New York enters Week 10 with a commanding lead in the NFC East, with a 5-2-1 record. Washington, meanwhile, sit in third place in the division at 2-5-1. Jayden Daniels and Commanders need a win here if they are going to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Commanders vs Giants Predictions, Picks & Odds - 8:15pm ET - 11/12/2026
- New York Giants -2.5 @ +110 with BetMGM
- Isaiah Likely - Anytime Touchdown @ +205 with BetMGM
- J.J. McCarthy Rushing Yards - Under 17.5 @ -110 with BetMGM
All odds are courtesy of BetMGM, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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New York Giants -2.5
Neither the Giants nor the Commanders have wowed NFL fans this season and they tied in their last matchup. Given this, it makes sense why the spread is so short here. With that being said, we think New York are the clear favourites.
John Harbaugh’s team have been far more consistent this season, even if they have benefited from playing in a weak division. The Commanders, on the other hand, have looked pedestrian and Jayden Daniels continues to underwhelm. Other than the surprise win against Seattle, there haven’t been many positives for Washington this season.
Other than overall team quality, the major stat we’ve honed in on is red zone conversion. The Giants have the sixth-best conversion percentage in the NFL, with 68.8%. Washington allows opponents to convert 75% of their red zone appearances, which is second-worst in the league. New York actually ranks worst in this metric, but the Commanders’ offense is far less threatening, with just a 52.4% conversion rate.
- Commanders vs Giants Pick 1: New York Giants -2.5 @ +110 with BetMGM
Isaiah Likely - Anytime Touchdown
Giants tight end Isaiah Likely scored two touchdowns the last time these two teams faced off. On one hand, you could argue that the Commanders will be ready for him this time. On the other, you could say that they’ll struggle against him anyway. We’re buying the latter argument.
Washington have struggled to stop tight ends all season. They’ve allowed the second-most touchdowns to tight ends in the NFL this year, with eight. The Commanders also allow the second most fantasy points to tight ends, with 12.9 per game.
Likely has been one of the Giants’ most reliable receivers this season, regardless of who's been under centre. He ranks second among New York receivers for targets, with 70. No Giants receiver has scored more than his six touchdowns this year.
With J.J. McCarthy set to start this Thursday, look for him to go to Likely often and for Likely to get on the scoresheet again.
- Commanders vs Giants Pick 2: Isaiah Likely - Anytime Touchdown @ +205 with BetMGM
J.J. McCarthy Rushing Yards - Under 17.5
Despite dealing with a lingering hip injury, J.J. McCarthy is expected to start over Jameis Winston at MetLife Stadium on Thursday. The third-year quarterback has been a reliable passing option this year, with over 240 passing yards in two of his three starts. However, he’s not been a keen runner.
McCarthy has just 51 yards from nine carries this season (5.7 yards per carry) and has only rushed the ball more than twice in one game this season. With his hip injury, it’s hard to see him surging forward with a big run against Washington, so the under on his generous 17.5-yard over/under line feels safe here.
- Commanders vs Giants Pick 3: J.J. McCarthy Rushing Yards - Under 17.5 @ -110 with BetMGM
Commanders vs Giants at US Prediction Markets
US sports traders can buy options on Week 10's opening Thursday Night Football clash between the Washington Commanders and New York Giants across all of the best prediction market apps.
The Giants are narrow favorites among traders, but it's a close run thing. New York is priced at 55¢ on Novig, Kalshi, and Polymarket, with the Commanders at 45¢ and +1.5 point underdogs.
The 50¢ mark for the U/O is low at only 40.5 points too, meaning traders expect this to be a game of strong defense and stuttering offense.
All prices correct at time of publication and subject to change.
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Commanders vs Giants Start Time
The Commanders will be looking to keep their season alive in Week 10 when they head to East Rutherford to take on John Harbaugh’s New York Giants at MetLife Stadium on Thursday night (11/12) at 8:15pm ET. This NFC East matchup will be available to watch live on Amazon Prime video.
Commanders vs Giants Game Details
- Start Time: 8:15pm ET
- Location: MetLife Stadium
- Address: 1 MetLife Stadium Dr, East Rutherford, NJ 07073, United States
- Streaming: Amazon Prime Video