World Cup Golden Boot race for the ages: Why Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe and Erling Haaland are defying history - and how it could shape the Ballon d'Or

The 2014 World Cup was a fine show. It was full of captivating games, including a handful of remarkable goals, and had a deserving winner in Germany. In that sense, it was a success.

But that tournament will perhaps always be associated with one moment. In the first half of Colombia's knockout clash with Uruguay, the ball popped up to James Rodriguez. The easiest move would have been to shuttle it along, find a pass, or bring it down. Instead, the attacking midfielder popped the ball up on his chest, watched it drop onto his left foot, and smacked it into the top corner from 25 yards out. It won the Puskas Award that year, and remains one of the finest goals to grace the World Cup.

And that's all these tournaments are, really: collections of moments. A pretty good indicator of age among football fans is not just the first World Cup you remember, but more accurately the first World Cup goal you remember. For a generation, the memory will be 2014 and James's volley. He scored five other goals that World Cup, and claimed the Golden Boot. That was his tournament, based on that moment. And the Golden Boot was all of that, looped into one. This is, in effect, an individual accolade that rewards collections of solo inspiration.

Whether it is indicative of team success, though, is up for debate. Since Ronaldo's Golden Boot-winning tournament in 2002, no World Cup-winning side has also contained the tournament's top scorer. Mbappe won it in 2022. Kane claimed it in 2018. Rodriguez took it in 2014. Thomas Muller won it in 2010. Miroslav Klose finished top in 2006. None lifted the trophy that year. Peer over the recent winners, then, and their influence on team success is a bit of a mixed bag.

Mbappe won it in 2022, his stats boosted by his hat-trick in the final. Argentina were the better team on the day, but it's hard to ask more out of Mbappe, from a pure offensive standpoint, in that game. Harry Kane claimed the award in 2018, largely thanks to a three-goal showing against Panama in the group stage. But the harsh truth of that tournament is that Kane faded in the big moments and England were deserved losers to Croatia in the semifinals. Rodriguez's Colombia were a lively dark horse, but they lost in the last eight. Thomas Muller won it in 2010, but Germany fell in the semis to eventual winners Spain.

Only 2002, when Ronaldo famously carried Brazil to a World Cup after a slew of what should have been career-ending injuries, did individual goalscoring achievement lead to team success. That is perhaps the most complete World Cup campaign ever: eight goals, including two in the final and the winner in the semis. It was enough, in the end, to win him the Ballon d'Or.

The truth is that football has evolved into far more of a team sport since then. The most successful squads tend not to be the most star-laden, but usually the most well-balanced. Argentina are effective because they allow for Messi's lack of defensive effort by building a system that highlights his attacking skills - and makes up for his weaknesses without the ball.

Spain are excellent in possession and well-structured when they don't have it. France's tactics are, admittedly, harder to pin down. But their hard-working midfielders and disciplined full backs allow their attackers to shine. Ousmane Dembele's work rate is also more apparent when he wears his national team shirt.

Yet soccer finds itself in a unique spot. This is a bit of a clash between eras. Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo are certainly playing their last World Cups. The next generation of superstars are well into their primes, too. Right now, there are seven elite attackers with a real shot at this thing: Messi, Mbappe, Erling Haaland, Dembele, Vinicius Jr, Harry Kane and Ronaldo. It would not be a surprise to see any of them win it.

Messi leads the race with six goals, and he should still be the favorite here. The Argentine is less involved these days, and it is clear that his legs are starting to fail him a little (he's 39). But he bagged three goals against Algeria, two against Austria, and added a third against Jordan - all while making it look remarkably easy.

The next few potential opponents - with all the necessary respect here - look equally susceptible to some Messi magic. Cape Verde have been the surprise of the tournament, and kept Spain off the scoresheet. But Argentina will be strong favorites in that game. Should they win that, one of Australia and Egypt is next. On the same quadrant of their bracket are Ghana, Colombia, Switzerland, and Algeria. Those are fertile contests. Messi broke the record for World Cup career goals earlier this tournament. He could hit double digits before the quarterfinals.

And then there's Mbappe, the man who has become Messi's great rival in the World Cup. They have faced off twice in this forum. Mbappe won the first contest, in 2018's Round of 16 (Mbappe scored two in the game that announced his arrival to the world). Messi claimed round two in the 2022 final (even if Mbappe bagged three).

The Frenchman hasn't found his best form, which is a bit of an absurd thing to acknowledge considering he scored four across France's first two games and has two assists. But he still looks a bit loose. France aren't quite fluid yet. The movements aren't quite there, the chemistry still building. Sweden seem like fine prey, though. And then, Mbappe's big game vibes should be enough to make a serious challenge.

And then there's everyone else, none of whom should be counted out. Kane seemed to have established himself in the race early. He bagged twice in England's first game (despite needing to retake a missed penalty to get off the mark). But he followed that by blasting a golden chance over the bar in the second game. He found the net again in the third, but is still yet to get into the same kind of goalscoring positions that will make him a real contender. Haaland scored four in his first tw and was then rested for Norway's final group game.

Vinicius Jr. should also be considered a serious threat. He will have to show up if the Selecao are to make a run, and he has been more clinical than in major tournaments of old (four in three games doubled his best effort of two goals at the 2024 Copa America). There's also Ronaldo. His role for Portugal is puzzling. He no longer seems particularly interested in passing the ball, or really being all that much of a team player. It's genuinely difficult to remember the last time such a world-class individual became so self-centered in their footballing approach. His knockout record is pretty woeful. But when he is on the pitch, then he is always in the right position to score. And even at 41, he can still be lethal.

A word, too, for surprise contenders. Folarin Balogun is on fire for the U.S. A performance against Bosnia and Herzegovina will put him in the running. And who knows from there? Brian Brobbey is scoring for fun for the Netherlands. He can't be ruled out, either.

For some contenders, though, a golden boot will mean a little more. Kane should be considered a frontrunner for the Ballon d'Or, but Bayern Munich's lack of Champions League success will count against him. Mbappe was La Liga's top scorer, but the fact that Real Madrid did not win a trophy will hurt his case. Ousmane Dembele's PSG won everything they could - but did he contribute enough as an individual to claim the award for a second straight year? And then, of course, there's Messi. MLS has, historically, not been looked upon as a ground for Ballons d'Or winners to make their mark. Could a Golden Boot win and World Cup success put his name in the mix, despite the lack of domestic prestige?

Yet perhaps the most compelling part of this all is that this can be appreciated, enjoyed, talked about. Golden Boots do not always indicate team success. But they do serve as a pretty compelling measure of moments. And if moments are what we treasure in World Cups, why not appreciate the best in football, slugging it out? Mbappe, Haaland, Messi, Ronaldo, Vinicius, Kane; these are the absolute elites, and they are all scoring consistently for their countries at the World Cup.

These are the things that football fans dream of. Not all six of them can win the tournament this summer. In the end, none of them could. But if they are to produce to the levels required to claim the Golden Boot this year, then 2026 will certainly have plenty of moments to remember.