Is Neymar's World Cup dream already over? Carlo Ancelotti can't afford to take huge risk on unreliable Santos superstar

Neymar had little choice but to retrace his steps to boyhood club Santos in February last year, after his contract at Al-Hilal was terminated. His time in the Middle East was a complete disaster because he never fully recovered from the ACL injury he suffered when playing for Brazil against Uruguay in October 2023 (the last time he turned out for his nation), and Santos were the only club willing to give him an olive branch, more out of nostalgia than anything else.

To some extent, the huge outlay on Neymar's salary paid off for Santos. He scored 11 goals and laid on five assists in the 2025 season, playing a key role in the club's dramatic escape from the relegation zone. The problem was his fitness issues did not subside.

He missed 18 matches in all competitions while dealing with a persistent hamstring problem, while ugly clashes with supporters threatened to completely sour his homecoming at one stage. The tension eventually died down, but Neymar was forced to play through the pain of a knee injury at the end of the campaign, before undergoing more surgery.

Despite the turbulence, Santos then decided to extend Neymar's contract until December 2026, giving him renewed hope of a Brazil recall. Unsurprisingly, though, it didn't last long.

Although Santos had to make do without Neymar for the start of the 2026 season, he was back on the pitch by mid-February, stepping off the bench in a 6-0 Campeonato Paulista rout of Velo Clube. He set up one of Gabriel ‘Gabigol’ Barbosas' two goals, and showed no signs of lost confidence, dipping into his deep repertoire of tricks to elude opponents at every opportunity.

However, he was also guilty of a horror miss from barely eight yards out, and gave possession away 15 times. It was not a particularly encouraging performance, with the sub-par standard of the opposition also factored in.

The 34-year-old was also questioned about his physical condition after the game, and struck a defiant tone. CazeTV: "Santos has put an excellent plan. Of course, I wanted to come back to help my team, but in the end, I preferred to rest myself so I could come back at 100%, pain-free, fear-free, and in top form. I'm happy and relieved to be back a little stronger than before. Obviously, I need to get back into my rhythm, but with perseverance I'll reach 100%. I'm taking it step by step."

Neymar then concluded with a major bombshell. "I don't know what the future holds for me. It's possible that in December I'll want to retire. I'm living day by day," he added. "This year is crucial, not only for Santos, but also for the Brazilian national team and for me."

Going public with retirement thoughts raised instant doubts over whether he really believed he could get back to 100%. Perhaps he intended to hammer home the fact it would be his last World Cup, but It's likely that the revelation just served as another red flag for Ancelotti, who had already said in December that he doesn't "owe" Neymar anything.

Neymar was selected to start Santos' next game in the Campeonato Paulista: a quarter-final tie against Brazilian second tier club Novorizontino. A favourable game on paper turned out to be anything but in reality for Santos as they slumped to a dismal 2-1 defeat, and Neymar failed to leave a lasting impact on the contest, recording only one successful cross and a dismal pass completion rate of 73%, with ESPN calling him out for an "absurd mistake" in the build-up to the home team's first goal.

There was also a worrying moment that saw Neymar chase down a loose ball in painfully slow fashion, ultimately powerless to prevent it trickling out of play. The footage went viral, with one fan declaring "he can't make the World Cup in this state" and another claiming "[Viktor] Gyokeres is faster" in a shot at Neymar's loss of pace.

The Santos academy jewel silenced some of critics four days later, firing the team to a 2-1 Serie A win against Vasco Da Gama, scoring both goals. His first was a lovely first-time finish into the far corner, and he topped it with a superb dink over the goalkeeper to secure a crucial three points for Santos. No footballer on the planet better fits the "form is temporary, class is permanent" adage than Neymar.

Frustration nearly always follows, though, and this time was no different. Neymar was a surprise last-minute absentee from Santos' next league game away at Mirassol, which Ancelotti reportedly attended purely to check in on his progress. Citing workload management as an excuse, Neymar did not even show up at the stadium - a call that was, understandably, "very poorly received" by the Brazilian football federation (CBF), according to CNN.

Although Neymar returned for a subsequent meeting with Corinthians, and bagged an assist as Santos battled to a 1-1 draw, it was not nearly enough to win Ancelotti over. He couldn't muster a shot on target, despite playing the full 90 minutes, and only won three of his 11 ground duels, with two of Ancelotti's assistants watching on.

Sure enough, the former Real Madrid boss did not include Neymar in his final 26-man Brazil squad for the March international break. "Neymar is not at 100% and therefore he is not on the list," Ancelotti said when pushed to explain the Santos captain's omission. "Neymar is not at 100% of his capability. If he can be at 100% physically, he can be there. Neymar could be at the World Cup. Neymar has to keep working, playing, showcasing his qualities and maintaining good physical condition."

All things considered, that was a more than fair message. Ancelotti didn't have to leave the door open for Neymar at all, and he should have been grateful for that. Suffice it to say, though, he wasn't.

"I'm going to speak out here, because I can't just let this pass," he told the media at an event in Sao Paulo. "Obviously, I'm upset and sad not to have been selected. But the focus remains the same, day after day, training session after training session, match after match. We'll achieve our goal. There's still one final squad announcement to go and the dream lives on. That's it, we're in this together."

Neymar is delusional if he genuinely believes he deserves to be included ahead of any of the eight forwards Ancelotti picked, even including Zenit Saint Petersburg's Luiz Henrique, who has scored only three goals in 20 Russian Premier League matches this term. Henrique pales in comparison ability wise, but he's far more reliable.

The staggering sense of entitlement doesn't help Neymar's cause. Indeed, CNN has claimed that the CBF saw his outburst as an attempt to create an "us versus them" dynamic between his fans, the organisation, and Ancelotti. There's no way of knowing for sure whether that was Neymar's intention, but it's certainly true that he is not putting the harmony of the national team above himself.

Neymar shrugged off the disappointment to score his third goal of the season in a Serie A clash with Internacional last week, but Santos still slumped to a 2-1 defeat. The final result cost Juan Pablo Vojvoda his job as manager, and left Santos just one point above the drop zone.

The club immediately announced former coach Cuca as Vojvoda's successor, and he has quickly been brought up to speed on how to handle Neymar. Cuca left the Brazil international out of his first game back at Cruzeiro, which ended in a 0-0 stalemate, explaining to reporters: "I spoke with him separately. He won't play on Sunday because he played two games in a row. We can't take that risk."

If Santos can't take that risk, how on earth can Brazil? The Peixe only have eight fixtures left before Ancelotti names his final squad for the World Cup, and by Cuca's logic, Neymar will only feature in half of them at best.

Even if he conjured up four successive hat-tricks, Ancelotti can't put his trust in a half-fit Neymar. He doesn't need to, either. Brazil are blessed with unrivalled depth upfront, led by Vinicius Junior, who plays in Neymar's favoured left-wing slot.

Gabriel Martinelli is also a better option on that side, and Neymar is well behind Raphinha, Matheus Cunha and Joao Pedro in the No.10 reckoning. Ancelotti could take him as an impact substitute, but the pressure to use him more frequently could easily create a distracting sideshow that Brazil must avoid in their pursuit of a record-extending sixth star.

Ancelotti should continue to take a hard stance on Neymar as the noise increases three months out from the World Cup. Brazil legend Romario added to it over the weekend, telling Esporte Espetacula: "Brazil has a better chance if Neymar is there. If Neymar isn't there, Brazil's chances are much lower. If he's at 50%, I would take Neymar."

Neymar also has the backing of ex-Brazil team-mate Thiago Silva, who has told TNT Sports: "If Neymar is fit, he has to play in the World Cup. Given his current level of play, he has to go. It’s indisputable. Neymar is there, on the pitch, and for the opposing team, he’s already a real headache."

That last line was true between 2010, the year Neymar won the first of his 128 caps, and 2022, when he scored a superb solo goal against Croatia in the quarter-finals of the Qatar World Cup. In a lean era for a Brazil squad lacking the talent of past iterations, Neymar was the undisputed talisman; he almost single-handedly kept them competitive and earned a place in history by breaking Pele's national team goals record.

But Neymar hasn't played against world-class opposition in a very long time, and even if he was fully fit, the re-adjustment period required on the biggest stage would be too long. His standing in the game would be better served if he withdrew himself from the running now and became a cheerleader for his country instead of a stage five clinger.

The appreciation he is due from tiresome pundits like Rooney will come eventually, because of the scarcity of true mavericks in the modern game. Neymar is one of the greatest players of his generation and has nothing to prove to anyone. A missing World Cup winners' medal doesn't change that.