The Bulls are one of the form teams going into the Dance. USF has won all of its last 11 games, a run which led the program to first place in the AAC regular season, where it finished with a 15-3 conference record, and victory in the American Tournament thanks to wins over Charlotte and Wichita State. USF picked up an 11 seed for the NCAA Tournament and will be hungry for an upset over the Cardinals.
AP’s 24th-ranked Louisville struggled at the end of the year. The Cardinals dropped three of their last six ACC regular season games to fall down to sixth in the standings with an 11-7 record, while tournament play ended with a tight loss to Miami in the quarters. They are looking to win their first NCAA Tournament game in nine years after going out in the first round in 2025 at the hands of Creighton.
Louisville vs USF Predictions - 1:30pm EST - 3/19
- Wes Enis 20+ points 3+ three-pointers made (+125)
- Over 165.5 (-116)
- USF +5 (-116)
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing, and subject to change.
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Louisville vs USF Odds
- Spread: Louisville -5 (-116)
- Moneyline: USF (+175) Louisville (-244)
- Total: 165.5 points
Louisville vs USF Picks
Enis to lead USF charge with 20+ points (+125)
USF has been one of the most prolific scoring units in college basketball across 2025-26 and much of that is down to Wes Enis’ impact. The guard leads Bulls players with 16.7 ppg this year and has come into his own down the stretch. In five games so far in March Enis averages 23.4 ppg and has broken the 20-point barrier in all but one of those contests.
The junior takes a lot of shots, with 13.6 field goal attempts per game this season. He should get plenty of chances on Thursday too against an offense-focused Louisville team. Another 20-point haul looks well within reach and is a smart bet at this price.
- Louisville vs USF Prediction 1: Wes Enis 20+ total points @ +125
Bulls and Cardinals to score big - Over 165.5 (-116)
These two teams love to shoot and move the ball fast, and that should lead to a big score in Buffalo.
USF placed eighth in all of Division I basketball this year with a massive 87.7 points per game over the regular season and tournament play. The Bulls are volume shooters, ranking third with an average of 65.7 field goal attempts per game. They are also slick from the line, leading all of NCAAB with 20.1 free throws made per game.
The Bulls went 7-5 on the over when playing as underdog. They are up against some of the sport’s best shooters from deep, with Louisville hitting an average of 11.5 3-pointers over the season (5th in D-I). Look for a lot of shots and a lot of points on the board when they meet.
- Louisville vs USF Prediction 2: Over 165.5 points @ -116
Bulls to push all the way - USF +5 (-116)
Louisville is a tough team and should make it through this round one matchup. But USF will push hard too and look a good bet to cover even if the Bulls don’t have quite enough to spring an upset.
USF is 18-14 ATS this year and covered in its sole game against ranked opposition, a loss to Alabama back in December. The Bulls are 2-0 in their last two outings as underdog. The Cardinals are 2-6 ATS in their last eight. USF’s energy and ability to draw fouls will keep this interesting right to the end.
The Floridians also have a strong turnover percentage (14.6% of plays) while drawing plenty of takeaways themselves, an average of 14 per game (33rd in Division I). And with an offensive rebound rate of 35.6% USF can keep hold of possession even while missing a lot of shots.
- Louisville vs USF Prediction 3: USF +5 @ -116
Louisville vs USF Start Time
- Start Time: 1:30pm EST
- Location: KeyBank Center
- Address: Buffalo, NY
- TV & Streaming: Paramount+, HBO Max, March Madness Live app
Buffalo, NY plays host to an interesting matchup in the East region of the NCAA Tournament. No. 6 seed Louisville (No. 23 AP) takes on 11 seed USF, this year’s AAC champion. The Bulls were in great shape to finish the regular season and will look to take that form into round one, with a potential matchup against Michigan State or North Dakota State on the line.