Raffaele Palladino’s Bologna appointment creates new betting angles

You have to go back to the 2011/12 Serie A season to find a Bologna side that made a worse start than this year’s winless team. 

All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.

Palladino has been tasked with a difficult rebuild at I Rossoblu

Few could have anticipated how quickly things would turn sour for Bologna boss Domenico Tedesco. They suffered 1-0 defeats to Atalanta, Napoli and Lazio before mustering only a point from their clash with Sassuolo, which eventually proved Tedesco’s undoing.

The Bologna hierarchy saw enough to dispense with Tedesco’s services after just four games in charge. Raffaele Palladino was swiftly appointed as his replacement, taking charge of his first game against Torino.

Palladino began his Bologna tenure with a draw against Torino. The performance offered some early insight into his tactical approach rather than an immediate solution. 

Bologna lined up in a 3-4-3 shape that fits Palladino’s preferred formation and approach. On the downside, the performance was still largely flat. They racked up just 0.92 xG in the game, managing just 1 shot on target throughout. Torino had almost double (26) the number of touches in the opposing penalty area than Bologna (15).

This suggests Palladino was never going to provide an instant fix. In addition, a home draw with Torino is no proof of a new manager bounce either.

The three-week international break could turn out to be transformational for Palladino. He can get plenty of work into his players on the training ground. His first sessions were described as being built around speed and quality in possession.

Palladino favours snappy, two-touch football, simpler attacking patterns and a more aggressive approach to pressing opponents deep in their own half.

His style rubbed off well during his time with Atalanta. He racked up 46 Serie A points from 27 games, guiding La Dea to 7th place and Conference League qualification.

He also led Fiorentina to 6th place and the last four of the Conference League. Palladino’s experience doesn’t guarantee an immediate recovery for Bologna, but it suggests he knows what it takes to get domestic and continental results.

The underlying data suggests there’s still hope 

With Bologna sitting in the 3rd and final relegation place in Serie A after 5 games, things do look concerning. Yet, there’s enough in their data to find reasons to be more positive about a potential resurgence under Palladino.

The case for the defence: As it stands, Bologna have the seventh-best defensive record in Serie A, averaging just 1.2 goals conceded per 90. That doesn’t align with a team marooned in 18th place without a win in their first 5 games. Their xGA is the second best in Serie A too, standing at a meagre 4.7 from 5 matches.

Bologna are by no means being outplayed in possession either. They currently average 52.3% possession, which is the 8th highest in the 2026/27 Serie A. 

The root cause of their recent issues seems to be in the final third.

Opposition keepers are having quiet afternoons: One of the main reasons why Bologna have managed just 3 goals in 5 games is their poor attacking output. They sit 17th in the league for shots on target per 90 (3.2), with only Torino, Genoa and Parma averaging fewer. Their shot conversion rate is just 4.5% too - the lowest in Serie A by a distance.

A glance at Bologna’s trio of league defeats is also cause for positivity. They racked up 1.78 xG to Lazio’s 0.63 in their 1-0 home defeat to Lazio.

In their following 1-0 loss at Atalanta, they generated 1.05 xG to Atalanta’s meagre 0.15. They were beaten 1.19 xG to 0.29 xG in their 1-0 defeat at Napoli. However, they narrowly won the xG battle 1.88 to 1.62 in their 2-2 draw with Sassuolo.

Taken together, the numbers suggest Tedesco’s approach may have delivered better results with more time, but Bologna’s hierarchy ultimately chose not to continue with the project. 

Lecce make for the ideal testing ground of Palladino’s system

Bologna’s trip to Lecce on 11 October could provide an early indication of how well Palladino’s style can work. Lecce have averaged 2 goals conceded per game and scored at a rate of just 1 goal per game. Their -5 goal difference is worse than Bologna’s (-3), despite Lecce being 4 points better off.

Why Lecce are a good match-up for I Rossoblu: Lecce have shown little interest in dominating possession this season. They have averaged just 38.6% possession so far this season - the lowest in Serie A by more than 2%. This could make Lecce a useful opponent for Palladino’s aggressive, high-intensity approach, which focuses on making possession count.

The signs are positive: Palladino has managed teams against Lecce on 6 occasions in Serie A, losing only 1 of them. He has a 50% win rate. His points-per-game ratio (1.83) is only bettered against Genoa (2.71), Cagliari (2.17) and Sassuolo (2.00) over the same sample size.

The recent head-to-head record between the two clubs is mildly encouraging too. Bologna defeated Lecce 2-0 back in April.

Although Palladino’s appointment may have created some short-term value on I Rossoblu against Lecce, the long-term picture remains uncertain. It’s best to let Palladino’s early reign play out to determine if there’s value in Bologna recovering to a top 4 or top 6 finish.