With Rodri winning the accolade at Man City, could Europe’s top midfielders be in contention too? Declan Rice & Michael Olise are likely candidates.
| 2025-26 Ballon d’Or Winner Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Harry Kane | +250 |
| Lamine Yamal | +350 |
| Kylian Mbappe | +600 |
| Declan Rice | +600 |
| Michael Olise | +600 |
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
- The BetMGM promo code gives players sports bonuses at sign-up
- Learn about more of the best sportsbook promos in the US with our expert guide
- Check out the top sports betting sites via our expert guide
Harry Kane’s Bernabeu heroics make him the clear favourite
Understandably, Harry Kane is standing proudly at the top of the market. The Bayern Munich star player has scored 31 goals in 26 Bundesliga appearances so far this season. He’s also scored 11 goals in 10 Champions League games in 2025/26.
Kane played another crucial role, leading the line for Bayern in their 2-1 UCL quarter-final first leg win at Real Madrid. His performance at the Bernabeu was exceptional, operating with supreme efficiency, as he’s done so often in recent years.
Kane’s six goals in four domestic cup appearances this season mean Bayern are still competing for a treble. The Bundesliga is almost finished, and they are big favourites for the DFB-Pokal and have a real chance of making the UCL semis. If Kane clinches multiple trophies with Bayern and helps England go deep in the World Cup, he’ll be a clear favourite.
Lamine Yamal may need a big World Cup to be in contention
Lamine Yamal has improved his performance this season. After 22 goal contributions in 35 La Liga games last year, Yamal has already recorded 23 goal contributions in 26 appearances in 2025/26.
He’s also surpassed last season’s goal contributions (8) in the Champions League, too, despite having played five games fewer.
Barca are certain to lift the La Liga title, but their shock 2-0 UCL quarter-final first leg loss to Atletico means their UCL ambitions hang by a thread. Yamal would likely need to play a starring role for Spain at the World Cup to pip Kane at this point.
Will lack of club silverware hinder Kylian Mbappe’s chances?
Kylian Mbappe has scored 23 goals in 25 La Liga games so far this season. He’s only seven shy of last season’s goal contributions tally (34), with eight games remaining.
He’s saved many of his best performances for the Champions League in 2025/26. The French forward has scored 14 goals in ten appearances, doubling his UCL return from last season.
Nevertheless, Mbappe’s individual performances are unlikely to yield silverware for his club. Real are well off the pace in La Liga. They also travel to Bayern next week, 2-1 down in their UCL quarter-final tie.
Even if Mbappe continues to record excellent stats, it is unlikely to improve his Ballon d’Or prospects unless Real Madrid win major trophies. Winning the World Cup and the Golden Boot with France could be Mbappe’s only method of securing this award.
Could Declan Rice follow in Rodri’s footsteps?
Manchester City’s Rodri was one of the few midfielders to clinch the Ballon d’Or in decades. His success has made his fellow midfielders viable candidates for the award this season. Arsenal’s influential defensive midfielder, Declan Rice, is a strong contender.
Rice has played a key role in the Gunners’ surge to the top of the Premier League this season. The 27-year-old has been the man of the match in five of his 30 EPL appearances in 2025/26. He has registered nine goal contributions across 30 matches, which is an impressive achievement for a defensive midfielder.
Nevertheless, the only realistic way for Rice to replicate Rodri’s achievement is by winning the Premier League and World Cup trophies this summer.
Michael Olise is another Bayern star shining bright this year
Michael Olise’s form for Bayern Munich has seen the 24-year-old forward attract serious attention in world football. The Frenchman has recorded 29 goal contributions in 26 Bundesliga appearances so far this season.
Olise also has nine goal contributions in ten UCL appearances in 2025/26. This makes Olise almost as influential to Bayern as Harry Kane.
The right winger is deemed to have the same chance as Rice and Mbappe of winning this year’s Ballon d’Or. However, Mbappe is highly likely to perform more prominently than him at the 2026 World Cup for France, so it is difficult to confidently back Olise as the winner currently.