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bills vs dolphins
Liam Isola

Dolphins vs Bills Predictions, Picks & Odds: NFL Thursday Night Football - Sep 18

Our NFL expert offers his predictions, picks, and odds for Week 3 Thursday Night Football as the Dolphins visit the Bills at 8:15pm EDT (9/18).

The Buffalo Bills (-800) crushed the Jets on Sunday to improve to 2-0. Meanwhile, the 0-2 Miami Dolphins (+550) have given up 33 points in consecutive games. With the Bills averaging 35 points per game, Bills over 34.5 points (+140) may be an interesting pick. 

Dolphins vs Bills Predictions - 8:15pm EDT - 9/18

All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing, and subject to change. 

  • Tua Tagovailoa Under 235.5 Passing Yards @ -110 with bet365
  • James Cook First TD Scorer @ +375 - with bet365
  • Bills Over 34.5 Points @ +140 - with bet365

All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing, and subject to change.

Dolphins vs Bills Odds

  • Spread: Bills -12.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Dolphins (+550), Bills (-800)
  • Total: O/U 49.5

Dolphins vs Bills Picks 

Taming Tua - Tua Tagovailoa Under 235.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa had a big game in the 33-27 loss against the Patriots last Sunday. He completed 26 of 32 passes for 315 yards, two TDs, and an interception. Granted, the Patriots also allowed Geno Smith to rack up 362 passing yards during Week 1. 

The Bills have been much better about grounding opponents’ passing games. In their 30-10 Week 2 victory over the Jets, the Bills allowed just 83 passing yards. Lamar Jackson also threw for just 209 yards against Buffalo in Week 1. 

Tua hasn’t reached more than 231 passing yards in any of his last three games against the Bills. Plus, the Colts held him to just 114 passing yards in Week 1 and intercepted him twice. There’s value to be had on Tua Tagovailoa under 235.5 passing yards, at -110. 

  • Dolphins vs Bills Pick 1: Tua Tagovailoa Under 235.5 Passing Yards @ -110 with bet365

Cooking up a TD - James Cook First TD Scorer (+375)

The Bills didn’t need a big game from MVP quarterback Josh Allen to take down the Jets. Instead, James Cook stepped up with 132 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries. Cook also scored the first touchdown of the 30-10 victory on a one-yard run. 

That now makes six straight regular season games with a touchdown for Cook. The fourth year back out of Georgia ranked fourth in the NFL last season, with 16 rushing TDs. He’s a key cog in a Bills offense that keeps opponents constantly guessing. 

The odds on Cook to be the first touchdown scorer (+375) on Thursday are favorable. With Josh Allen nursing a nose injury, Cook may see more action in the red zone. Take a punt on Cook to score the Bills’ first TD once again. 

  • Dolphins vs Bills Pick 2: James Cook First TD Scorer @ +375 with bet365

Bills Bonanza - Bills Over 34.5 Points (+140)

It’s no secret that the Buffalo Bills have one of the best offenses in football. They have scored 40 points or more in four of their last seven regular season games. While QB Josh Allen took a shot to the nose on Sunday, he’s downplayed the injury and should be near his best on Thursday. 

The Dolphins have given up 33 points in two straight games to kick off the season and have a shaky secondary. With a license to air it out, the Bills should be able to tear up the Dolphins’ defense on Thursday night. 

Buffalo averaged 34.1 points per game at home last season and managed to put 41 on a tough Ravens defense in Week 1. It wouldn’t at all be shocking if Allen and the Bills reach 40 points here, so Bills over 34.5 points (+140) is a good value bet. 

  • Dolphins vs Bills Pick 3: Bills Over 34.5 Points @ +140 with bet365

Dolphins vs Bills Start Time

The Bills have won each of their last six games against the Dolphins and are huge favorites for this Week 3 Thursday Night Football game. Miami’s defense has looked pedestrian against average offenses, so the Dolphins have their work cut out for them here. 

Dolphins vs Bills Game Details 

  • Start Time: 8:15pm EDT
  • Location: Highmark Stadium
  • Address: 1 Bills Dr, Orchard Park, NY 14127
  • Streaming: Amazon Prime Video, NFL+