Don't worry, Arsenal - this Man City aren't cut out for their usual late-season onslaught on the title race

City's capacity to produce a run of wins in the second half of the season has been a huge factor in them claiming six of the last eight Premier League titles. Guardiola's side have amassed more points in the second half of the season in five of the last seven years, while on one of the two occasions they were not stronger in the back end, in 2022-23, they eased up after winning the title with three games to spare.

The Gunners know this all too well, as City overhauled them in that 2022-23 campaign thanks to Guardiola's side winning 12 matches in a row, eating all the way into an eight-point deficit. In the 2023-24 campaign, meanwhile, City reeled Arsenal back with a similarly ruthless run, winning 16 out of 19 games while remaining unbeaten to accrue 51 points.

Liverpool also know all about City's legendary resurgence after the turn of the year. In 2018-19, Guardiola's side were third at the halfway stage of the season, but they went on to take an astonishing 54 points from a possible 57, pipping Jurgen Klopp's Reds to the title by a single point. 

Something similar happened in 2021-22, when City took 46 points in the second half of the season to once again finish top of the pile. In the latter half of 2020-21, the first season of that record-breaking cycle of four successive crowns, they picked up 45 points.

"It’s true that our teams have always been much better in the second part of the season than the first, and hopefully it happens again this season," said Bernardo Silva in December. But this current crop of players are not following in the footsteps of their predecessors.

In 2026, City have taken just seven points out of a possible total of 18. They have only managed to win one of those games, and that was against Wolves, one of the weakest teams in the league's history.

Of particular concern have been City's poor second-half performances. Sunday's capitulation at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, where City have repeatedly struggled, was no exception. They have surrendered nine points in the second half of their six league matches in 2026, scoring zero goals while conceding six times.

What must be infuriating to Guardiola is that his side have produced some fine first-half displays. They were utterly dominant against Chelsea but took their foot off the pedal after the break, and Enzo Fernandez's last-gasp equaliser came after waves of Chelsea pressure. 

They were then in cruise control against Tottenham to the point that Gary Neville compared the game to Soccer Aid and said the atmosphere was "as flat as a pancake" during his commentary for Sky Sports.

But once Tottenham came out stronger in the second half, helped by the introduction of Pape Matar Sarr beefing up their midfield, City could not cope. Guardiola did not react either, and instead waited until the 69th minute to make his first change, and that was only because Rayan Cherki had picked up a knock rather than for tactical reasons. 

Guardiola did introduce Nico Gonzalez to try and add more power to the midfield, but it was Spurs who finished stronger and could have won the game had it not been for two fine saves from Gianluigi Donnarumma to deny Wilson Odobert and Xavi Simons.

"They don't have that killer instinct," said Neville. "They struggle when teams put them under pressure, with high pressing, on the ball and with balls into the box. They don't stand up to it and don't withstand that pressure. They haven't got the centre-backs who are dominant. They are second-best and allow teams to reemerge in games, it will cause a massive problem."

"City lost all momentum and control," said former Tottenham midfielder Danny Murphy on the BBC. "I do not think City lost their way because Spurs suddenly had more quality than them - it was more that Tottenham just wanted it more in the second half. That is a concern for Pep Guardiola, especially because his team are trying to put pressure on leaders Arsenal.

"In the first half I saw City play like a team trying to catch Arsenal - a team on a mission saying, 'we're coming after you'. Part of the fall off from them in the second half was self-inflicted - giving the ball away, not winning challenges or second balls. It was very unlike them, because we are used to seeing them manage games so well."

Guardiola was bullish after the game and dismissed the suggestion that his side are bowing out of the title race: "So you're saying to me that we stop in the Premier League? We're 14 games away. As long as the chance is there, the hope is always going to be there."

Both City and Arsenal have a place in the final of the Carabao Cup to fight for before another massive weekend in the title race. On Saturday, Arsenal host a Sunderland side who are winless in their last seven away games, meaning City could be nine points off the pace by the time they kick off at Liverpool on Sunday. Guardiola's side have an even worse record at Anfield than they do at Tottenham, having won just once in their last 10 visits, with that solitary victory coming when the stadium was empty during the Covid-19-affected 2020-21 season.

Despite City strengthening by signing Guehi and Antoine Semenyo in January, Arsenal appear to have the stronger squad for the run-in. They may have lost Mikel Merino for the foreseeable future and there is fresh concern surrounding Bukayo Saka after he picked up an injury in the warm-up at Leeds, but they currently have three players out injured compared to City's six, which includes their three first-choice centre-backs, Ruben Dias, John Stones and Josko Gvardiol.

"Arsenal can withstand pressure," added Neville. "This City team right now, in midfield and defence, they haven't got the rock solid spine that can go and win a title. They are letting you down, time and time after again. There is a lot of soul searching for City and Pep Guardiola. They look well short."

There is still a long way to go, but this stage of the season is when you expect City to have clicked into gear and on one of their famous runs. Instead, the opposite is happening. While history has a heavy weight in title races, Arsenal have the upper hand on current evidence.