EFL Cup Final fallout: 3 bets to consider following Arsenal’s heartache

The Gunners faced criticism for their cautious approach at Wembley. Do Arsenal have what it takes to get over the line and win the EPL trophy?

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

• Check out the bet365 bonus code to get sports bonuses upon registration.
• Claim the Sports Interaction welcome bonus.
• Learn more about the best Canadian sportsbooks to start your betting journey

Do City still have what it takes to overhaul Arsenal?

Undoubtedly, Manchester City completely outplayed Arsenal on Sunday afternoon. Following a tight first half, Pep Guardiola’s team pressed relentlessly for the rest of the match. Their intense pressure ultimately forced Kepa Arrizabalaga to make a mistake that eventually turned the tide in City’s favour.

Based on the statistics, Arsenal managed only 38.1% possession. They recorded only 18 touches inside City’s penalty area, compared to the 24 touches City had in the Gunners’ box. Surprisingly, City also won 13 aerial duels to Arsenal’s 10.

Furthermore, City completed 110 successful passes in the final third, while Arsenal only managed 46. This suggested that the Gunners lacked cohesion in attack.

Ultimately, this defeat suggests that City have the quality to outperform Arsenal over the rest of the campaign. If City win their game in hand and defeat the Gunners at the Etihad Stadium, they will sit just three points behind Arteta’s side.

The next two games will surely define City’s season. Securing a victory away at Chelsea would set the tone for the game with the Gunners. Chelsea are currently struggling, with manager Liam Rosenior overseeing a four-game losing run.

Backing City to win the title carries an implied probability of just 12.50%, which is a great value bet at the moment. However, the biggest advantage Arsenal have is their fixture list for the season run-in. Following their trip to City, Arsenal host Newcastle, Fulham, and a Burnley team that will almost certainly be relegated by then.

They will then finish their campaign with a London derby away to Crystal Palace, who are guaranteed to have nothing left to play for. Meanwhile, City host Aston Villa on the final day, and Villa will likely need a positive result to secure a spot in UCL or UEL.

Finding value in a City domestic cup double

There’s also the potential for City to win a domestic cup double, which could serve as the perfect farewell for Guardiola. They’ve been drawn against Liverpool in the quarter-finals, explaining why their odds are currently longer than Arsenal’s, who face Southampton in the last eight.

However, there are several reasons why we should consider backing City to overcome Liverpool. Firstly, Liverpool will be heavily focused on the Premier League title race and advancing in the Champions League.

Just four days after Liverpool travel to the Etihad in the FA Cup, they must play the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final against PSG. Arne Slot will have a tough decision to make regarding resting key players for the FA Cup match. This is especially true since several of his squad members have recently been on international duty.

It’s worth noting that City have won their last two competitive meetings with Liverpool. Furthermore, they have only lost two of their last eight encounters with the Reds. Backing City to win the FA Cup at a 25% probability seems like a very reasonable choice at this stage.

Should City progress to the semi-finals or even the final, it would be risky to bet against them. They’ve won nine of their last 11 domestic cup finals. Given the ongoing rumours about Guardiola’s long-term future, lifting both domestic cups would provide the ideal way for him to leave on a high note.

Could Atletico make headway in Arsenal’s half of the UCL draw?

Finally, we have a massive outsider tip for the Champions League outright betting market. Atletico Madrid are placed in the bottom half of the tournament bracket alongside Arsenal, and Diego Simeone’s team will face Barcelona in the quarter-finals.

Atleti have enjoyed the upper hand against Barca in their last two Champions League meetings. They secured a 3-2 aggregate victory during their 2015-16 quarter-final clash, and they also won 2-1 on aggregate at the exact same stage in the 2013/14 season. It seems quite fitting that these two Spanish giants are meeting once again in the last eight.

Simeone’s men will travel to the Nou Camp for the opening leg, which promises to be a crucial match. If they manage to secure a draw or snatch a narrow away win in Barcelona, they will instantly become huge favourites to reach the semi-finals.

Atleti are incredibly strong on home soil at the moment, having won 17 of their previous 20 matches in front of their own fans.

Should Atletico get past Barca, they are likely to face Arsenal in the last four. A team managed by Diego Simeone could prove to be Arsenal’s undoing. They are equally as pragmatic as the Gunners and know exactly how to use the darker, more physical side of the game to their advantage.

Should Arsenal find themselves dragged into an increasingly tight Premier League title race, the Gunners might lose focus on the Champions League. With Atleti well off the pace for La Liga, Simeone’s men can fully focus on winning their first-ever Champions League trophy.

For now, Atleti’s implied probability of just 4.76% to be crowned champions of Europe for the very first time seems slightly undervalued.