Roma won on Monday night after back-to-back losses. Another win over Juve could see them close the three-point gap between themselves and leaders Inter.
Best Predictions for Juventus vs Roma
- Roma +1 (Handicap 3-Way) @ -130 with bet365
- Roma (1st goal) @ +160 with bet365
- Kenan Yildiz to Score or Assist @ +150 with bet365
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Covering the draw and an away victory
It’s worth backing Roma at +1 on the 3-Way Handicap at a probability of 56.50%, as I Giallorossi don’t even need to win the game for this bet to win.
A draw would be good enough, and that’s highly likely since they’ve drawn four of their last six meetings in Serie A. The defensive, low-scoring style of both sides this season indicates that a draw is even more likely, as both teams are unlikely to score more than once this weekend.
Nevertheless, Roma have won three more games than Juve this season and could move into second place if results go in their favour this weekend. Also, it’s worth noting that the Roma +1 handicap means that this bet will be successful even if Gasperini’s men manage a decisive victory in Turin.
- Juventus vs Roma Prediction 1: Roma +1 (Handicap 3-Way) @ -130 with bet365
Roma to start strongly
Five of the goals Roma has scored away from home have come in the first half of matches. Additionally, four of the six home goals conceded by Juventus this season have also happened in the first 45 minutes of games.
It’s also worth noting that Juve’s percentage of scoring first in home games (43%) is below the Serie A average (47%). Moreover, more than a third (38%) of Roma’s away goals conceded have occurred in the 75-90 minute window.
Considering these facts, there is value in backing the visitors to score first in this fixture. The betting markets suggest there’s only a 38.17% chance of Roma scoring first, compared with 58.82% for the home side.
This 20%+ swing seems too great considering the data and Roma’s strong start to the season.
- Juventus vs Roma Prediction 2: Roma (1st goal) @ +160 with bet365
Backing Yildiz to spark Juve into life
Juventus’ Turkish talent, Kenan Yildiz, has been their main creative player so far this season. With nine goal contributions in 14 Serie A appearances, Spalletti’s side have become increasingly reliant on him.
He is just two goal contributions away from beating his return from 35 games last season. Therefore, the 20-year-old is constantly developing and improving.
Yildiz currently has a success rate of 64.29% for goal contributions in the league this season. Surprisingly, the betting markets suggest that he has only a 40% chance of scoring or assisting against Roma. Therefore, this is the best value bet from our trio of Juventus vs Roma predictions.
- Juventus vs Roma Prediction 3: Kenan Yildiz to Score or Assist @ +150 with bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction – Juventus 1-1 Roma
- Goalscorers prediction – Juventus: Yildiz – Roma: Soulé
Juventus have won only two of their last five games, which has caused them to fall behind the leading teams in Serie A this season. They secured a crucial win against a ten-man Bologna last weekend to bounce back from their frustrating 2-1 loss at Napoli.
Scoring goals has been the biggest problem for Luciano Spalletti’s side so far this season. Juve average just 1.27 goals scored per game. Additionally, they are conceding 0.93 goals per game. This explains why they sometimes lose tight games where the fine margins don’t go their way.
Their main goal threat this season has been Kenan Yildiz, who is surprisingly the club’s leading scorer. Spalletti could enter this match without Dusan Vlahovic, as the striker will be assessed for injury. Meanwhile, Teun Koopmeiners is serving a suspension, so he will miss Saturday evening’s game.
Gian Piero Gasperini has been successful in turning Roma into a genuine top-four team in Serie A. After a hugely successful spell with Atalanta, Gasperini has developed a solid defence in Roma. They’ve conceded only eight goals in 15 matches so far this season.
Their strong defence has proven crucial, as they are still trying to find the best solution in the final third. Loan signing Evan Ferguson has struggled to secure a place in the team, having scored just one goal. Argentine player Matias Soule is currently the club’s top scorer this season with just four goals scored.
Probable lineups for Juventus vs Roma
Juventus expected lineup: Di Gregorio, Kelly, Kalulu, Bremer, McKennie, Locatelli, Thuram, Conceicao, Cambiaso, Yildiz, David
AS Roma expected lineup: Svilar, Wesley, Celik, Mancini, Hermoso, Cristante, Kone, Rensch, Soule, Pellegrini, Ferguson