NFL 2024 NFC South Analysis, Preview & Predictions: Can new-look Falcons topple Buccaneers or will either Saints or Panthers pull off an upset?

The Carolina Panthers will be heading into the 2024 season with their third full-time head coach in as many years. New head coach Dave Canales, who played a pivotal role in helping quarterback Baker Mayfield secure his first Pro Bowl selection in 2023, brings optimism for second-year quarterback Bryce Young. The 2023 No. 1 overall pick has reason to be excited, especially with the addition of wide receivers Diontae Johnson and first-round rookie Xavier Legette.

Canales aims to establish a balanced offense, leaning heavily on the run game. The Panthers are well-equipped to execute this strategy, thanks to the signing of guard Robert Hunt and the arrival of rookie second-round running back Jonathon Brooks, who is making a return from an ACL injury.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Panthers face significant uncertainties in their secondary. New potential starters at cornerback, Dane Jackson, and safety, Jordan Fuller, bring fresh faces to the lineup, while injury-prone cornerback Jaycee Horn will be vying for a crucial role.

Can Young bounce back from a tumultuous rookie season? His first year, following his selection as the top pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, was a worst-case scenario for the young quarterback.

The outlook for the Panthers this season isn't bright, and they are projected to finish at the bottom of the standings. However, there's a silver lining—they hold a first-round pick in the 2025 draft.

The Saints find themselves in the worst cap situation in the NFL, and they desperately need to reign in their spending instead of signing pricey players and pretending they're legitimate contenders.

The New Orleans Saints' acquisition of quarterback Derek Carr didn't yield immediate results, but Carr did catch fire towards the end of the season, providing hope that he can stabilize their offense in 2024. The Saints' roster boasts talent on offense, with wide receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed forming a solid, albeit unspectacular, duo.

Defensively, the Saints are decent, especially in the secondary, where they will lean heavily on 2024 second-round pick Kool-Aid McKinstry, an All-American from Alabama. However, New Orleans’ defensive line needs significant improvement.

The additions of Chase Young, the second overall pick of the 2020 NFL Draft, on a one-year, $13 million contract, Northern Iowa defensive tackle Khristian Boyd via the draft (sixth round, 199th overall), and inside linebacker Willie Gay Jr. on a one-year, $3 million deal, are not enough to move the needle.

Moreover, they didn't re-sign Andrus Peat, who posted most of his snaps at left tackle last season, while right tackle Ryan Ramczyk is on the mend. This could be the mediocre season before they finally give up and work on their cap situation.

Tampa Bay was a huge surprise last year and won a playoff game against Philadelphia, but the regression is coming in 2024. They signed quarterback Baker Mayfield and wide receiver Mike Evans to extensions this offseason, which will help their offensive consistency. However, they lost offensive coordinator Dave Canales, who went on to become the new head coach of division rivals the Carolina Panthers.

Mayfield had a fantastic season, but can he repeat, if not, better that? If not, what's the point in giving him a huge pay day and a $33 million in cap space that could have been better utilized elsewhere to build a contender?

With an offensive imbalance, an obvious issue in pass coverage, and a subpar secondary, the Bucs have too many glaring holes at key spots. They also have a brutal stretch of games from Weeks 5 to 10 before their bye. They face at Atlanta, at New Orleans, home to Baltimore, Atlanta again, before travelling to face Kansas City and hosting San Francisco.

The headline-grabber out of the NFC South this offseason is the Atlanta Falcons going all-in to sign Kirk Cousins and drafting Michael Penix Jr. with the 8th overall pick. Despite not using that pick to bolster the defense, Atlanta remains a strong favorite to clinch the division. Cousins, who was performing as a top-5 quarterback in terms of EPA per play before his Achilles injury, is a significant upgrade over Desmond Ridder.

The Falcons also have a new head coach in Raheem Morris, following Arthur Smith's unsuccessful tenure. Morris and new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson (formerly with the LA Rams) have a wealth of talent at their disposal, including elite running backs Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson.

The Falcons' offensive line, anchored by three former first-round picks—left tackle Jake Matthews, right tackle Kaleb McGary, and two-time Pro Bowler Chris Lindstrom at right guard—ranked as the NFL's third-best pass-blocking unit last season. If Cousins can stay healthy, allowing 2024 eighth overall pick Michael Penix Jr. to develop from the bench, the Falcons could certainly contend for the NFC South title in the upcoming season.