The head-to-head record suggests goals are highly likely, with three or more goals featuring in eight of their last ten meetings.
Best bets for Borussia Dortmund vs Freiburg
- Borussia Dortmund -1 (Handicap 3-way) at odds of 2.00 with bet365
- Both teams to score (Yes) at odds of 1.80 with bet365
- 2nd Half (Half with most goals) at odds of 2.05 with bet365
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
- Score sports bonuses at sign up with the bet365 bonus code
- Cover your first bet with a First Bet Shield from BetVictor
- Play with the best sports betting sites in Canada when betting on sports online
Backing BVB to win with at least a two-goal margin
With Freiburg likely to be fatigued after 120 minutes in the DFB-Pokal and a Europa League semi approaching, a home win is likely. Dortmund need another home win here to maintain their distance from RB Leipzig in second place.
Although Dortmund could be without star striker, Guirassy, we expect them to maintain their strong home record against Freiburg. They’ve won by four-goal margins in three of the last four fixtures between the two sides at Signal Iduna Park.
Yet we can back BVB to win by only a two-goal margin at a probability of just 51.28%. Therefore, this is the top value bet from our trio of Borussia Dortmund vs Freiburg predictions this weekend.
- Borussia Dortmund vs Freiburg Bet 1: Borussia Dortmund -1 (Handicap 3-Way) at odds of 2.00 with bet365
Head-to-head data leans towards both sides scoring
Both teams have found the net in eight of the last ten match-ups between BVB and Freiburg. Freiburg haven’t kept a clean sheet against Dortmund in 16 matches. The main question is whether Freiburg can score at Signal Iduna Park.
Although Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in more than half of their home games, they’ve appeared more vulnerable recently. They have conceded eight goals in their last six home matches.
Freiburg have also scored in their last two away games. Both teams found the net in the return fixture in December, when BVB were held to a 1-1 draw.
- Borussia Dortmund vs Freiburg Bet 2: Both Teams to Score (Yes) at odds of 1.80 with bet365
Value on second half goalfest
We can predict the second half to feature more goals than the first, with an implied probability of 50%. However, we expect this is much more likely to happen than not. Freiburg have conceded 22 of their 28 goals away from home in the second half of matches.
Similarly, Dortmund have scored 18 of their 33 home goals after half time. Dortmund have also conceded nine of their 14 goals at home in the second 45 of games.
Although Dortmund have scored in the first half of four of their last five meetings with Freiburg, two or more goals in the second half are likely here.
- Borussia Dortmund vs Freiburg Bet 3: 2nd Half (Half With Most Goals) at odds of 2.05 with bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Borussia Dortmund 3-1 Freiburg
- Goalscorers prediction - Borussia Dortmund: Silva, Brandt, Schlotterbeck - Freiburg: Holer
Borussia Dortmund are back at Signal Iduna Park this weekend to host a Freiburg side that have won three of their last four Bundesliga games.
By contrast, BVB have lost back-to-back league matches for the first time this season. Niko Kovac’s men secured second place previously in the Bundesliga, but recent defeats have seen RB Leipzig reduce the gap to five points. They’ve averaged 2.33 points per home game this season, so Kovac will expect his side to get back to winning ways.
They may have to do so without the availability of Serhou Guirassy, who is a major doubt for the weekend after sustaining a concussion. Despite some disappointing defeats in recent home games, Dortmund have still scored 11 goals in their last five home games.
Freiburg are experiencing a strong period in the Bundesliga. They followed two rare away wins at St. Pauli and Mainz with a home win over bottom club Heidenheim last weekend.
Freiburg lost their DFB-Pokal semi-final to Stuttgart on Thursday, with the tie going into extra time. This could result in fatigued players travelling to Dortmund this weekend. Freiburg also have a Europa League semi-final approaching, and their first leg is scheduled four days after the trip to Dortmund.
Probable lineups for Borussia Dortmund vs Freiburg
Borussia Dortmund expected lineup: Kobel, Bensebaini, Anton, Schlotterbeck, Svensson, Bellingham, Sabitzer, Ryerson, Brandt, Beier, Silva
Freiburg expected lineup: Atubolu, Kubler, Gunter, Ogbus, Ginter, Eggestein, Manzambi, Beste, Suzuki, Scherhant, Holer