This could prove a tricky test for the Gunners, with Brentford averaging two points per game at home in 2025/26.
Best predictions for Brentford vs Arsenal
- Brentford (1st goal) @ +185
- Under 2.5 goals @ +100
- Dango Ouattara to score or assist @ +270
All odds are courtesy of Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Serious value on the Bees breaking the deadlock
Arsenal have kept clean sheets in their last three games. However, they face a Brentford side averaging almost two goals per game at home. Keith Andrews’ men have also scored first in 67% of their home games so far this season.
By contrast, Arsenal have fallen behind in 50% of their away games so far this season. Yet, the betting markets give the Bees only a 35.71% chance of opening the scoring on Thursday night.
Even if we track Arsenal’s away form, there could be more than 14% of value on the hosts scoring first. Brentford have only been behind at half-time in 25% of their home games this season, which reinforces their reputation as strong starters. This is the obvious value bet from our trio of Brentford vs Arsenal predictions.
- Brentford vs Arsenal Prediction 1: Brentford (1st goal) @ +185
Close encounter expected
Although Brentford average almost two goals scored per home game, Arsenal rarely concede more than one goal on the road. They’ve only conceded more than once in a match in four of their last 15 games in all competitions.
They’ve also won seven of their last eight away games in all competitions. This suggests Brentford may be somewhat contained this week. However, their direct, punishing style will certainly keep the Gunners on their toes.
Five of the last seven meetings between the two sides have featured two or fewer goals scored. Arsenal aim to stifle the Bees early on in the contest and gradually build their way into the contest. Less than a third (28.57%) of their last seven match-ups have seen Under 2.5 Goals bets win. That’s why it’s surprising that Unders are available at a probability of just 52.63% this week.
- Brentford vs Arsenal Prediction 2: Under 2.5 goals @ +100
Backing Ouattara to make an impact
Brentford’s Burkinabé forward, Dango Ouattara, has been a serious asset to Keith Andrews since joining from AFC Bournemouth. He’s slotted in seamlessly at the Gtech Community Stadium, operating as an effective wide forward.
The Burkina Faso international has racked up six goal contributions in 19 EPL appearances so far this season. That’s a goal contribution strike rate of 31.58%. Looking at his short-term form, Ouattara has three goal contributions in his last four appearances. The 23-year-old has been particularly confident since returning from AFCON duty.
The betting markets allow us to back Ouattara to score or assist at a probability of only 27.78% this week. This is already slightly below his average. However, it offers value when considering his form since the start of the year.
- Brentford vs Arsenal Prediction 3: Dango Ouattara to score or assist @ +270
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Brentford 1-1 Arsenal
- Goalscorers prediction – Brentford: Thiago – Arsenal: Gyokeres
Brentford entertain Premier League leaders Arsenal at the Gtech Community Stadium on Thursday night. They aim to close the gap to the top five.
Few could have anticipated Brentford’s staggering start to the 2025/26 Premier League season. Most analysts were tipping the Bees to struggle to avoid relegation. Life after Thomas Frank appears to be going just fine under new rookie boss, Keith Andrews.
Brentford are very much a home team, recording wins over Liverpool and Manchester United this season. They’ve averaged 1.92 goals scored per home game, conceding just one goal per home match. However, Arsenal have historically been tough opponents. They are unbeaten in their last nine meetings with Brentford.
Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal have bounced back from some disappointing results in January and racked up back-to-back wins. This has helped to re-establish the Gunners’ confidence and maintain their six-point lead over Manchester City.
They eased past newly-promoted Leeds at Elland Road and ran out 4-0 winners before a comfortable 3-0 home win over Sunderland. Arsenal have kept clean sheets in their last three games. However, that record will be put firmly to the test by the in-form Bees.
Probable lineups for Brentford vs Arsenal
Brentford expected lineup: Kelleher, Henry, Kayode, Ajer, van den Berg, Henderson, Janelt, Lewis-Potter, Ouattara, Jensen, Thiago
Arsenal expected lineup: Raya, Timber, Calafiori, Gabriel, Saliba, Rice, Zubimendi, Havertz, Madueke, Martinelli, Gyokeres