The Huskies sprang one of the biggest upsets in recent March Madness memory last weekend when they bounced favorite Duke out of the tournament. UConn fought back from a 15-point deficit at the half to beat the Blue Devils, securing victory with a late three-pointer from Braylon Mullins. The Huskies are 33-5 on the year and finished second in the Big East with a 17-3 conference record.
Facing UConn is the Big Ten’s Illinois. The Fighting Illini got a No. 3 seed in the South Region of the NCAA Tournament and advanced to the Final Four with wins over Penn, VCU, Houston and Iowa. This is Illinois’ first trip to the Final Four since 2005, and the program has won all of its 2026 NCAA Tournament games by at least 10 points so far.
UConn vs Illinois Predictions - 6:09pm EST - 4/4
- Tarris Redd 10+ rebounds (-152)
- UConn Under 139.5 (-110)
- UConn +2 (-110)
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing, and subject to change.
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UConn vs Illinois Odds
- Spread: Illinois -2 (-110)
- Moneyline: UConn (+115), Illinois (-135)
- Total: U/O 139.5 points (-110)
UConn vs Illinois Picks
Reed to dominate at the rim glass - Reed Jr 10+ Total Rebounds (-152)
It is no exaggeration to state that without Tarris Reed Jr. stepping up this thrilling UConn run to the Final Four could not have happened. The senior center opened the NCAA Tournament with a 31-point, 27-rebound game against Furman and he had another huge game to take down Duke, putting up 26 points and nine boards.
At 6-foot-11 and 265 pounds Reed’s physicality is what first stands out, and he has been a formidable presence around the glass at both ends of the court in his senior year. Reed averages 8.8 rebounds per game in 2025-26 on 26.9 minutes per game, and with the stakes higher than ever for Saturday he will likely spend much more time on the court in Indianapolis.
Reed will have to be at his best against an elite rebounding unit like Illinois, but he should get plenty of opportunities to rack up the numbers given the Fighting Illini’s high shot volume and mediocre accuracy. Get on the big to pull down 10 boards or more.
- UConn vs Illinois Prediction 1: Tarris Reed Jr 10+ total rebounds (-152)
Tight game in Indianapolis - Under 139 (-110)
With so much on the line this should be a tight game, especially considering that UConn and Illinois are two accomplished defensive units that do a great job at shutting other teams down.
UConn closes down opposing better than almost anyone else in college basketball. Rival teams average just 21.8 field goals made against the Huskies, a mark that ranks fourth in Division I. Overall UConn allows a miserly 65.2 ppg and holds opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 46% (9th in D-I).
Illinois is not quite as dominant without the ball but does do a great job at keeping teams away from the line. Its mark of 12.3 free throw attempts against per game is the best in college basketball. Its offense is deliberate, wearing down the shot clock: the Fighting Illini average 68 possessions per game, ranking 300th in D-I, and that number has plummeted to 62.6 in the last three games of this NCAA Tournament run. Points will be at a premium on Saturday and the under looks like the smart choice.
- UConn vs Illinois Prediction 2: Under 139 points (-110)
Huskies look good for another upset - UConn +2 (-110)
Granted, beating Illinois on Saturday would be far less of an upset than last week’s shock against Duke. But UConn has proven it can come through in the clutch and I am backing the Huskies to cover as a narrow underdog in the Final Four.
UConn played as underdog for the first time in the Elite Eight and covered with that unforgettable win. On the season it is 6-5 ATS against ranked opposition and an impressive 7-2 when playing on neutral ground. The Huskies will look to control possessions against an Illinois team that struggles to take the ball away, averaging just 7.8 opposition turnovers per game (365th in D-I). UConn shoots well and picks up plenty of boards on offense, and those two areas could prove key as it looks to return to the championship game once more.
- UConn vs Illinois Prediction 3: Huskies +2 (-110)
UConn vs Illinois Start Time
- Start Time: 6:09pm EST
- Location: Lucas Oil Stadium
- Address: Indianapolis, IN
- TV & Streaming: Paramount+, HBO Max, March Madness Live app
UConn and Illinois get the Final Four underway in Indianapolis on Saturday in what should be a thrilling game. UConn upset the odds and Duke last time out and is two wins away from its fourth NCAA Championship under legendary coach Dan Hurley, who went back to back in the Tournament in 2023 and 2024. But the Huskies face another tough challenge in the shape of Illinois, which sprang a surprise of its own in the Sweet Sixteen in bouncing Houston from the competition. The winner will go on to face Arizona or Michigan in the championship game.