If the two sides finish the season level on points, a play-off match will be scheduled to determine who will fall into Serie B next season.
| Serie A Relegation Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Cremonese | 1.36 |
| Lecce | 3.00 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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What the underlying data says about Lecce
On paper, Lecce seem to be in the driving seat to stay in Serie A. They are one point above Cremonese with two matches left to play. However, a closer look at the underlying numbers tells a different story about Lecce’s season.
Opta’s expected points (xPTS) model suggests Lecce shouldn’t just be below Cremonese in the table but rooted at the foot of it. The Giallorossi have hugely overperformed their xPTS by considerably more than Cremonese.
Lecce’s expected goal difference (-26.1) is also the worst in Serie A. This is largely due to their ineffective attack. They’ve scored just 24 goals and averaged a non-penalty xG of just 0.76 per game - another league low.
Lecce’s top scorer, Lameck Banda, currently tops the charts with a lowly four league goals to his name. That’s closely followed by Nikola Stulic and Lassana Coulibaly, who have scored three goals apiece. That return is simply not enough at this level.
Lecce have scored just three times in the last six games. There’s also a concerning historical trend to consider. In 2025, Monza were relegated, scoring just 28 goals, while Lecce survived by a narrow margin with only 27. This was the division’s second-lowest return last season, but they’ve hit rock bottom with their offensive output in 2025/26.
Then there’s Lecce’s manager, Eusebio Di Francesco, who has suffered relegation on the final day of the season in the last two successive years. His first relegation occurred when in charge of Frosinone, followed by Venezia in 2024/25. It looks like history could be repeating itself, with an unwanted hat-trick of Serie A relegations on the cards.
Why there’s still hope for Cremonese
Cremonese only need a point more than Lecce to take this relegation battle to a play-off decider. As it stands, Cremonese are in the table position the underlying Opta xPTS data suggests they deserve. They rank third-bottom for xPTS this season and they definitely have more goalscorers in their ranks than at Lecce.
Cremonese’s top scorer is Bonazzoli with nine goals, followed closely by Jamie Vardy (6) and Thorsby (3). Since Cremonese’s new boss Marco Giampaolo took charge, the team have averaged 1 point per game. That’s a sizable improvement on Lecce’s 0.71 points per game return over the same period.
Their next game is against mid-table Udinese, who have no chance at qualifying for European football next season. By contrast, Cremonese’s final day opponents, Como, could still be in contention for Champions League qualification on Matchday 38.
If Como have to settle for Europa League football after Matchday 37, this could hand a serious advantage to Cremonese. Cesc Fabregas’ side could effectively have little left to play for in this scenario, which could give Lecce a serious headache.
39-year-old Jamie Vardy will continue to spearhead Cremonese’s attack. He’s shown signs of returning to form in the run-in, with a goal and an assist in his last three appearances.
How the run-in is likely to play out
The final two matchdays will be played simultaneously, as is standard in Serie A when survival is on the line. Lecce travel to Sassuolo on Matchday 37 before hosting Genoa on the final day. Cremonese, meanwhile, face Udinese away and then Como at home.
The Como fixture is the key variable to watch. If Cesc Fàbregas’ side are still chasing Champions League qualification by 24 May, Cremonese face a much tougher test. If Como are already safe in mid-table, the task becomes significantly easier.
There's a notable symmetry in their results against their upcoming opponents. Both clubs took two points from the same set of matchdays last autumn. Lecce drew 0-0 with Sassuolo and Genoa, while Cremonese drew 1-1 with Udinese and Como.
If recent form continues and the teams finish level on points, the relegation play-off would be decided over two legs. The side with the better head-to-head record would host the second leg.
Cremonese beat Lecce in their direct meetings this season, so the decisive return tie would be at the Stadio Giovanni Zini. This is just another small but significant edge in Giampaolo's favour that could encourage you to back Cremonese for survival.