Both sides are in excellent form. Como have an average of 2.11 points per home game, a statistic matched by AC Milan in their away games.
Best Predictions for Como vs AC Milan
- Como (Tie No Bet) @ -200
- Under 2.5 Goals @ -140
- Both Teams to Score (No) @ -110
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Backing I Biancoblu to win with a refund on the draw
There is value backing Como to win in the Draw No Bet market this week. AC Milan’s expected goals against (xGA) column is one of the main reasons why they may be vulnerable on Thursday night.
Allegri’s men have averaged 1.41 xGA in their away matches so far in 2025/26. Yet they’ve only averaged 0.67 goals conceded per away game. A regression to the mean suggests they may begin conceding closer to two goals per away fixture.
Como are also narrowly underperforming their xG at home. They’ve averaged 1.62 xG in front of their own fans this season, but have scored 1.44 goals per home game. Even marginal improvements in finishing from Como, combined with defensive regression for Milan, could result in a difficult night for the visitors. Using the Draw No Bet market means a refund is ensured if the game ends in a competitive draw.
- Como vs AC Milan Prediction 1: Como (Tie No Bet) @ -200
Anticipating a low-scoring encounter
Defensive discipline has been a hallmark for both sides, with Como conceding an average of only 0.44 goals per home game and AC Milan conceding just 0.67 goals per away game. When two miserly defences come head-to-head, backing Under 2.5 goals feels like the sensible option.
In fact, we can back two or fewer goals being scored in this game at a probability of just 56.50%. Under 2.5 goals bets have won in 89% of Como’s home games so far this season. Moreover, they’ve won in 50% of AC Milan’s away games so far this season.
Based on these stats and the exceptional form of both teams, who will be eager to extend their unbeaten runs, a low-scoring contest seems likely.
- Como vs AC Milan Prediciton 2: Under 2.5 Goals @ -140
Tipping either side to register a clean sheet
Both teams have scored in only 44% of Como’s home games and the same amount of AC Milan’s away games. Yet the betting markets indicate there is only a 50% chance that both teams will fail to score in this match.
This indicates around 5%-6% of value, making it the best value bet from our trio of Como vs AC Milan predictions.
Como have conceded just four Serie A goals at home this season. AC Milan have only let in nine goals away from the San Siro. Despite sitting in second place, the Rossoneri have failed to score in half of their away games.
- Como vs AC Milan Prediction 3: Both Teams to Score (No) @ -110
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Como 1-0 AC Milan
- Goalscorers prediction - Como: Paz - AC Milan: N/A
Como host Massimiliano Allegri’s AC Milan on Thursday evening, aiming for a home win to move within three points of the Rossoneri.
It has been a very encouraging start to the 2025/2026 Serie A season for Cesc Fabregas and his Como side. They currently sit in sixth place, just six points behind Thursday’s opponents, AC Milan.
Como are currently on a nine-game unbeaten run at home. In fact, Fabregas’ side have only failed to score in one of their home fixtures in 2025/2026. They’ve also kept three clean sheets across their last five Serie A matches.
AC Milan are just three points behind Serie A leaders and city rivals, Inter, in the race for this season’s Scudetto. Allegri has made the Rossoneri very difficult to defeat, as they’ve lost just one of their opening 19 league games.
The visitors are unbeaten in their last nine away fixtures, so this really is a clash between two sides performing at the peak of their powers. AC Milan will still be without Santiago Gimenez due to injury. Meanwhile, Alvaro Morata is a major fitness doubt for Como, along with Edoardo Goldaniga.
Probable lineups for Como vs AC Milan
Como expected lineup: Butez, Moreno, Smolcic, Carlos, Kempf, Perrone, Da Cunha, Rodriguez, Kuhn, Paz, Douvikas
AC Milan expected lineup: Maignan, De Winter, Tomori, Gabbia, Saelemaekers, Bartesaghi, Rabiot, Fofana, Modric, Pulisic, Leao