Dortmund have led at half-time in seven of their last eight meetings with Hoffenheim. Can BVB hit the front early this weekend?
Best bets for Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund
- Borussia Dortmund - Borussia Dortmund (half-time - full-time) at odds of 4.00 with bet365
- Borussia Dortmund (1st goal) at odds of 1.90 with bet365
- Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.20 with bet365
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Backing the visitors to lead early on
Dortmund haven’t tasted defeat away from home since mid-October, losing 2-1 at leaders Bayern Munich. They’ve won four of their last five away matches. Meanwhile, Hoffenheim have won only one of their last four home games and are tiring as the season reaches its climax.
The head-to-head records also favour Dortmund, who have led at half-time in seven of their last eight meetings. That’s why there’s huge value in backing Kovac’s men to hit the front in the opening 45 and maintain their advantage.
The betting markets price BVB at just a 27.78% chance of leading at the break and going on to win. Given the historical data and Hoffenheim’s late-season dip in home form, this seems like a smart play.
- Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund Bet 1: Borussia Dortmund - Borussia Dortmund (half-time - full-time) at odds of 4.00 with bet365
Huge value on BVB to open the scoring
Dortmund have a 90% strike rate of scoring first in their last ten match-ups with Hoffenheim. Yet, the betting markets believe BVB have only a 53.48% chance of scoring first on Saturday. This seems like the best value bet from our trio of Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund predictions.
Hoffenheim have recently lost at home to sides much lower than Dortmund in the Bundesliga table. Defeats to St. Pauli and Mainz, along with a frustrating 1-1 draw with Wolfsburg, have left Hoffenheim outside the Europa League qualification spot.
They sit nine points behind seventh-placed Frankfurt, so it’s easy to see why Hoffenheim have lacked motivation of late. They are almost guaranteed European football next season, with Conference League qualification at a bare minimum.
- Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund Bet 2: Borussia Dortmund (1st goal) at odds of 1.90 with bet365
Backing four or more goals at PreZero Arena
Hoffenheim’s last seven Bundesliga matches have produced 25 goals in total, averaging 3.57 per game. Dortmund average virtually two goals scored per away game (27 in 14 matches), so we anticipate a free-scoring encounter this weekend.
Exactly half of Hoffenheim’s home games have featured four or more goals. Although only 21% of Dortmund’s away games have gone over 3.5 goals, the metrics still point towards more goals this weekend.
We can back four or more goals at a probability of 44.44%. Both sides are relatively injury-free, with first-choice attackers expected to feature for each team.
- Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund Bet 3: Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.20 with bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Hoffenheim 1-3 Borussia Dortmund
- Goalscorers prediction - Hoffenheim: Asllani - Borussia Dortmund: Guirassy x2, Brandt
Hoffenheim have won only two of their last nine Bundesliga games and host second-placed Borussia Dortmund this weekend.
Hoffenheim’s home form has been the bedrock of their impressive 2025/26 Bundesliga campaign. They’ve averaged 1.79 points per home game, winning eight of their 14 matches in front of their own supporters.
The hosts are currently 21 points better off than they were at this stage last season. Their goal output has been a big reason behind their year-on-year improvement. Last term, they averaged 1.35 goals scored per game and 2.00 goals conceded per game. It’s 1.97 goals scored per game and 1.48 goals conceded per game this season.
Borussia Dortmund have also made significant progress to last season, collecting 22 more points at this stage than in 2024/25. BVB had been on a four-game winning run prior to their home game with Bayer Leverkusen, which they narrowly lost 1-0 at Signal Iduna Park.
Niko Kovac’s men average more than two points (2.07) per away game this season. They’ve only lost one Bundesliga game on the road. Dortmund have opened the scoring in nine of their last ten meetings with Hoffenheim. BVB have also found the net in their last 12 match-ups with Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga.
Probable lineups for Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund
Hoffenheim expected lineup: Baumann, Hajdari, Hranac, Kabak, Toure, Coufal, Avdullahu, Burger, Kramaric, Asllani, Lemperle
Borussia Dortmund expected lineup: Kobel, Anton, Schlotterbeck, Bensebaini, Svensson, Ryerson, Sabitzer, Bellingham, Brandt, Adeyemi, Guirassy