The stage is set for a dramatic finale to the league phase. Goal difference is likely to be a major factor in determining the final standings.
| Champions League goals markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Barcelona vs Copenhagen - Over 4.5 goals | +150 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt vs Tottenham - Over 3.5 goals | +163 |
| Ajax vs Olympiacos - Over 3.5 goals | +163 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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Why the final matchday could see the goals fly in across Europe
UEFA brought in the new league-phase format partly to increase suspense right up to the final matchday. Next Wednesday promises exactly that kind of high-stakes scenario.
All 18 Champions League matches will kick off simultaneously, and nearly every team has something to play for. The race for the top eight is on a knife edge, with the clubs ranked between sixth and 13th all on 13 points.
All of those sides need to win to stand a realistic chance of direct passage to the round of 16. It’s a similar scenario for Tottenham and most likely Liverpool, who are both currently just above that group of teams.
Further down the table, several clubs are chasing victories as they push for the top 24. With so many coaches likely to take risks, goals could fly in.
There has been an average of 3.39 goals per match in the league phase so far. That equates to one every 27 minutes, with 58% of all goals coming in the second half. The various permutations at play suggest we’ll see plenty of action in the final third as the league phase concludes.
Last season, there was an average of 3.27 goals per game across the entire tournament, excluding the qualifying rounds. However, the final matchday in the initial phase averaged 3.56 goals per 90 minutes. Half of gameweek eight fixtures featured four or more goals.
With even more clubs in need of victories this year, there’s reason to expect more goals than on previous matchdays. That suggests bettors can find value in a number of fixtures around Europe.
Where to expect high-scoring games
Barcelona’s home clash with FC Copenhagen is certainly one that stands out. The Catalans are currently one place outside the top eight by virtue of goal difference. That leaves them chasing a big win against a team that have conceded 2.43 goals per game so far.
Champions League matches involving Hansi Flick’s side have averaged 4.43 goals per 90 minutes this term. That’s more than any other club, aside from Borussia Dortmund. Backing over 4.5 goals is therefore appealing, with an implied probability of 41.7% at Camp Nou.
Eintracht Frankfurt don’t lag far behind Barca, with their UCL matches averaging 4.14 goals. Unfortunately for the Germans, most of those have gone against them. They have the joint-worst defensive record in the competition, conceding 19 times so far.
That’s good news for Tottenham, who visit Deutsche Bank Park in their final fixture. Thomas Frank’s side will need to go all out for three points against already-eliminated opponents. Backing over 3.5 goals appears to offer value, with an implied probability of 38.1%.
Over in Amsterdam, Ajax’s clash with Olympiacos will be one of the key fixtures in the race for the top 24. The visitors currently occupy the final knockout phase play-off place. However, a draw won’t suffice. Their opponents are two points further back and need to win to stand any chance.
That should be the recipe for an open encounter. Over 3.5 goals has landed in five of Ajax’s last six matches in all competitions. Backing a repeat could be the smart move as both sides bid to stay in the Champions League on Wednesday.