Following a 2-1 win over Mallorca last weekend, Alaves have escaped from the relegation zone, but it’s closely contested at the bottom end of the table.
| Alaves Markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Alaves vs Athletic Club - Over 2.5 goals | +101 |
| Elche vs Alaves - Over 3.5 goals | +220 |
| Elche vs Alaves - Both teams to score in the second half | +225 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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Goals following expressive Alaves as they battle for safety
Earlier in the season, Alaves were not exactly the most entertaining team in Spain. Chacho Coudet had instilled a disciplined approach. Only five of their opening 15 league fixtures produced more than two goals.
However, they have become more expansive as the season has progressed. That trend has been most noticeable since Coudet left to take charge of River Plate in March. His replacement, Quique Sanchez Flores, immediately looked to take more risks with an attacking approach.
Los Babazorros have played seven games so far under the experienced Spaniard. Those matches averaged 4.29 goals in total. Every one of those fixtures saw both teams score, while six served up at least three goals.
When he accepted the job, Sanchez Flores would have quickly realised that draws were not going to suffice. There are 19 teams currently averaging at least a point per game. That suggests it may take more than 40 points for survival in La Liga this term.
16th-placed Alaves are still four shy of that mark, with five games to play. They’ve been chasing victories, and that trend should continue, with two more wins likely to be enough. Anything less would leave them vulnerable, given their current advantage over Levante in 19th place is just three points.
The good news for the Basque club is that they have a favourable run-in. Three of their final five games are at home, while they play away to fellow strugglers Real Oviedo and Elche.
Will the high-scoring trend continue under Sanchez Flores?
Next up, there’s a local derby against Athletic Club at Mendizorrotza. Despite being able to field the talented Nico Williams, Los Leones are having a poor season in terms of scoring.
However, Ernesto Valverde’s team also need to start chasing victories if they’re to stand any chance of European qualification. That could lead to an open game, as seasonal trends start to shift in the final weeks.
With an implied probability of 50%, backing over 2.5 goals could be the smart approach. That bet has landed in each of the previous five Alaves matches. There have been at least two goals in all of their last 13 encounters.
Following that, it’s a crucial relegation six-pointer against Elche. Such fixtures are often tightly contested and tense, but this one may be very different.
Elche have been trying to pass the ball and play positively all season. They’re averaging a 58% share of possession, which is the third-highest figure in La Liga.
Since January, 76% of their matches in all competitions have produced at least three goals. 47% of their outings in 2026 have finished with four or more strikes. Therefore, backing over 3.5 goals when they welcome Alaves to the Manuel Martinez Valero is at value.
There has also been a clear trend of late goals in games involving the Basque outfit since Sanchez Flores took charge. His seven matches have produced five goals in the 90th minute or later.
Four of those games also saw both teams score in the second half. Backing that to be the case again when they travel to Elche could be worth considering.