Arizona is looking to cap a historic campaign with its second National Championship. The Wildcats opened the 2025-26 season with a run of 25 unbeaten games before going down to Kansas. They are 36-2 on the season, picking up the Big 12 title and advancing to the Final Four with four wins by a margin of 12 points or higher. This is Arizona’s first trip to the Final Four since its championship back in 1998.
Like the Wildcats, Michigan was one of the four top seeds to start the NCAA Tournament. It has lived up to that billing, crushing Tennessee in the Midwest regional final to return to the Final Four after an eight-year absence. The Wildcats are 35-3 on the year and went to the Big Ten tournament game, where they lost 80-72 to Purdue. Yaxel Lendeborg has led the way by averaging 15.2 points and 7.3 rebounds per game, winning the Big Ten Player of the Year and consensus first-team All-American honors.
Arizona vs Michigan Predictions - 8:49pm - 4/4
- Aday Mara 15+ points (+130)
- Under 157.5 (-116)
- Michigan -1.5 (-110)
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing, and subject to change.
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Arizona vs Michigan Odds
- Spread: Michigan -1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Michigan (-120), Arizona (+100)
- Total: O/U 157.5 points (-110)
Arizona vs Michigan Picks
Big game incoming from Mara - Mara +15 points (+130)
Aday Mara has been a particular highlight of a memorable season for Michigan. The giant Spanish center was a transfer portal pickup from UCLA and picked up exactly where he left off with the Bruins after joining his new team for his junior year.
Mara has made the transition to everyday starter seamlessly in Lansing. He averages 11.8 ppg over 37 starts while also pitching in with 6.8 rebounds and 2.2 assists. In the process he has also made big strides in shooting, pushing up his field goal percentage from 59% in his last year at UCLA to 68% in 2025-26 - and even sinking his first three-point shots in a Big Ten win over Ohio State.
Michigan will be looking for its big to step up and take the pressure off Lendeborg, and Mara has the physical presence to make it happen. Look for the Spanish national to have a huge game in the Final Four and get into double figures early.
- Arizona vs Michigan Prediction 1: Aday Mara 15+ total points (+130)
Elite teams cancel each other out at rim - Under 157.5 (-110)
Arizona and Michigan have been scoring freely all year, leading to consistently big totals. But with so much on the line Saturday I can see a low-scoring game unfolding that lands square on the under.
Behind those impressive points tallies lie two elite defenses. Michigan restricts opponents to a success rate of 38.4% shooting from the field, the best mark of any team in Division I basketball this year. Arizona is not far behind, with teams shooting just 39.2% against the Wildcats (4th in D-I). That may lead to neither of these schools finding an easy route to the rim as they have been used to all season, leading to plenty of missed shots.
Arizona went 15-16 on the over this year in the regular season and 5-6 when playing on neutral ground. Michigan had a regular season record of 12-19 on the over and is 16-21 playing as favorite. This should stay tight throughout with both defenses looking sharp.
- Arizona vs Michigan Prediction 2: Under 157.5 points (-110)
Wolverines to come through - Michigan -1.5 (-110)
This should be an extremely close game between two of the NCAAB’s strongest programs. But I have to give the edge to Michigan, who I am backing to come through and cover a narrow spread.
The Wolverines appear to have a clear advantage from deep. They have made an impressive 45 three-pointers in their four NCAA Tournament games, against 25 for the Wildcats. On the season Michigan averages 9.3 3PM/G, almost twice Arizona’s mark of 5.9/G (336th in D-I).
Michigan is also elite at the rim, grabbing 33.2% of offensive board attempts. If it can limit the fouls and keep Arizona away from the line, where it can do real damage, this looks like Michigan’s to lose. The Wolverines are 8-5 ATS against ranked opponents and 3-1 ATS so far in the NCAA Tournament. Look for them to make that 4-1 on Saturday.
- Arizona vs Michigan Prediction 3: Wolverines -1.5 (-110)
Arizona vs Michigan Start Time
- Start Time: 8:49pm EST
- Location: Lucas Oil Stadium
- Address: Indianapolis, IN
- TV & Streaming: Paramount+, HBO Max, March Madness Live app
Two of the strongest teams in college basketball this year lock horns in the second game of Saturday’s Final Four double-header in Indianapolis. Both Arizona and Michigan cruised through their regional tournaments and whoever wins looks well placed to make a bid for the title in the championship game. The Wildcats or Wolverines will take on the winner of UConn-Illinois in Monday’s big finale.