Miami was one of the best stories of the college basketball regular season. The Redhawks recorded a perfect 31-0 record to finish top of the Mid-American Championship (MAC). Their fairytale run came apart quickly once tournament play began, however, as they were upset by No. 8 seed UMass in the first round of the MAC competition. There were concerns that loss would cost Miami its place at the Dance, but the committee ultimately rewarded its undefeated regular season with an at-large bid as one of the last four teams in.
The Mustangs return to the Dance after nine years away after putting up a 20-13 season (8-10 in conference play) to finish 11th in the ACC. They earned an at-large bid despite a dramatic late collapse which saw the team lose five of its last six games, including Wednesday’s L at the hands of Louisville which ended its ACC Tournament run in the second round.
That disastrous end to the regular season coincided with BJ Edwards going down with an ankle injury. Edwards sat for all of SMU’s last six games, but the team announced Friday that it expects the senior to be available for the NCAA Tournament, which could spell bad news for the Redhawks.
Miami (OH) vs SMU Predictions - 9:15pm EST - 3/17
- Eian Elmer 3+ three-pointers made (-111)
- Over 164 (-116)
- SMU -7 (-116)
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing, and subject to change.
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Miami (OH) vs SMU Odds
- Spread: SMU -7 (-116)
- Moneyline: SMU (-323) Miami OH (+212)
- Total: 164 points
Miami (OH) vs SMU Picks
Elmer to maintain hot hand from deep
Eian Elmer has been one of the many bright spots to come out of Miami’s incredible undefeated regular season. The junior wing averages 12.6 points per game in 2025-26 while also putting up 6.0 rebounds and 1.2 assists, making him a key all-round asset for the Redhawks. But perhaps his most impressive talent is his consistency when it comes to scoring from deep.
The Cinncinati native has sunk an average of 2.1 3-pointers per game across the season, leading his team. He went 4-6 from 3-point range against Ohio in the regular season finale and netted another three in the MAC Tournament loss to UMass. SMU is weak defending long shots and should give Elmer plenty of chances to rack up the points from deep.
- Miami (OH) vs SMU Prediction 1: Eian Elmer 3+ Total 3-pointers made (-111)
Points to flow in Dayton - Over 164 (-116)
Miami and SMU are two of college basketball’s most prolific points scorers and with each team’s season on the line Tuesday, we should see plenty of action around the rim as both go all out to get the win in Dayton, Ohio.
The Redhawks have an O/U record of 19-10 overall this year and 8-2 in non-conference matchups, while also going 3-0 on the over as the underdog. SMU is 20-12-1 on the over in 2025-26 and 7-1 when playing with four or more days rest. With Edwards coming, back, the Mustangs should be even more dangerous on offense. They average 84.2 ppg (22nd in Division I) while giving up 77.6 ppg (256th in college basketball).
Miami has also been relentless, taking full advantage of an admittedly soft schedule. Its mark of 87.2 ppg ranks fifth of all Division I schools this year. Both Miami and SMU like to get to the rim quick and place within the top 50 NCAAB programs on pace of play, with 74 and 73.4 possessions per game respectively.
- Miami (OH) vs SMU Prediction 2: Over 164 points (-116)
Mustangs too hot for Hawks (SMU -7)
There are a lot of tough questions surrounding this fascinating First Four contest. How much of Miami’s brilliant run was down to its weak schedule, and how much its own merit? Can SMU turn it around after falling to pieces over the last two months? And how ready will Edwards be for the Dance after a long lay-off?
It’s a tough one to call, but I like SMU to break out of its slump and cover. Miami will have to pick itself up after getting humbled by UMass and it has almost no experience this year playing opposition of this caliber. The Redhawks didn’t play a single game against Q1 teams in 2025-26 and only just slipped past Akron at home. Tuesday is a whole different challenge and one which may be beyond them.
The Mustangs finished the season with a NET ranking of 37 even after going 1-5 at the end. Their effective FG% of 55.7% places 27th among Division I schools. That bodes well against Miami, which gives up a lot of shooting opportunities, while SMU will also be encouraged by how UMass dominated the Redhawks at the glass during the latter stages of that last loss. The return of Edwards gives SMU enough depth to get through this game and I expect it to cover.
This is the kind of stop that has troubled Toronto lately. The Raptors’ record against playoff-level opposition is mixed, with recent losses to San Antonio, OKC, the Knicks, Timberwolves and Rockets all taking their toll.
- Miami (OH) vs SMU Prediction 3: Mustangs -7 (-116)
Miami (OH) vs SMU Start Time
- Start Time: 9:15pm EST
- Location: UD Arena
- Address: 1801 Edwin C Moses Blvd. Dayton, OH 45417
- TV & Streaming: truTV, March Madness Live app
The NCAA Tournament begins this Tuesday with the First Four. One of the most interesting matchups takes place in Dayton OH as Miami (OH) meets SMU. After losing its unbeaten record to UMass the Redhawks are now looking to pull off an historic upset. The winner of this game will move on to face Tennessee in round one of the Midwest regional.