Wolfsburg have fared better away from home (1.12 PPG) than on home turf (0.59 PPG) this season, so that explains why they remain the favourites.
| German Bundesliga relegation play-off market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Both teams to score (Yes) | 1.70 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.83 |
| Wolfsburg to win | 2.00 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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Can Paderborn make history and reach the Bundesliga for a third time?
Paderborn are just 90 minutes away from a potential return to the top flight of German football. Promotion to the Bundesliga this season would result in only their third season with the country’s elite football teams in the club’s history.
During their previous spells in the Bundesliga, Paderborn were immediately relegated back to the second tier. In 2014/15, they finished 18th, and they suffered the same fate again in 2019/20.
The team needed to be rebuilt following relegation in 2020, and they’ve steadily improved in recent years. In the last four seasons, they’ve finished sixth, seventh, fourth and finally third, clinching the play-off place under the helm of Ralf Kettemann.
The question is, do they have enough to get over the finish line and relegate Wolfsburg in the second leg?
Why goals - and an away win - seem more likely in the second leg
There’s no doubt that Wolfsburg were the dominant force in the first leg at home. They amassed an xG of 1.49, with 17 shots, six of which found their target. In stark contrast, Paderborn managed an xG of only 0.10.
It was clear from the outset they were happy to sit back and play for a draw. They managed just one shot on target and even finished the game with ten men following a sending-off in second-half injury time.
Paderborn missed out on automatic promotion to the Bundesliga on goal difference. They lost form at a crucial stage of the season, allowing Elversberg to sneak into second place. The club were the third top scorers in Bundesliga 2, but conceded more than any other team in the top four.
This explains why Wolfsburg are still heavy favourites to win the second leg. Wolfsburg had the Bundesliga’s tenth-best attacking output this season, with an xG value of 48.0.
It’s clear Wolfsburg boast the firepower and creativity to outscore Kettemann’s men. Christian Eriksen’s set-piece delivery will also prove influential. Paderborn have conceded the third-most goals in 2. Bundesliga from set plays this season (18).
Even if Wolfsburg find a way to win, we do foresee goals at both ends in the second leg. This outcome happened in 14 of Paderborn’s 17 home games in the 2. Bundesliga season. Wolfsburg’s away games in this year’s Bundesliga saw an average of 3.59 goals per game, up from 3.12 in their home matches.
At home, Paderborn have averaged more than two goals per game in 2. Bundesliga. However, they’ve shipped 27 goals on home soil too, nine more than their defensive record away from the Home Deluxe Arena.
The history books certainly lean heavily towards Wolfsburg for the second leg. Only one of the last ten Bundesliga relegation play-offs has resulted in the team from 2. Bundesliga prevailing over two legs. Yet, we can back Wolfsburg to win in 90 minutes in the second leg at a probability of only 50%.