Despite a win at bottom club Wolves, Spurs have won one of their last 15 EPL games. Their increasing injury list may hinder their easier run-in too.
| 2025/26 Premier League Relegation Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tottenham | 1.67 |
| West Ham | 2.50 |
| Nottingham Forest | 17.00 |
| Leeds United | 26.00 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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Tottenham are the deserved favourites to fall through the relegation trapdoor
Roberto De Zerbi’s Spurs are currently two points below safety in the Premier League table with four games left to play. The bad news keeps on coming for Tottenham on the injury front. Xavi Simons was just starting to play himself into some form when he suffered an ACL knee injury at Wolves.
Meanwhile, top striker Dominic Solanke sustained a grade two hamstring tear, which looks likely to keep him sidelined for the remainder of the season. It could even rule him out of contention for the 2026 World Cup this summer.
Despite Spurs’ nervy 1-0 win at bottom club Wolves, there’s precious little for Tottenham backers to get behind right now.
The underlying metrics of their win at Molineux suggest it was far from convincing. They racked up just two big chances all game, registering 0.92 xG. Tottenham’s xG over the season is the fourth-worst in the division, suggesting that their 43 goals scored is a huge outlier against their 35.4 xG.
The Tottenham Hotspur Stadium should be a fortress, but it’s anything but right now. They’ve lost ten of their last 17 home games and are winless in their last nine at home.
The average points per game values of their upcoming opponents total 1.43. On paper, Spurs are likely to be underdogs in all four of their remaining fixtures. The betting markets suggest Tottenham's probability of facing relegation is 58.14%. However, it’s probably closer to 66%, given the latest news on Solanke and Simons.
The Hammers’ harder run-in could yet come back to haunt them
West Ham United have averaged 1.50 points per game from their last eight matches to lift themselves out of the bottom three. Although their goal difference is six worse than Tottenham’s, they currently hold a two-point advantage over their London rivals.
Although Spurs are just one win from hauling the Hammers back into the relegation zone, United have collected eight points from their last five games.
The biggest issue for West Ham is that two of their last four games involve teams with serious aspirations. Their next opponent, Brentford, still have a serious chance of qualifying for European football next season. A clash with Premier League title hopefuls Arsenal then follows that.
Their final game of the season at home to Leeds could be a great opportunity for them. If Daniel Farke’s Whites are safe by the final day, the Hammers could have far greater motivation to win on May 24.
West Ham have tightened up defensively, which should also aid their cause. They’ve conceded 1.13 goals per game in their last eight matches. That’s 33.9% down on their seasonal average (1.71 goals conceded per game). As an upwardly mobile team, it’s hard to back United for the drop with any confidence at a probability of 40%.
Forest’s late-season turnaround should be enough to keep them clear
Nottingham Forest have averaged 1.50 points per game from their last eight matches. Vitor Pereira has overseen a remarkable turnaround, including an appearance in the Europa League semi-finals.
Forest are currently five points clear of the relegation zone, so it would take at least two of Tottenham’s last four games to overhaul them. Forest are unbeaten in their last six league games though, so it’s difficult not to see them picking up further points from here.
Their improved goal output is the most striking statistic. Forest’s season average of 1.21 goals scored per game has been eclipsed by 65.3% in their last eight games. They are now averaging two goals scored per game.
The only thing that could distract Forest in their survival bid is their Europa League campaign. Should they reach the final, they could take their eyes off the ball domestically. However, winnable home games against Newcastle and Bournemouth give them every chance of getting the four points needed to stay up.
Leeds’ kind home fixtures should rule them out of the relegation running
With Leeds sitting in 15th place on 40 points, Daniel Farke’s men are all but safe. The betting markets suggest they have only a 4% chance of being relegated, which seems about right.
The average points per game tally of their four remaining opponents is just 0.87 points per game. They host Burnley at Elland Road next, who are already relegated. Leeds couldn’t ask for a better opportunity to secure their Premier League status this weekend.
They then travel to a beleaguered Tottenham side on May 11, which could be another opportunity for United to put a spanner in Spurs’ survival push.