Miron Muslic has made his team defensively compact. While they can restrict big teams, they don’t offer much in the way of attack.
| Market | Selection | Odds |
| Schalke vs RB Leipzig | Under 3.5 goals | -143 |
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
Schalke’s defensive solidity could frustrate Leipzig
After returning to the Bundesliga, Schalke are trying to be defensively compact to have the best chance of survival.
Miron Muslic led the club to the Bundesliga 2 title last term, and with that, promotion to the German first tier. It makes sense that he wants to ensure his team remain solid at the back, limiting the damage that bigger teams can inflict on them.
After seven league games played, the Miners have scored four goals and conceded seven, producing low numbers for the goals markets. With four of those seven matches finishing below the 2.5 goal line, including three goalless ties, there is a real opportunity here for bettors.
RB Leipzig visit next, but Muslic will be confident of another low-scoring affair. His men held Bayern Munich to a goalless tie at the Veltins-Arena in what was just their second game back in the Bundesliga.
It was a clear demonstration that this Schalke team can keep their opponents at bay, regardless of the quality they may possess in attack.
Defensive structure remains the foundation of Schalke’s approach
Muslic made his philosophy clear ahead of their 2-1 defeat to Freiburg, where he said that defensive organisation was his priority.
He wanted to make Schalke difficult to play against for other teams, but he did mention that his attack needed to step up. His teams usually prioritise compact defensive distances, physical duels, coordinated pressing, and quick transitions over sustained possession.
Yet, he doesn’t want his team to simply sit back in a deep block. Instead, he wants aggressive pressing traps to win possession in dangerous areas for quick turnovers. Having said that, he has demonstrated a willingness to retreat into a compact back five against superior opposition.
A similar scenario played out when he took over at Plymouth Argyle when the club were bottom of the Championship in January last year. By the end of the campaign, Argyle were in the top half of the table for points since his stewardship. It wasn’t enough to save them from the drop, but he did make them difficult to beat.
Muslic prefers that defensive foundation, but wants his team to improve offensively. However, he doesn’t want them to become susceptible to counterattacks, which happened in the final 15 minutes of that Freiburg outing.
Schalke’s attack remains a concern
Defensively, Muslic seems to be getting things right in the Bundesliga, as his Schalke team have conceded seven goals this season. That is more than only Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund.
Their xGA (expected goals against) is 12.94 pre-round, demonstrating an overperformance of 5.94. Simply put, they’ve been giving up more chances to the opposition, but have had some luck or brilliant defensive work to help keep their concessions down.
At the other end of the pitch, Schalke’s numbers remain low, which isn’t ideal. The Miners scored just four goals in their seven games, averaging 0.57 goals per 90, which is the lowest in the division.
Their xG (expected goals) of 7.21 is the third-lowest in the Bundesliga. However, the fact that they scored just four goals indicates they’ve been underperforming in front of goal.
Their three home league matches at the Veltins-Arena produced just one goal, while the home side are yet to open their goal account in front of their fans.
Schalke’s recent home outing saw them lose 1-0 to Mainz, a game where they took nine shots to the visitors’ 10. However, only three of those shots were on target, compared to Mainz’s six, which is a clear indication of where Muslic’s men are failing.
The Leipzig test
Leipzig’s away record also adds to the under-goals market. The visitors have lost all three of their road trips in the Bundesliga this season.
Die Roten Bullen scored only twice in those games and conceded 11 goals. Their limited scoring away from home supports the under argument, but those defensive problems give Schalke an opportunity to end their home drought.
RB Leipzig have been dealing with a congested schedule that has seen them play, on average, every three days. They’ve got a crucial Champions League date with Manchester City just four days after this trip to the Veltins-Arena.
Those factors don’t automatically assume fatigue or rotation, which is why the under 3.5 goals may be the safer option.
It’s worth noting that Schalke have seen an average of 0.33 goals in all of their home league games this season. Schalke’s limited scoring and unusually quiet home matches make under 3.5 the cautious pick.
Leipzig’s overall firepower and away defensive vulnerability remain meaningful risks. Regardless, Schalke and unders might prove to be a trustworthy approach throughout the Bundesliga season.