The objective is simple for West Ham on Sunday. They must win to overhaul Tottenham if results go their way. Can they overcome Leeds?
Best Bets for West Ham United vs Leeds United
- West Ham United to win & Both teams to score (Yes) at odds of 3.60 with bet365
- Both teams to score (Yes) & over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.05 with bet365
- Jarrod Bowen to assist at odds of 4.75 with bet365
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Leeds’ injuries and away form put West Ham in the driving seat
Daniel Farke’s Leeds United have been far from prolific away from Elland Road. In fact, they’ve won just two away games so far this season, losing seven and drawing nine. Their points-per-game average is just 0.83 on the road, meaning their excellent home form has been the bedrock of their survival this season.
Although West Ham have lost half of their home games this season, this weekend’s game presents an entirely different challenge. In essence, it’s a one-off cup final for Nuno Espirito Santo’s men. With two points separating them from Spurs in 17th, they must win to maintain their survival ambitions. With Farke admitting that his first-team squad has been heavily depleted in recent weeks, West Ham can certainly take advantage of the situation.
Leeds are now well safe from relegation and can focus on rebuilding and going again next season. West Ham have conceded in 89% of their home games, though, and Leeds have averaged 1.11 goals per away game. So we can back a home win and both teams to score at a probability of only 27.78%.
- West Ham United vs Leeds United Bet 1: West Ham United to win & Both teams to score (Yes) at odds of 3.60 with bet365
Both attacks poised to exploit defensive gaps
Three or more goals have been scored In 61% of West Ham’s home matches this season. Moreover, the same statistic applies to 50% of Leeds’ away games.
West Ham and Leeds have conceded at least one goal in 89% of their home and away games, respectively. Consequently, combining both teams to score and over 2.5 total goals makes sense here, too.
Leeds are by no means at full strength defensively. Pascal Struijk remains a major injury concern. Meanwhile, defensive midfielder Ethan Ampadu is also managing an injury and might not be risked on the final day of the season. This situation could leave Leeds much more vulnerable against a team that absolutely must win.
- West Ham United vs Leeds United Bet 2: Both teams to score (Yes) & over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.05 with bet365
Backing Bowen to create a key goal on Sunday
Jarrod Bowen has been West Ham’s main talisman for several seasons. The 29-year-old is a notable Hammers player and has recorded solid attacking statistics again this season. He’s registered ten assists and eight goals in 37 matches, averaging almost one goal contribution every two games.
Bowen has been working incredibly hard to pull the Hammers out of the relegation zone. He’s picked up four goal assists in his last six EPL matches. That’s an assist strike rate of 66% since early April.
Over the course of the season, Bowen’s assist strike rate has sat at 27%. Yet we can back him to provide a vital assist on Sunday at a probability of only 21.05%. There’s definite value here, as Bowen will undoubtedly lead the attack this weekend.
- West Ham United vs Leeds United Bet 3: Jarrod Bowen to assist at odds of 4.75 with bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - West Ham United 2-1 Leeds United
- Goalscorers prediction - West Ham United: Wilson, Fernandes - Leeds United: Calvert-Lewin
The Hammers know that only three points will be enough to increase the pressure on relegation rivals Tottenham Hotspur on the final day. If West Ham win and Everton defeat Spurs in north London, Nuno Espirito Santo’s men can avoid relegation by a single point.
It won’t be easy for the hosts, though, since Leeds have won four of their last six games to haul themselves free of relegation worries. The Hammers have suffered three consecutive losses in contrast. Nevertheless, they have an excellent opportunity to correct their recent mistakes on Sunday.
Leeds have found themselves outside the relegation zone for much of the season. The Premier League new boys have adapted supremely well to life back in the top tier under Daniel Farke. The German boss failed in his attempt to avoid Premier League relegation with former club Norwich, but he has made the challenge look significantly easier with the Whites.
Farke is likely to be without several senior players for the trip to East London. Facundo Buonanotte has a hamstring concern. Meanwhile, Jayden Bogle (hamstring), Gabi Gudmundsson (hamstring), Noah Okafor (calf), Pascal Struijk (hip), Brenden Aaronson (dead leg), and Anton Stach (knock) are all rated highly doubtful for Sunday.
Probable lineups for West Ham vs Leeds
West Ham United expected lineup: Hermansen, Disasi, Mavropanos, Todibo, Diouf, Wan-Bissaka, Soucek, Fernandes, Summerville, Bowen, Wilson
Leeds United expected lineup: Darlow, Rodon, Bijol, Bornauw, James, Justin, Tanaka, Ampadou, Longstaff, Aaronson, Calvert-Lewin