After three weeks of NFL action, the NFC South is completely up for grabs. New Orleans, Atlanta, and Carolina all entered Week 4 with an even 1-2 record, but the Saints remain the favorites to win the division. That could change if the Falcons win on Monday. With that in mind, let’s dive into our picks for this MNF showdown.
Falcons vs Saints Predictions, Picks & Odds - 8:15pm ET - 10/5/2026
- New Orleans Saints -2 @ -105 with BetMGM
- Chris Olave Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ +125 with BetMGM
- New Orleans Saints Team Total - Over 24 @ -120 with BetMGM
All odds are courtesy of BetMGM, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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New Orleans Saints -2
Neither New Orleans or Atlanta have been convincing this season. Both have yet to win at home and obviously have losing records through three games. With that being said, the Saints have been more reliable.
They’ve scored over 24 points in each of their games this season, including a big 24-17 win away versus the Ravens in Week 2. A failed two-point conversion against the Lions in Week 1 is the only thing keeping the Saints from leading the NFC South.
The Falcons, on the other hand, have been about as up-and-down as you can get through three games. They underwhelmed in Week 1 against the Steelers and were blown out 34-3 by the Panthers in Week 2. They surprised everyone in Week 3 by beating the Packers on Thursday night, powered by a huge game by running back Bijan Robinson.
New Orleans’ run defence is average at best, so there’s a chance that Robinson has another stellar showing, but based on what we’ve seen through three weeks, a two-point spread feels very generous to Atlanta.
- Falcons vs Saints Pick 1: New Orleans Saints -2 @ -105 with BetMGM
Chris Olave Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Tyler Shough entered Week 4 as arguably the best quarterback in the NFL. He ranked second in the league for yards thrown (917) and joint-second for touchdowns, with eight. He also has completed the most first downs.
Chris Olave is one the reasons Shough has been so productive. The 26-year-old receiver has caught 27 receptions for 375 yards so far this season. He’s received over 100 yards in four of his last five games.
More importantly, Olave has been targeted more than any other Saints receiver. Shough has gone to Olave 36 times in three games. The receiver has only caught one TD so far, but against the Falcons' average secondary, he’s good money to score on Monday — especially if Shough keeps targeting him.
- Falcons vs Saints Pick 2: Chris Olave Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ +125 with BetMGM
New Orleans Saints Team Total - Over 24
The Saints only rank 11th for points scored through three weeks, with 81, so they’re not a lock for the over every week. That said, we expect them to put up big numbers against the Falcons.
New Orleans’ offense runs completely through Shough, who has been great this year. His three interceptions are his only fault so far. The Falcons have just one interception this season and have allowed the fourth-most passing yards in the NFL (789) entering Week 4. As for a pash rush, Atlanta is average. They rank 11th for pressure percentage, with 25% of downs resulting in a QB pressure, knockdown, or sack. The Falcons also rank dead-last for blitz percentage at 13.2%.
When you put all this together, Atlanta has a low chance of stopping Shough. If the Falcons can’t stop slow, we expect the Saints to put up a lot of points.
- Falcons vs Saints Pick 3: New Orleans Saints Team Total - Over 24 @ -120 with BetMGM
Falcons vs Saints at US Prediction Markets
US based sports traders can trade options on this week's huge Sunday Night Football NFC South showdown between the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers on all of the best prediction market apps.
The Saints are still favorites heading into the game, priced at 54¢ on Kalshi and Polymarket, but the advantage has narrowed from a 65¢ peak a couple of weeks ago. The return of Michael Penix Jr. has put momentum behind the Falcons, who are available at 47¢. Traders seem to be anticipating high scores no matter who wins, with the 50¢ mark around 48.5 points.
All prices correct at time of publication and subject to change.
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Falcons vs Saints Start Time
The Saints will host the Falcons at the Caesars Superdome on Monday night (10/5) at 8:15pm ET (7:15pm local time) in what could be a pivotal NFC South game. You can watch this big MNF matchup live on ESPN, or streaming via ESPN+, Hulu+ Live TV, and YouTube TV.
Falcons vs Saints Game Details
- Start Time: 8:15pm ET (7:15pm local time)
- Location: Caesars Superdome
- Address: 1500 Sugar Bowl Dr, New Orleans, LA 70112, United States
- Streaming: ESPN+, Hulu + Live TV, YouTube TV, Fubo, Sling TV