The AFCON qualifiers are still in their early stages, but the upward trend in goals has been hard to ignore.
| Match | Selection | Odds |
| South Africa vs Kenya | Over 2.5 goals | +100 |
| Cape Verde vs Liberia | Over 2.5 goals | +110 |
| Nigeria vs Tanzania | Over 2.5 goals | -182 |
| Tunisia vs Libya | Over 2.5 goals | +115 |
| Mozambique vs Ethiopia | Over 2.5 goals | +120 |
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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South Africa vs Kenya - Expect another Bafana Bafana rout
There has been an average of 2.53 goals per game in the AFCON qualifiers so far. That’s a significant increase on the 2.2 average from the previous qualifying campaign. It is early days, but the upward trend is clear, and the sportsbooks’ goal lines across the board have been slow to react.
We’ll start with a South Africa side that reached the knockouts at the 2026 World Cup and have carried that momentum into qualifying. They have the highest goal average of any side in AFCON qualifying. Their games have averaged 3.5, so the line of over 2.5 goals in this match appeals.
South Africa hammered Eritrea 5-0 in their last qualifier. They were at a similar price with the sportsbooks to win that game as they are to beat Kenya here. The last time Kenya were priced similarly to what they are for this game, they lost 8-0 to Senegal back in November 2025.
We expect another crushing defeat for Kenya, but they are capable of getting on the scoresheet. They tied 1-1 with Eritrea earlier in the qualifiers, which shows they can find a goal against a limited side. South Africa’s firepower should do most of the work, and we expect over 2.5 goals in this match.
Cape Verde vs Liberia - Dangerous attack, shaky defense
Cape Verde were exceptional at the World Cup. They tied with Spain in the group stages and took finalists Argentina to extra time in the knockout rounds. However, the team have failed to carry that momentum into the AFCON qualifiers, particularly that defensive solidity.
Cape Verde have conceded an average of 2.5 goals per game in qualifying so far. Only Chad, Ghana and Eritrea have conceded more per game. That fragility is exactly what drives goal totals up, and it is why the line looks short.
Nevertheless, Cape Verde are favorites against Liberia and carry a significant attacking threat. Their World Cup run showed they can create chances against elite opposition.
A team ranked well below that level should give them plenty of opportunities. Put a shaky defense together with a dangerous attack, and we expect over 2.5 goals.
The record backs it up. There have been three goals or more in both of Cape Verde’s qualifying matches so far. The bet also won in Liberia’s only away match of the campaign so far, a 3-1 defeat to Rwanda. Both sides have been involved in some open games, and we expect more of the same.
Nigeria vs Tanzania - A shorter leg
Nigeria’s AFCON qualifiers also sit well above the competition average for goals. Their games have averaged three goals. That makes over 2.5 goals a solid bet, even at a shorter price than the other picks.
Nigeria opened their qualifying campaign with a 2-1 win over Madagascar. They were similarly priced on the moneyline market for that match as they are for this clash with Tanzania. They followed it up with a 3-0 away defeat to Guinea-Bissau, another match that cleared the line.
The head-to-head points the same way. There were three goals the last time Nigeria faced Tanzania, back in December 2025, when Nigeria won 2-1. Nigeria’s games keep producing goals whether they win or lose, and we expect over 2.5 goals here, the shortest price of the five.
Tunisia vs Libya - Fragile at the back, potent up front
Tunisia have been a potent attacking threat in AFCON qualifying so far, while looking fragile at the back. They face a Libya side that have also struggled defensively, but lack that level of attacking threat.
Tunisia’s qualifiers have averaged three goals per game, with an even split at both ends. That balance is what bettors want to see when backing goals.
The longer-term picture is just as strong. Tunisia’s five competitive matches since the start of the World Cup have averaged four goals per game. The only game that didn’t hit the 2.5 goals mark was the 1-1 tie with Uganda.
Tunisia should have the better of the play, but Libya’s recent results suggest they can threaten. We expect another high-scoring game here.
Mozambique vs Ethiopia - Back the goal machine at odds-against
Mozambique boast one of the strongest offensive records in AFCON qualifying. Their games have averaged 3.5 goals, so they’re a natural fifth option here.
A surprise 1-1 tie with Senegal in their first qualifying match set the tone. Despite having just 34% possession, Mozambique still posed an attacking threat.
They followed that up with a commanding 4-1 win over Sudan, dominating possession and creating plenty of chances. We expect them to pick up where they left off here.
Over 2.5 goals has won in four of Mozambique’s last five competitive matches. The exception was the 1-1 tie with Senegal, which could easily have produced more goals. That consistency shows Mozambique are not reliant on one type of game to produce goals, whether they are the underdogs or in control.
Ethiopia have struggled for goals of late, which is the main reason for caution. Nevertheless, we expect over 2.5 goals at odds-against to land, given Mozambique’s form. If they play with the same confidence they showed against Sudan, they can reach that line themselves. The data in favor of an Ethiopia goal is a bonus.