48 teams now know their fate in the first edition of the remodelled World Cup. The situation has changed, and the value lies in analysing the details.
| World Cup Markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Mexico and South Africa to draw | 4.00 |
| Spain to win the World Cup | 5.50 |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina to win Group B | 3.50 |
| Japan to win Group F | 4.00 |
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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The break that changed the odds
The March international window was always expected to be revealing. What emerged was a clearer hierarchy between national teams, alongside some genuine surprises.
France are now the world’s number one ranked team. They defeated Brazil 2-1 before comfortably defeating Colombia 3-1. Kylian Mbappe returned from injury to make an immediate impact. Their squad depth is incredibly strong across attack, midfield and defence. Didier Deschamps has a squad comparable to any in recent history.
Spain dropped to second position in the rankings after drawing 0-0 against Egypt. They had defeated Serbia 3-0 earlier during the break, but the goalless draw cost them first place. However, Luis de la Fuente’s side remain the bookmakers’ favourites to win the trophy for the second time.
England experienced a worrying international window. Two matches and zero victories have placed Thomas Tuchel under significant pressure. A 1-1 draw against Uruguay was followed by a historic 1-0 defeat against Japan at Wembley Stadium. Without Harry Kane, their attack appeared ineffective. Jude Bellingham’s absence in midfield was also noticeable. The defeat to Japan was England’s first-ever loss to a side from Asia.
The three World Cup co-hosts achieved poor results. The United States lost twice to high-profile squads, falling 5-2 to Belgium before Portugal beat them 2-0. Christian Pulisic failed to make an impact, and he has now failed to score in 14 matches for his club and country.
Mexico also played against the same two European opponents, securing draws against both. They remain undefeated across five matches, but they lack some kind of a spark. Canada competed well, also extending their unbeaten sequence to five matches with consecutive draws against Iceland and Tunisia.
However, the biggest story of the international break happened elsewhere. Italy failed to qualify for their third consecutive World Cup. Bosnia & Herzegovina eliminated the Azzurri on penalties to extend their qualification struggles.
Sweden became the first team in recent history to qualify for the World Cup despite finishing last in their qualification group. Graham Potter’s team secured their qualification through the Nations League. With Dejan Kulusevski and Viktor Gyokeres returning, their situation is improving.
Japan demonstrated their quality by narrowly defeating Scotland 1-0, before beating England by the same scoreline at Wembley. Kaoru Mitoma's 23rd-minute goal was a tactical success. This follows a 3-2 victory against Brazil during the previous international break.
The Samurai Blue are now undefeated across five consecutive matches. They might be one of the best Japanese teams ever assembled, with 24 of their 27 players playing for clubs in Europe.
Brazil beat Croatia 3-1 but needed two late goals to secure it. Carlo Ancelotti's side remain a work in progress after a difficult qualifying campaign. In contrast, Portugal appear highly organised. Cristiano Ronaldo's team possess squad depth comparable only to France and Spain. Ghana and Saudi Arabia both dismissed their managers following the international break.
The schedule is confirmed - 48 national sides begin their tournament in June. The final international break during 2025/26 has provided a clearer perspective. This presents some compelling opportunities for the betting markets.
The World Cup has become more competitive
The opening match features Mexico hosting South Africa at the Estadio Azteca. Group A is perhaps the most balanced group, with Czechia and South Korea completing the four teams. Mexico are the hosts and defending Gold Cup champions, but their recent form is unremarkable. Although they are undefeated in five matches, scoring goals remains an issue.
South Africa experienced a poor international window. They lost 2-1 against Panama, before drawing 1-1 against them four days later. Defensive mistakes and a lack of attacking effectiveness were obvious. The African team could be surprise contenders, but progressing instead of Mexico, South Korea, and Czechia appears unlikely.
Czechia qualified through the play-offs, defeating Denmark 3-1 on penalties following a 2-2 draw. They surrendered their lead twice during the match. South Korea suffered a 4-0 defeat against the Ivory Coast, before Austria defeated them 1-0.
Because all four teams in the group have flaws, the opening match between Mexico and South Africa will likely be cagey. Both teams will fear losing the game. Consequently, a draw offers genuine betting value.
Spain are the favourites for a reason. La Roja are the defending European champions and finished first in their qualification group without any difficulties. They possess a squad stacked across all positions. Lamine Yamal, Pedri, Fermin Lopez, and Dean Huijsen represent an exceptional generation of talent.
Group H is straightforward: Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, and Uruguay. Uruguay are dangerous, but Spain should finish first in the group comfortably ahead of them. Their potential route through the knockout stages is manageable, possibly leading to their second World Cup title. Luis de la Fuente's tactical intelligence is proven.
Spain’s betting odds reflect their status as the team to beat. However, considering their group draw and overall quality, the value is excellent.
This is Bosnia & Herzegovina's second-ever World Cup appearance. Their first was 12 years ago in Brazil. They return after heroically eliminating Italy on penalties. The resilience shown, coming from behind against Wales, before beating 10-man Italian team, demonstrates a squad with excellent character.
Group B consists of Canada, Switzerland, and Qatar. Canada are the lowest-ranked team from the first seeding pot. Switzerland are solid, but have their own issues. The Swiss were undefeated in 10 games until Germany beat them 4-3. Qatar are the weakest team statistically.
Bosnia's determination, combined with Canada's inexperience at this tournament level, makes topping the group a realistic ambition. Switzerland are the team they have to be aware of. Backing Bosnia to finish top is a valuable selection.
Japan are situated in a complicated group, alongside Sweden, Tunisia, and the Netherlands. However, they enter the tournament in excellent form. Back-to-back wins against Scotland and England highlight a team ready to succeed at the highest level.
This is Japan's eighth consecutive appearance at the World Cup. They have reached the Round of 16 four times but have never progressed further. From Kaoru Mitoma to Takefusa Kubo and Wataru Endo, they possess elite players.
The Netherlands are the favourites on paper, but Japan's recent victories against strong opponents suggest they can top the group. Sweden should not be underestimated either. Odds that reflect the Samurai Blue’s chances to finish first provide excellent potential returns
These four betting selections offer four different narratives. The final international break has separated the serious contenders from the weaker teams. The European champions continue to impress, while the Balkan nation defies expectations. Japan are ready to create history. Another historic World Cup is highly likely.