Manchester City host Liverpool on Saturday lunchtime, with a place in the FA Cup semi-finals at stake.
Pep Guardiola’s men host the Reds at the Etihad Stadium, aiming to secure their third consecutive victory against the Merseyside club. They secured a 3-0 home win over Arne Slot’s side in November and won 2-1 at Anfield, when the Reds finished the game with ten men.
City have only lost one of their last 16 games across all competitions. They lost their most recent fixture, when Real Madrid won 2-1 in the second leg of their Champions League tie. Guardiola has few selection issues this weekend, with Ruben Dias the only major absentee. Erling Haaland is expected to start following two weeks of rest. The Norwegian will be supported in attack by Antoine Semenyo and Jeremy Doku.
Liverpool went into the recent international break with a disappointing 2-1 defeat at Brighton in the league. This loss came just 72 hours after their 4-0 victory against Galatasaray in the Champions League, underlining their inconsistency in 2025/26.
Arne Slot has several selection issues going into this cup tie. Mo Salah and Alisson Becker are the primary injury concerns, while Federico Chiesa is also reportedly recovering from a minor injury. Alexander Isak continues his rehabilitation following the broken leg he sustained in December
Probable lineups for Manchester City vs Liverpool
Manchester City expected lineup: Trafford; O’Reilly, Nunes, Khusanov, Guehi, Rodri, Silva, Doku, Semenyo, Cherki, Haaland
Liverpool expected lineup: Mamardashvili; Frimpong, Kerkez, van Dijk, Konate, Gravenberch, Mac Allister, Szoboszlai, Wirtz, Salah, Ekitike