Even with Lionel Messi, Argentina's hopes of a successful World Cup defence look bleak

On paper, Argentina's 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign could hardly have gone better. They topped the CONMEBOL standings by nine points ahead of second-placed Ecuador while posting the best attacking record. Messi scored eight goals to finish as top scorer in qualifying for the first time ever.

However, that dominance was a reflection of the drop in quality across the rest of the field, with traditional rivals Uruguay and Brazil finishing fourth and fifth, respectively. There were worrying low points for Scaloni, too, most notably in defeats to Uruguay and Paraguay, and a 1-1 draw at home to Colombia, all of which Messi started.

There was also a successful Copa America defence wedged in between the qualifying campaign, but again, the consensus at the end of that tournament was that Argentina did not hit top gear. They were grinding out wins without playing particularly well, and that theme has largely continued in their build up to the 2026 World Cup.

Argentina played their first World Cup warm-up game against Venezuela in October, winning 1-0 without Messi. They have only played three games since then, though, and the quality of the opposition has plummeted.

After wrapping up 2026 with a 6-0 hammering of Puerto Rico and a 2-0 win over Angola, the Albiceleste belatedly scheduled two more friendly games for the March international break against Mauritania, who are 115th in the FIFA world rankings, and 91st-ranked Zambia. These are not fixtures that tell us anything substantial about Argentina's current level.

Indeed, Mauritania went down 2-1 to the three-time World Cup winners on Friday, in a contest played at a snail's pace. Goals from Fernandez and Nico Paz did little to mask a lethargic display from Argentina, while half-time substitute Messi was mobbed by Mauritania players and staff after the final whistle at La Bombonera.

These lesser nations are just glad to be in Messi's orbit; they don't offer any genuine challenge to Argentina, so it's difficult for the players to summon their usual enthusiasm. Not that Scaloni was in the mood to accept that reality.

"The team didn't play a good match. We have to say that so we can work on improving", he said after the game. "We evidently can play much better; we've done it. All the guys we've been able to see have contributed their part, but when a match becomes complicated, it's harder."

Frustrated goalkeeper Martinez went a step further: "It was one of the worst friendlies we've played. We lacked intensity, game and speed. It's something we need to analyse and every time we wear the jersey do a little bit better."

Martinez then addressed the elephant in the room: "Thank goodness [the Finalissima wasn't played], if we had played like this we would've lost."

Argentina had no choice but to approach Mauritania and Zambia after seeing their clash against European champions Spain in Qatar, as well as a subsequent friendly against the 2022 World Cup hosts, called off at late notice due to the ongoing military conflict in the Middle East.

All of the more competitive countries had already locked in other commitments, and though the Finalissima could have been moved to the Bernabeu, Argentina baulked at the idea of playing such a fixture in front of what likely would have been a partisan Spanish crowd.

Yes, a defeat may have been on the cards, because Martinez is right about Argentina not being in optimal shape, but it would have been far more beneficial than two half-hearted run-outs. Nicolas Tagliafico pointed out as much in his refreshingly honest reaction to the cancellation, saying: "If we put the title and the Finalissima aside, it was going to be an important match because you’re facing a team that you know also has a chance to compete for the World Cup. That helps you, it gives you a benchmark. It shows us where we might stand, and whether there are things to improve."

The 2022 Finalissima was certainly important for Argentina, as Messi and Di Maria led a scintillating 3-0 triumph over Euro 2020 winners Italy. Without that, easy friendly wins against the UAE, Jamaica, Honduras and Estonia would have been the only "benchmark", and confidence in the squad that went to Qatar wouldn't have been as high.

It also served to drum up anticipation for supporters, which the 2026 World Cup desperately needs amid constant conversation about off pitch-issues. Add to that the fact that the world was robbed of Messi facing off against his Barcelona successor, Lamine Yamal, and the whole saga leaves a very bitter taste.

There has been a lot of doubt around Messi's participation at the next World Cup, fuelled mainly by the man himself.

"I'm going to assess that on a day-to-day basis when I start pre-season next year with Inter [Miami] and see if I can really be 100 percent, if I can be useful and then make a decision," he said in October. "I'm really eager because it's a World Cup. We're coming off winning the last one, and being able to defend it on the field again is spectacular because it's always a dream to play with the national team."

Before the Mauritania game, Scaloni confirmed that Messi has still not made a final decision, telling reporters: "I will do everything I can to make sure he is there. I believe that he has to be there, for the sake of football, but it's not me who decides. It's up to him, how he feels in his mind and his physical condition. He has earned the right to decide calmly. We are not in a rush. We know that whatever he decides will be the best thing for both him and the team."

It is best for Argentina that Messi is there, because he is still a match-winner. We've seen that again in the early stages of the 2026 MLS campaign, as he's netted four goals in as many appearances for Inter Miami. Barring a serious injury, which the club are doing everything to protect him against, the eight-time Ballon d'Or winner will surely captain his country at a record sixth World Cup.

However, this is not the same Messi who was omnipresent in Argentina's 2022 success. His legs won't last for 90 minutes every five or six days, especially not at an expanded World Cup that could see the holders play a total of eight matches.

"It's difficult because it's not just Argentinians who want to see him, everyone wants to see him," Scaloni continued. "And then we have the dilemma as his coaches when he's there, if he's able to play the whole game or if he's not."

The question is, do Argentina have enough back-up when Messi is being rested? The recent evidence would suggest the answer is 'no'.

Messi missed the two away World Cup qualifying games the Albiceleste lost to Colombia and Ecuador due to injury, and there was an obvious creative void. Di Maria's retirement after the last Copa America also stripped the team of its most dangerous attacking outlet, and while Atletico Madrid's Nico Gonzalez has filled in on the left-flank, his end product and technical ability pale in comparison to Di Maria's.

Argentina have lost their edge in midfield, too, with chief enforcer Rodrigo De Paul, now on the books of Inter Miami alongside Messi, no longer as mobile at 31, while Fernandez and Mac Allister are both enduring inconsistent seasons at club level. It's not all bad news, though.

Alvarez has shown signs that he is peaking at the right time upfront for Atletico, while Lautaro is enjoying another fine campaign with Serie A champions-elect Inter, and Real Madrid youngster Franco Mastantuano could be a wildcard. In the form of Como sensation Paz, Argentina also have a ready-made replacement for Messi. He can cut in from the right and link the play, while he also shares Messi's set-piece prowess.

All that being said, Paz has only won seven international caps to date. There's no telling whether the 21-year-old will be able to handle the pressure of easing the burden on Messi when he steps onto the global stage for the first time. It's also true that Messi is the one who brings everything together for Argentina. They don't have their normal fluidity when he is absent, and no one else has quite the same capacity for moments of pure genius that make the difference in tight games.

The defence that underpinned Argentina's 2022 success is not as solid this time around either. Former Manchester City centre-back Otamendi is looking every inch of his 38 years, with his penchant for rash challenges and stepping out of position more easily punished. His partner, Cristian Romero, has been a liability throughout Tottenham's dismal 2025-26 season, which could yet end in relegation.

The two men who started as full-backs in the 2022 World Cup final, Lisandro Martinez and Gonzalo Montiel, have both been struggling with injury, and though Argentina still have the more than capable Nahuel Molina to call on in the right-back slot, Tagliafico and Marcos Acuna are both well past their peak as the current options on the opposite flank. Even beloved shot-stopper Martinez has come under a bit of scrutiny, allowing too many basic errors to creep into his game at Aston Villa.

Argentina should still be a genuine force, not least because they'll be well adapted to the scorching heat in North America, but the fear factor is missing. Pre-tournament favourites Spain and France will certainly fancy their chances if they come up against Scaloni's men, because they boast superior depth and cohesion in every position.

Algeria and Austria might both be smelling a major upset in Group J, too. Argentina need time to build up proper rhythm again, which they simply do not have now. There is a real danger that the Messi era will end with a whimper if Scaloni cannot strike the right balance.