Our betting expert expects Leeds to take another step away from the relegation zone, while condemning Wolves to another defeat on the road.
Best bets for Leeds vs Wolves
- BTTS - No @ -130
- Anytime goalscorer - Noah Okafor @ +140
- Half-time/ full-time: Tie/Leeds @ +360
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbook, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Wolves’ away-day woes continue
One of Farke’s major concerns is his side’s defence. He wants to ensure they stay solid against Wolves and prevent the visitors from scoring. Leeds have already registered clean sheets in a quarter of all their league matches at Elland Road this term.
The hosts are slightly more proficient in front of goal at home than on their road trips. They’ve scored 22 goals in 16 home games, averaging 1.38 goals per match. However, after keeping three clean sheets in their last five outings, they may be just as happy with shutting Wolves out again.
The visitors have been poor in the final third this season, scoring a league-low 24 goals in 32 matches. They have the worst offence on the road as well, scoring just seven goals in 16 such fixtures. That means Wolves have failed to score in 62% of their away games in the Premier League this season.
Furthermore, both teams have scored in just 38% of their road trips this term. Meanwhile, 56% of Leeds’ home games have ended with both sides on the scoresheet. Three of the hosts’ last five outings saw only one team find the net, or neither.
- Leeds vs Wolves Prediction 1: BTTS - No @ -130
Okafor steps up when it matters
Dominic Calvert-Lewin is Leeds’ top scorer in the Premier League this season, with 10 goals to his name. However, he last scored at the start of February and has been going through a dry spell. The good news for the home side is that the burden has been shared elsewhere.
Noah Okafor has been the man to the rescue for the Whites in recent outings. He netted a brace against Manchester United on Monday, leading Leeds to an unlikely victory. The Swiss forward is in form, which means the hosts will rely on him to be one of the catalysts this weekend.
Okafor has scored six league goals so far this season, accounting for 15% of the club’s total goals. After battling a hamstring strain recently, he hopes his worst days are behind him. It’s worth highlighting that Okafor was on target in the reverse fixture when Leeds won 3-1. This makes him our preferred candidate to score.
- Leeds vs Wolves Prediction 2: Anytime goalscorer - Noah Okafor @ +140
Leeds to push through in the second half
The hosts have shown they usually start slowly in the league. Leeds have drawn 44% of all their league matches at half-time this season. At Elland Road, they’ve gone into the break level on terms in nine of 16 fixtures (56%). Seven of Wolves’ 16 away matches ended all square after 45 minutes (44%).
Of those seven half-time draws, the visitors finished the game on the losing side on four occasions (57%). Leeds tend to finish their half-time draws by sharing the points. They’ve done so in five of their nine half-time stalemates. The Whites have converted just two of those draws into maximum points.
The only teams they secured those points against were Everton and Fulham. However, given Leeds have won the last four Premier League head-to-heads in a row, they can be backed in the second half.
- Leeds vs Wolves Prediction 3: Half-time/ full-time: Tie/Leeds @ +360
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Leeds 1-0 Wolves
- Goalscorers prediction: Leeds: Noah Okafor
Leeds ended a 40-year wait for a win at Old Trafford with a 2-1 victory over Manchester United. The result moved Daniel Farke’s men closer to safety. They’re now six points better off than Tottenham in 18th.
As things stand, the Whites are likely to maintain their Premier League status, but there is still work to do. They put in an excellent performance against United and were good value for maximum points. As a result, they enter Matchday 33 sitting in 15th and gradually moving away from danger.
Wolves, by contrast, are seeing the warning signs grow stronger every week, especially with only six league games remaining. Rob Edwards went a long way in steadying the ship after coming in, but it could be too late.
The visitors lost to West Ham on Friday last week, denting their faint chances of survival. However, they now have a realistic chance of avoiding a bottom-place finish, as Burnley are only three points ahead. That would be a remarkable achievement, as it seemed impossible earlier in the campaign.
Either way, Edwards is building a team that will be able to head straight back into the Premier League within a season. While their fate is almost sealed, Wolves still want to test themselves against top-tier opposition as they prepare for the Championship.
Probable lineups for Leeds vs Wolves
Leeds expected lineup: Darlow, Justin, Bijol, Struijk, Bogle, Ampadu, Tanaka, Gudmundsson, Aaronson, Okafor, Calvert-Lewin
Wolves expected lineup: Sa, Mosquera, S. Bueno, Krejci, Tchatchoua, Bellegarde, Andre, Gomes, H. Bueno, Gomes, Armstrong