The betting market still prices games, by and large, on reputation rather than motivation. Here are 4 games involving teams with little to give.
| 9-10 May Matches in ‘Big 5’ Leagues | Odds |
|---|---|
| Draw/Frankfurt (Dortmund vs Frankfurt) | 2.62 |
| Mallorca to Win (Mallorca vs Villarreal) | 2.38 |
| Draw/Celta Vigo (Atletico vs Celta Vigo) | 1.77 |
| Roma -1 (Parma vs Roma) | 2.63 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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Take a Double Chance on the Eagles this weekend
Borussia Dortmund have done what they set out to do at the start of the season. BVB have secured Champions League football for next year and have pushed Bayern as hard as they can in the Bundesliga.
Second place is all but decided with a five-point lead over third-placed RB Leipzig. With two games left, there’s precious little at stake for Niko Kovac’s men beyond getting star players through the campaign in one piece.
Dortmund’s key men have likely shifted their focus on staying fit for this summer’s World Cup finals.
By contrast, Eintracht Frankfurt are still scrapping hard. They sit in eighth place, one point off seventh-placed Augsburg, who sit in the final European qualification berth.
Frankfurt’s recent form is far from ideal. They’ve won just one of their last five games, but their motivation will be far stronger than Dortmund’s this weekend. With Dortmund managing minutes and the Eagles desperate to keep their European hopes alive for next season, the Double Chance market looks tempting.
We can back a draw or a rare Frankfurt win this weekend at a probability of just 37.04%. It’s just hard to imagine Kovac’s men finding another gear if Frankfurt bring their ‘A game’ at Signal Iduna Park.
Backing Mallorca to fight for survival against the Yellow Submarine
Villarreal currently sit third in La Liga. They've already guaranteed Champions League football for a second successive season. They also sit five points ahead of fourth-placed Atletico Madrid, so there's little at stake in this weekend's trip to Mallorca.
By contrast, everything is riding on this game for Mallorca. They sit 15th in La Liga, knowing that a win would extend their two-point cushion above the relegation zone.
Mallorca are a tough team to defeat on home soil. They defeated Real Madrid 2-1 at Son Moix earlier in the campaign. They’ve averaged 1.71 points per game in front of their own fans. It's their away form (0.53 ppg) that's let them down badly this season.
To their credit, the betting markets have already clocked most of this and have made Mallorca the pre-game favourites. However, there may be value, as the probability is just 43.48%. Especially considering they're a relegation-threatened side that loves playing at home against an opponent on holiday.
Atleti look vulnerable against Celta Vigo after an emotional fortnight
If ever a team seemed destined to drop points this weekend, it's Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid. They’ve suffered in the last fortnight, losing 2-1 on aggregate to Arsenal in their Champions League semi-final.
The defeat at the Emirates puts an end to Atleti’s best chance of lifting a major European trophy in years. This, coupled with their current domestic situation in La Liga, means Celta Vigo are well worth considering this weekend.
Vigo are still in a shout of fifth place ahead of Real Betis if they can pick up all three points here and their rivals slip up. Vigo average 1.59 points per game away from home this season, so they are primed to impress at the Metropolitano.
With the Madrileños drained and deflated, Vigo are great value at 60.24% to draw or win against Atleti. You can also back them to win at a probability of just 31.25%..
The Champions League is tantalisingly close for Gasperini’s Roma
Although the other three tips focus on betting against unfocused, well-placed teams, this one is rather different. This weekend, AS Roma travel to mid-table Serie A side Parma with a genuine chance of finishing in the top four. Gian Piero Gasperini's side could secure Champions League qualification in this match.
As it stands, Milan, Juventus, Roma, and Como are separated by only five points with three matchdays to go. Roma are only one point behind Juventus in the fourth and final Champions League spot. In fact, they are only three points behind third-placed Milan and have a better goal difference than the Rossoneri.
Carlos Cuesta’s Parma have nothing to play for whatsoever. They are 20 points behind European qualification spots and 14 points above the relegation zone. If Roma score early here, Parma could crumble. They lost 2-0 to Inter last week, a result which crowned Inter as Scudetto winners.
Roma have the second-best defensive record in Serie A, while Parma have scored just 25 goals in 35 games. The visitors are likely to keep a clean sheet. They’ve also scored two or more goals in eight of their last 12 Serie A games.