After stunning the football world by finishing 2nd in their group, Cape Verde have been rewarded with a Round of 32 clash against Lionel Messi and co.
Best bets for Argentina vs Cape Verde
- Argentina -2 (Handicap 3-Way) at odds of 2.55 with Tonybet
- Lionel Messi to score 2+ goals at odds of 3.52 with Tonybet
- 1st Half (Argentina to score 2+ goals) at odds of 2.80 with Tonybet
All odds are courtesy of Tonybet, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Argentina to win with at least a three-goal margin
Argentina have been in electric mood in front of goal so far this tournament. It all started with Messi’s hat-trick helping the Argentines to a 3-0 win over an Algerian side ranked 29th in the world.
Compare this with Cape Verde’s 64th world ranking, and it’s easy to see why we believe a win by a three-goal margin is possible. Cape Verde racked up just 0.21 xG against Spain, so it’s hard to see them scoring against Argentina.
The betting markets believe there’s only a 40% chance of an Argentina win by a three-goal margin. If they break the Blue Sharks’ resolve early on, the game could quickly turn one-sided.
- Argentina vs Cape Verde Bet 1: Argentina -2 (Handicap 3-Way) at odds of 2.55 with Tonybet
Value on Messi to run riot against the Cape Verdeans
Messi has already proven that he is still very much at the peak of his powers. He’s scored six goals in three group stage games, averaging two goals per game at this summer’s finals. Messi’s time with Inter Miami appears to have helped him acclimatise well to the games in North America.
Despite the much-weakened opposition on Saturday, the betting markets believe there’s only a 29.41% chance of Messi scoring a brace.
That’s despite him having a 100% strike rate of doing so at this tournament. This looks like the most obvious value bet from our trio of Argentina vs Cape Verde predictions. Messi’s low centre of gravity still makes him a nightmare for low-block defences to handle.
- Argentina vs Cape Verde Bet 2: Lionel Messi to score 2+ goals at odds of 3.52 with Tonybet
Two or more first-half goals for the Argentines
Argentina scored twice inside the opening 30 minutes in their final group match against Jordan. The Jordanians are of a similar standard to Cape Verde, who tried to contain Argentina and failed.
If Argentina open the scoring within the first 10-15 minutes, the Cape Verdeans’ game plan will be out of the window. A second first-half goal would likely follow.
We can back two or more first-half goals for Argentina at a probability of only 36.36%. A three-pronged attack of Lautaro Martinez, Julian Alvarez and Messi should be too strong for the Blue Sharks to handle.
- Argentina vs Cape Verde Bet 3: 1st Half (Argentina to score 2+ goals) at odds of 2.80 with Tonybet
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Argentina 3-0 Cape Verde
- Goalscorers prediction: Argentina: Messi x2, Martinez
Few could’ve predicted that Cape Verde would reach the knockout stage of the 2026 World Cup. They’ve arguably been handed one of the toughest assignments in the last 32 against Lionel Messi’s Argentina.
The Argentines dominated their group stage. They won all three of their group games, scoring eight goals and conceding only one goal. Messi was the star of the show, scoring a hat-trick against Algeria and three more in wins over Jordan and Austria.
Argentina have been fast starters in their group stage games. They scored twice inside the opening half hour against Jordan. They also managed first-half goals against Austria and Algeria respectively.
It’s impressive to say that Cape Verde remain unbeaten at this summer’s finals. It all started with a staggering goalless draw against tournament favourites Spain. That was followed by competitive draws against Uruguay and Saudi Arabia.
Against Spain, a nation of similar quality to Argentina, Cape Verde surrendered possession throughout. They had less than a quarter (24%) of the ball in the 90 minutes. They were heavily indebted to a stunning goalkeeping performance from veteran Vozinha. The 40-year-old pulled off eight magnificent saves to keep the Spaniards at bay.
Probable lineups for Argentina vs Cape Verde
Argentina expected lineup: E. Martinez, Molina, Otamendi, Tagliafico, Romero, De Paul, Mac Allister, Fernandez, Messi, Alvarez, L. Martinez
Cape Verde expected lineup: Vozinha, Moreira, Stopira, Lopes, Costa, Monteiro, Rodrigues, Cabral, Duarte, Mendes, Livramento