The biggest fixture in La Liga on the final matchday will decide the fate of at least one club, as 18th-placed Girona and 17th-placed Elche face each other in a straight shootout for survival. Elsewhere, Osasuna (16th) must avoid defeat to avoid potential relegation.
| La Liga Markets | Odds |
| Girona vs Elche - Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 |
| Mallorca to win vs Real Oviedo | 1.44 |
| Real Betis vs Levante - BTTS & Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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Girona vs Elche
The biggest game of the evening takes place at the Estadi Montilivi, where Girona host Elche. The home team’s situation is, on one level, the simplest of the five teams in trouble. They will be relegated if they fail to secure all three points.
Consequently, Girona will attack aggressively to secure the victory. They can gain confidence from Elche's poor away record, which has seen them secure only seven points away from home this season.
Eder Sarabia’s side have conceded 2.06 goals per away game, which is the second-worst record in La Liga. Furthermore, 67% of their away fixtures have produced three or more goals. The visitors can at least take confidence from a 3-0 win in the reverse fixture back in December.
Regardless of who scores first, the other team will need to take tactical risks to equalise the score. Elche are a positive, possession-based side that won’t just drop deep, and they’ve scored in 86% of their league matches. That suggests Girona, who are the favourites, will need to score at least twice to stay up.
Given those circumstances, there is value in backing over 2.5 goals.
Mallorca vs Real Oviedo
With head-to-head records rather than goal difference acting as a tiebreaker in La Liga, there are numerous permutations at play. In the event that three or more teams finish level, a mini head-to-head table determines the final positions. Therefore, the live standings will frequently change on Saturday, and the high stakes should create betting opportunities.
A Mallorca victory against already-relegated Real Oviedo would really impact the relegation battle. That would move the Balearic Islanders onto 42 points, which is almost always enough for safety. However, the likelihood is that Martin Demichelis’ side will still go down even if they win on Saturday.
Their 2-0 defeat in a relegation six-pointer at Levante last weekend dealt a serious blow to their survival prospects. Aside from the dropped points, the result also means they are now at a head-to-head disadvantage against the Granotes.
To avoid relegation, Mallorca must win their final game and hope for specific results elsewhere. They need Girona to defeat Elche, Getafe to beat Osasuna, and for Levante to avoid defeat away to Real Betis.
At the very least, they seem to be worth backing to take care of their own business. Mallorca’s average of 1.67 points per home game is the eighth-best in La Liga. Oviedo have taken just one point from their last five games and are missing their top scorer, Fede Vinas.
Real Betis vs Levante
On the surface, Levante have the toughest final fixture of the five sides fighting relegation. However, Real Betis are not playing for anything, having already sealed Champions League qualification.
Levante’s revival has been extraordinary. They were bottom of the table ahead of Matchday 15, but Luis Castro has transformed their season. The Valencia club have averaged 1.52 points per game since his appointment in December.
Now, all they need to do is avoid defeat against Betis to confirm their top-flight status. That’s no guarantee, given Los Verdiblancos have lost just three home matches all season in the league. However, it’s just two defeats in 12 outings for Levante, which should give them real confidence.
They can count on in-form striker Carlos Espi, who has already netted 10 times in 2026. Levante have scored at least twice in three consecutive matches leading up to the final day. They have done likewise in six of their past 12 games overall.
Backing over 2.5 goals and both teams to score seems good with an implied probability of 51.3%. That bet has been successful in three of Levante’s last four matches, and in all of Betis’ three most recent outings.