Filipe Luis has impressed in his first Ligue 1 season, while Marseille’s poor start under Bruno Genesio has changed the title picture.
| Market | Selection | Odds |
| Monaco vs Toulouse | Monaco to win | -152 |
| Ligue 1 outright winner without PSG | Monaco | +150 |
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
Marseille’s experience meets Monaco’s gamble
Both Monaco and Marseille brought in new managers in the summer. The lofty ambition could have been to challenge Paris Saint-Germain for the Ligue 1 title, but more realistically to secure Champions League qualification. Bruno Genesio was seemingly a safe appointment for Marseille, especially with his years of experience in the division with Lyon, Rennes, and Lille. He led Lille to third place last season, as well as a Champions League spot.
Fans and pundits alike expected him to deliver positive results, and pre-season odds had Marseille primed to finish above Monaco in the league. However, after five games, OM and Genesio have a little crisis on their hands. There is a standoff between the Marseille supporters and the owners, and there have even been calls for Genesio to stand down.Meanwhile, Monaco took a gamble by bringing in a relatively new manager in Filipe Luis from Brazil. Luis enjoyed great success at Flamengo, winning the Brazilian Serie A and the Copa Libertadores in his debut stint as a first-team manager. Even with that success, it was regarded as a risk for Monaco to bring him to France. However, the early signs suggest it is paying off.The early markers
Monaco have taken 13 points from their first five league games under Filipe Luis, with four wins and a draw to sit first in Ligue 1. Marseille, by contrast, are 17th on three points after recording one win and four defeats. That start has already left them with plenty of ground to make up.
Recent results highlight the divide. Monaco beat Marseille and Paris Saint-Germain within the space of five days, which quickly strengthened Filipe Luis' position.Genesio’s Marseille started the campaign with a victory, but it’s all been poor since then. OM have suffered four defeats in a row, all to teams in the current top six.They’ve had their worst start to a Ligue 1 campaign in 15 years, which placed them second from bottom going into the international break. Those elements raise questions about whether Marseille are good enough to get into the European places.
The early markers don’t settle anything over a full season, but the managerial contrast is already clear. One new manager has an unbeaten league start and a side translating performances into points. The other is trying to halt a slide before the table starts to take shape.
The difference is at the back
One of the main reasons for the vast gap between the clubs is defensive control. Monaco have conceded just three goals in five games, with only Lyon shipping fewer, with two. The Monegasques and OM have scored eight and seven goals, respectively, which means the attacking output is not dramatically different.
However, Genesio’s charges have conceded eight goals in five games already, averaging 1.6 goals per 90. In terms of xGA (expected goals against), Marseille recorded 12.17, the highest in the division. Meanwhile, Monaco’s xGA of 6.57 places them safely in the bottom five of the league.
Only Strasbourg (87) faced more shots than Marseille’s 85, which shows they’re far too open at the back. Additionally, Genesio’s men faced 31 shots on target, the joint-most in Ligue 1 alongside Strasbourg. The problems are therefore largely at the back, as Marseille’s attacking numbers remain encouraging. OM have an xG (expected goals) of 8.00, while Monaco only have 6.61. Genesio’s troops rank third for average ball possession at 56.5% and second only to PSG for successful passes in the final third, with 630.Monaco aren’t blowing Marseille away in every department, but they’re defending far better and converting their performances into points more efficiently. Marseille are already facing too much ground to recover.
Momentum behind Monaco
Monaco’s early success and momentum provide a couple of betting options. The first is the long play over the course of the season. Luis’ side are now favourites to finish second behind PSG, although they still offer decent value with that pick.
However, this market can shift quickly, especially if Monaco continue where they left off after the international break. All signs say they will, as they entertain Toulouse at the Stade Louis II. For this reason, it’s worth exploring them to win the league without PSG being considered before their price shortens. Luis’ men are in better form compared to Toulouse, who’ve won just one Ligue 1 fixture so far, and are yet to win an away match. The hosts have a 100% record at home this season and haven’t lost to Toulouse since 2024. The shorter-term option is to back Monaco for three points against opponents they have avoided defeat to in each of their last four meetings.