The Three Lions lost their last competitive meeting with Uruguay at the 2014 World Cup. Will things be different at Wembley on Friday night?
Best bets for England vs Uruguay
- England -1 (Handicap 3-Way) at odds of 2.25 with bet365
- Uruguay Under 0.5 goals at odds of 2.10 with bet365
- Cole Palmer Anytime goalscorer at odds of 3.25 with bet365
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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England to prevail by a two-goal margin or better
England’s form at Wembley has been incredibly reliable. They have won five of their previous six home matches, scoring 13 goals and conceding only three. Moreover, they’ve won by at least a two-goal margin in their last three home games against Andorra, Wales and Serbia.
We expect this to be the case once again on Friday night. Tuchel’s decision to hand squad players an opportunity to impress should work in England's favour. There’ll be a roster of motivated players eager to catch the manager's eye.
We can currently back England to win by two or more goals at a probability of only 40%. This seems low, given that 83.33% of their last six home games have ended this way.
- England vs Uruguay Bet 1: England -1 (Handicap 3-Way) at odds of 2.25 with bet365
Three Lions to keep a clean sheet
There is a major difference between Uruguay's home and away form. They have only won one of their previous six away games, yet have won three of their last four home games.
In fact, Uruguay's form has somewhat declined since they qualified for the 2026 World Cup. They edged past the Dominican Republic and Uzbekistan with unconvincing friendly victories before suffering a heavy 5-1 loss against the USA in November.
Thomas Tuchel's men have conceded just three goals in their last six home games. With Pickford in goal and an experienced centre back pairing of Stones and Maguire expected, England's back line should remain as tight as usual. We can back a clean sheet for England at a probability of just 53.48% this week.
- England vs Uruguay Bet 2: Uruguay Under 0.5 goals at odds of 2.10 with bet365
Backing Palmer to get on the scoresheet
Cole Palmer has experienced a frustrating 2025/26 campaign so far. Although he struggled with form and fitness issues, he has still managed to score nine times across 20 Premier League appearances for Chelsea.
Palmer is likely to be asked to play as the central attacking midfielder against Uruguay, supporting Calvert-Lewin in the final third. Because Calvert-Lewin excels at playing with his back to goal, he could serve as the perfect partner to set Palmer up for some successful goal attempts.
During the current Premier League season, Palmer ranks in the 98th percentile for expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes with 0.57. He also sits in the 96th percentile for both shots on target per 90 (1.20) and total shots taken per 90 (2.84). We’re backing Palmer to score any time at a probability of only 37.04% on Friday evening.
- England vs Uruguay Bet 3: Cole Palmer Anytime goalscorer at odds of 3.25 with bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - England 2-0 Uruguay
- Goalscorers prediction - England: Palmer, Maguire - Uruguay: N/A
Thomas Tuchel does not have many matches remaining to experiment with his squad before this summer’s World Cup. Therefore, this home friendly against Uruguay is a welcome opportunity.
The Three Lions have decided to rest several regular starters, including Declan Rice, Harry Kane, and Bukayo Saka. This choice was made with the intention of offering fringe players a chance to earn their spot on the plane to America.
The starting XI against Uruguay is likely to see Dominic Calvert-Lewin lead the line in a rare appearance for England. The former Everton striker has rediscovered his Premier League form with Leeds United and has been selected ahead of Ollie Watkins for this week's fixture. Additionally, Marcus Rashford will have one last opportunity to impress on the left wing, as Anthony Gordon has not been included in the squad.
Regarding the history between these two nations, past results strongly favour Uruguay. Across their previous meetings with England, they have recorded five wins, three draws, and suffered only three defeats.
Marcelo Bielsa doesn’t appear to have too many injury issues to contend with currently. Rodrigo Bentancur is the only major absentee, with star players such as Federico Valverde and Darwin Nunez named in the squad. However, like Tuchel, he is likely to change his lineup to test out his fringe players.
Probable lineups for England vs Uruguay
England expected lineup: Pickford; Hall, Livramento, Stones, Maguire, Wharton, Mainoo, Bowen, Palmer, Rashford, Calvert-Lewin
Uruguay expected lineup: Fiermarin; Vina, Nandez, Jimenez, Araujo, Sanabria, Ugarte, Zalazar, Valverde, de Arrascaeta, Vinas