With Villa in the Premier League’s bottom three, a Europa League clash with Bologna becomes a must-win to rebuild confidence at Villa Park.
Best bets for Aston Villa vs Bologna
- Tie @ +260 with BetMGM
- Under 2.5 goals @ -135 with BetMGM
- Aston Villa under 1.5 goals (Total Goals) @ -130 with BetMGM
All odds are courtesy of BetMGM, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Villa to be held by gutsy Italians
There appears to be good value in backing a draw in this Europa League fixture. The betting markets currently price the draw at a probability of only 28.57%, but Villa have drawn three of their first five Premier League games.
Although Villa remain difficult to beat, they aren’t doing anywhere near enough to win games. With the expectant Villa Park crowd growing increasingly impatient, we can envisage Bologna quietening the home fans in the opening exchanges and making it a dull, frustrating affair.
The real probability of a draw lies closer to the 33% mark, which gives us more than 4% of potential value on this selection.
- Aston Villa vs Bologna Bet 1: Tie @ +260 with BetMGM
Hard not to back a low-scoring affair
With Villa scoring once in five Premier League games and Bologna averaging fewer than a goal scored per Serie A game in 2025/26, it’s surprising we can back under 2.5 goals at a probability of 56.50%.
Bologna will be more than happy with a draw from this contest. Vincenzo Italiano’s side are likely to line up with a rigid shape and invite Villa to break them down. Villa have had serious issues playing through low blocks of late.
Even if Villa do take control of this contest, it’s hard to see them scoring more than one goal, let alone three goals. That’s why this feels like the value bet of our trio of Aston Villa vs Bologna predictions.
- Aston Villa vs Bologna Bet 2: Under 2.5 goals @ -135 with BetMGM
Goal-shy Villa to score no more than one on Thursday night
Given that Villa have failed to score in 80% of games so far in the 2025/26 Premier League, it’s hugely surprising to see that we can back Villa to score one goal or fewer on Thursday night at a probability of just 55.56%.
With growing questions over Unai Emery’s long-term future at Villa Park, the uncertainty will continue to spread throughout the team and into the stands. It’s hard to see the players suddenly clicking and hammering Bologna with several goals.
Bologna have only conceded three goals in four Serie A games so far this season. This suggests Italiano’s side also have a resolute defensive structure that Villa could find hard to break down, especially when they are low on confidence.
- Aston Villa vs Bologna Bet 3: Aston Villa under 1.5 goals (Total Goals) @ -130 with BetMGM
Our analysis: Form of both teams
Aston Villa are going through a difficult spell at present, but their 2025/26 Europa League campaign starts against Bologna this week and gives them a chance to hit the reset button.
The pressure is rising on Villa boss, Unai Emery, with Villa sitting 18th in the Premier League table, with just three points on the board after five matches. The most concerning aspect for Villa is their ineffective goal output, having managed just one goal in five games.
Emery is still searching for a winning formula in the final third. He is looking for the right partnerships and connections, which can prove difficult when several new faces are brought in over the summer. The club’s recruitment strategy has clearly been questioned at the club’s highest level following the recent sacking of Villa’s president of footballing operations, Monchi.
Bologna will travel to Birmingham in buoyant mood following their last-gasp victory over Genoa at the weekend. Their 99th-minute penalty goal snatched a 2-1 win and moved Vincenzo Italiano’s men back to within two points of the Europa League qualification places in Serie A.
With two wins and two defeats so far in Serie A, there’s no doubt that Thursday night’s contest is between two sides that have struggled for consistency in the opening month of the season.
Probable lineups for Aston Villa vs Bologna
Aston Villa expected lineup: Martinez; Cash, Digne, Konsa, Mings, McGinn, Kamara, Guessand, Elliott, Rogers, Watkins
Bologna expected lineup: Skorupski; De Silvestri, Miranda, Vitik, Heggem, Freuler, Moro, Orsolini, Dominguez, Bernardeschi, Castro