Since the removal of the UCL’s away goals rule in 2021 – a few patterns have emerged when sides meet repeatedly or face domestic rivals.
| UEL Knockout Playoffs 1st Leg | Home Odds | Draw Odds | Away Odds |
| Benfica vs Real Madrid | 3.60 | 3.60 | 1.90 |
| Monaco vs PSG | 5.25 | 4.20 | 1.53 |
| Olympiacos vs Leverkusen | 2.30 | 3.20 | 3.00 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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Analysing the re-run of Benfica vs Real
The dramatic 98th-minute goal by Benfica goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin, which secured a 4-2 victory over Real Madrid last month, remains a significant moment in the competition. As a result of their resilient performance, Jose Mourinho’s Benfica have been drawn to face them in the UCL knockout playoffs.
There are various narratives to consider when betting on the re-run over two legs. Most notably, Mourinho will have two more attempts to defeat one of his former clubs.
Secondly, it’s important to examine the statistics of their initial game in January. Benfica recorded 2.99 xG, significantly higher than Real’s 1.5. Furthermore, Benfica recorded 12 shots on target, compared to only six from Real Madrid. The Portuguese side also demonstrated greater offensive pressure, recording 47 touches inside the opposition's penalty area. Meanwhile, Los Blancos managed only 29 touches in Benfica’s box.
The two red cards issued to Real Madrid players in the 92nd and 96th minutes cannot be held responsible for the team’s lack of offensive efficiency. These dismissals occurred well after the period when Carlo Ancelotti’s side should have asserted control over the match.
There is an expectation that Real Madrid will apply the lessons learned from that defeat during the knockout playoffs. The historical trends suggest that the Spanish side often make tactical corrections in such rematches to secure an eventual victory.
In the 22/23 UCL quarter-finals, Inter Milan and Benfica drew 3-3 in a high-scoring second leg after Inter had won the first leg 2-0 in Lisbon. When they met again in the 23/24 UCL group stage, both teams adopted more cautious strategies, resulting in a narrow 1-0 win for Inter.
A similar trend involving Real occurred through the 2022, 2023, and 2024 UCL campaigns. Real faced Manchester City in all three campaigns. In 2022, both games were highly unpredictable, as they featured 11 goals. By the following season, City adapted to Real’s counter-attacking style, resulting in a cagey 1-1 draw followed by a dominant 4-0 win for City.
In 2024, both teams displayed significant mutual respect and tactical caution. The second leg ended in a 1-1 draw and was decided by a penalty shootout. This suggests that the more teams play each other, the more they understand their opponents’ style. Consequently, betting on a lower total number of goals is a safer strategy in critical knockout matches.
The domestic rivalry between PSG and Monaco
Another compelling narrative in this season's Champions League involves Paris Saint-Germain, who prepare to face Monaco in the knockout playoffs. In fact, the two teams will face each other three times in two and a half weeks. Twice in the UCL, followed by a pivotal Ligue 1 game at the Parc des Princes.
PSG have a strong recent record against domestic rivals in European competition. They dominated Champions League first-timers Brest last season, winning 10-0 on aggregate.
However, a dominant victory over AS Monaco is not guaranteed, as the club have won four of their last seven clashes at the Stade Louis II. However, Les Parisiens have scored nine goals in their last two home games combined against Monaco.
This suggests that Monaco will likely need to establish an advantage in the first leg to remain competitive when they travel to Paris for the second leg.
Recent trends suggest that Monaco could present a difficult challenge for PSG. During the 2022/23 season, AC Milan successfully contained a Napoli side that held a 14-point lead at the top of Serie A. Despite Napoli’s domestic dominance, Milan won 1-0 at home and secured a 1-1 draw away to progress.
Similarly, in 2020/21, Chelsea utilized a specific defensive strategy to repeatedly defeat Manchester City across various competitions, including the Champions League final. These cases serve as a reminder that an underdog with a clear tactical plan can overcome a favored opponent.
The underdog paradox looms large for Olympiacos
Greek side Olympiacos managed to defeat Bayer Leverkusen in their penultimate UCL League Phase game. This 2-0 home win secured their place in the top 24, setting up a two-legged rematch against the same German opponent.
Typically, teams from leagues with lower European coefficients can maintain a high level of intensity for a single match, but sustaining that performance over a two-legged tie is often more difficult.
At least that’s what recent trends suggest. In fact, the underdog paradox is a major trap for bettors in the UCL over recent seasons. Teams from outside the traditional "Big 5" leagues often struggle in knockout rematches against elite opponents after winning the initial game. Statistically, 80% of these teams fail to defeat the same opponent twice in a single tournament.
This doesn’t bode well for Olympiacos, who lost top spot in the Greek Super League at the weekend. Leverkusen are on a three-game unbeaten streak and are only three points shy of the Bundesliga’s top four.
With the stakes now raised, Leverkusen will face a psychological and tactical shift. The fact that the German side will host the second leg could be a decisive factor, provided they can manage the intense atmosphere of the Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium during the first leg.