Xabi Alonso may be close to parting ways with Real Madrid following back-to-back home defeats, with a return to Anfield not out of the question.
| Liverpool & Real Madrid Markets | Odds |
| Alaves vs Real Madrid - Alaves or Tie | +115 |
| Brighton to score over 1.5 goals vs Liverpool | +170 |
| Tottenham vs Liverpool - Tottenham or Tie | +125 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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Slot and Alonso on the brink
Having guided Liverpool to only their second Premier League title last term, Arne Slot’s job was seemingly secure in August. Five straight victories for the Reds to start their title defence only strengthened his position.
Meanwhile, Xabi Alonso was still settling into his new role. The Basque coach was seen as the rare case of a Real Madrid boss who would be given time to get it right.
Similar to Slot’s Liverpool, Los Blancos registered plenty of good results early in the campaign. They’ve won 13 of their first 14 matches in all competitions. Therefore, it’s surprising that by December, both managers are reportedly close to being dismissed.
It appears that Alonso is in the most immediate danger. Real Madrid suffered a 2-1 defeat to Manchester City on Wednesday, marking their second home loss in four days. They have won only two of their eight games across all competitions.
Ominously for the Real Madrid boss, his players are reportedly unhappy with him. Initially, Vinicius Junior has reacted angrily to being substituted twice. He notably did not mention his coach when he apologized after the second incident.
However, recent reports suggest a number of other players are also unsatisfied. The team lacks a clear playing style, and many stars seem to want a more relaxed atmosphere.
The situation in Madrid only serves to increase the pressure that has been building on Slot on Merseyside. Alonso has long been suggested as a future Liverpool boss and was the leading candidate for the job when Jurgen Klopp announced his departure.
Is it worth betting against the struggling European giants?
Liverpool lost nine times during a terrible 12-game period between September and November. They were the clear favourites to win for most of those matches, so backing the underdogs proved very profitable.
Mohamed Salah’s public criticism of the Dutchman only added to his problems last weekend, following a 3-3 draw at Leeds. A 1-0 Champions League win away to Inter in midweek did slightly ease the pressure. Also, a change to a midfield diamond, with Alexander Isak and Hugo Ekitike operating as a front two, appeared to work.
However, bettors should be aware that Inter have consistently struggled in the big games. They’ve lost their last four matches, where they’ve been odds-against in the 1x2 market.
Improving performance in the Premier League is Slot’s top priority, with Brighton his team’s next opponents. Only three teams can better the Seagulls’ tally of 25 goals in the English top flight this term. Fabian Hurzeler’s side have already scored twice away to Man Utd, and three times away to Chelsea.
Liverpool have conceded three or more goals in six of their last 11 fixtures in all competitions. Therefore, backing Brighton to score over 1.5 goals with an implied probability of 36.4% seems to offer value.
After this match, they will play against Tottenham away next weekend. Spurs’ last two home performances have been much improved, with comfortable wins-to-nil against Brentford and Slavia Prague. Betting against the struggling Reds in that game may again be the smart choice.
Meanwhile, Alonso may only have one more game as Real Madrid boss. His side travels to Alaves on Sunday with at least six defenders unavailable. Kylian Mbappe may not play, as he failed to feature against Man City in midweek.
Alaves have the joint-second-best defensive record in La Liga, with only 15 goals conceded in 15 games. They are at value to avoid defeat with an implied probability of 43.5%.