No. 8 Villanova are back in the Big Dance in their first season under new coach Kevin Willard. The Wildcats had missed the three March Madness tournaments. No. 9 Utah State (-1.5) are playing in their fourth consecutive tournament and are the betting favourites to advance to the next round.
Villanova vs Utah State Predictions - 4:10pm EST - 3/20
- Utah State Moneyline (-120)
- Over 147.0 (-110)
- Bryce Lindsay Over 2.5 Threes Made (+135)
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing, and subject to change.
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Villanova vs Utah State Odds
- Spread: Utah State - 1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Utah State (-120)
- Total: O/U 147.0 (-110)
Villanova vs Utah State Picks
Utah State Moneyline (-120)
Ahead of this season, Villanova had missed three straight March Madness tournaments. Despite this, the Wildcats are still a team with a huge history that casuals expect to do well.
Before the last three years, Villanova had made it to 16 of 17 tournaments and won two national titles. Utah State, meanwhile, have won only one March Madness game in the last 24 years. Despite this gulf in pedigree, the Aggies look primed to win on Friday at the Viejas Arena.
Jerrod Calhoun’s team has all the momentum heading into March Madness, after dominating the 2026 Mountain West Conference tournament. Villanova, on the other hand, crashed out of the Big East Tournament with a 78-64 loss to Georgetown.
Utah State also has a better record against top teams. The Aggies have a 4-4 record against Quad 1 teams, while Villanova’s Quad 1 record is just two wins and six losses.
It would technically be an upset based on March Madness seeding, but if these trends hold, Utah State should advance to the Round of 32.
- Villanova vs Utah State Prediction 1: Utah State Moneyline @ -120
OVER 147.0 (-110)
According to the March Madness betting odds, this should be one of the closest games of the Round of 64. Given Villanova’s limitations though, it could easily be a blowout for Utah State.
The Aggies averaged over 81.7 points per game this season and rank in the top 30 nationally for both average margin of victory (+10.8) and offensive efficiency (1.160). In other words, they have a lot of firepower and know how to win big.
We can’t say the same for Villanova. The Wildcats averaged only 67 points per game against tournament teams, so we can’t expect them to light up the Aggies. On the other hand, Villanova’s defence isn’t anything special and shouldn’t be relied on in a big game, as they showed against Georgetown at the Big East Tournament.
If Utah State’s momentum holds and Villanova continue to perform as they have recently, the Aggies should put up big numbers on Friday.
- Villanova vs Utah State Prediction 2: OVER 147.0 @ -110
Bryce Lindsay OVER 2.5 Threes Made (+135)
Last season, Utah State had one of the best three-point defences in college basketball. The Aggies allowed opponents to shoot just 29% from three, which was the third-best record among NCAA Division I teams. This year, the Mountain West team has regressed.
Utah State has the 15th-worst three-point defence (33.8% allowed) among March Madness teams. The Aggies also have a fairly-average record for total three-pointers attempted against (22.6 per game).
Villanova, conversely, are one of the most three-point centric teams in the league. A whopping 37.4% of the Wildcats’ points come from beyond the arc (the NCAA average is 31.3%). They average 27.3 three-point attempts per game — 45th most in Division I and 16th most among March Madness teams.
If Villanova struggle like we expect them to, they’re going to attempt a lot of threes. Bryce Lindsay, the Wildcats’ best three-point option, isn’t in the best form right now, but he’s been remarkably consistent this year. In the 14 games that Lindsay has taken over 7 threes, he’s made over 2.5 threes in 10 of them.
Upsetting Utah State will be difficult, but Lindsay should be able to make OVER 2.5 threes on Friday.
- Villanova vs Utah State Prediction 3: Bryce Lindsay OVER 2.5 Threes Made @ +135
Villanova vs Utah State Start Time
- Start Time: 4:10pm EST
- Location: Viejas Arena
- Address: 5500 Canyon Crest Dr, San Diego, CA 92182
- TV & Streaming: TSN, TSN+
No. 8 versus No. 9 matchups are always a coin flip. But, for us, there is a clear favourite for this one. Villanova may have the better pedigree and the higher seed going into this NCAA National Tournament game, but we’re backing Utah State to advance to the next round.