Cristiano Ronaldo has quit international football after 234 caps, leaving Portugal without their talisman for the first time in over two decades.
| Market | Selection | Odds |
| Nations League outright winner | Portugal | +550 |
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Ronaldo’s retirement raises the question of whether Portugal can cope
Cristiano Ronaldo’s international retirement closes the longest chapter in Portuguese soccer. The 41-year-old finishes with world records of 146 international goals, 234 caps, and 10 hat-tricks since his 2003 debut.
He also added a Euro 2016 title and two Nations League triumphs in 2019 and 2025. Captain since 2008, Ronaldo helped turn Portugal from a gifted team into a team accustomed to competing for major honors.
The ending of his story was messy, to say the least. Portugal lost to eventual champions Spain in the last 16 of the 2026 World Cup, and Ronaldo’s performances drew criticism. Surprisingly, his numbers under Roberto Martinez (0.756 goals per game) were actually higher than under Fernando Santos (0.624). Still, some Portuguese fans and media outlets called for him to be benched.
Under new coach Jorge Jesus, he started the Nations League opener against Wales and missed several chances, finishing with 1.03 xG (expected goals) and seven shots. He recorded the most shots on target (2), shots off target (3), shots inside the box (6), and touches in the opposition box (8) of any other player on the field.
Ronaldo was then named on the bench against Norway on Matchday 2. He was sent out to warm up but ultimately remained on the bench. The decision reportedly infuriated the forward, marking the first time since 2008 that he had been left on the bench for a competitive Portugal game.
When Jesus said he wouldn’t start against Denmark, Ronaldo left the national team camp and insisted he wasn’t retiring. However, the talisman announced his retirement from international soccer last week.
Portugal have continued to perform well without Ronaldo, just as many pundits had called for during the World Cup. The Selecao das Quinas have won all four group games and top their group with two games left to play. The question remains: can Portugal go all the way without their central figure?
Portugal’s case for Nations League glory keeps growing stronger
Portugal are one of only two nations to book their spot in the Nations League quarterfinals. With two fixtures remaining, the goal for Jesus would be to top the group, which they’re on course to do. They have the third-best attack in the competition, averaging 2.3 goals per 90, behind only Spain and England.
They’re not just good up front, but they have also been solid defensively. Their xGA (expected goals against) of 4.6 is the joint-fourth-best in the competition.
Portugal’s run-in is also far kinder than other contenders. With Denmark and Wales still to come, they’re expected to win those games and finish Group 4 on 18 points with a perfect record.
Elsewhere, England and Spain still have to face each other, while France travel to the San Siro to face Italy. Any dropped points among those rivals would only strengthen Portugal’s position. Despite the strength of Portugal’s case as things stand, they’re only fourth favorites behind Spain, France, and England.
Why Portugal’s Nations League betting odds still carry value despite Ronaldo’s exit
The betting markets appear to have reacted to the departure of Portugal’s all-time leading scorer. Their odds have lengthened across the outright winner, goals and Asian Handicap markets. However, that appears to be an overreaction for a squad with incredible depth. For example, Rafael Leao and Carlos Forbs, who have impressed in the Champions League, are ready to fill the void left by Ronaldo.
Jesus’s 28-man squad includes uncapped Alberto Costa and Gustavo Varela. The latter leads the Serie A scoring charts with nine goals. Goncalo Ramos and Ronaldo’s former club teammate Joao Felix have each scored three times in the Nations League. Both are expected to take on greater responsibility in front of goal.
Portugal offer good value to win a third Nations League title at the current prices. For a shorter-priced option, backing them to reach the final is a lower-risk way in. However, four games are not enough to draw firm conclusions, and Portugal are yet to prove they can succeed in knockout soccer without Ronaldo.