Serie A top goalscorer odds: Martinez injury creates a betting opportunity

Since the 1990/91 season, nobody in Serie A has been the top scorer with fewer than 20 goals. However, that is likely to change this term.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

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Lautaro Martinez

Inter’s Lautaro Martinez has been the most consistent goalscorer in Italian football in recent years. He netted at least 20 goals in three consecutive Serie A seasons between 2021 and 2024. While he has only struck 16 times this term, he’s still five clear of his nearest rival in the top scorer race.

That’s a commanding lead to have with only six matches to go, particularly in such a low-scoring season. The likes of Mateo Retegui, Victor Osimhen and Ciro Immobile are no longer in Serie A. That has left Martinez as one of the few remaining strikers capable of posting big goal numbers.

However, there is reason to think Martinez may not significantly add to his current tally. The 28-year-old was sidelined for nearly two months with an injury before returning with a brace against Roma in April. After just one game back, he has suffered a fresh setback.

Reports suggest he will miss at least the next two matches against Cagliari and Torino. With a nine-point lead, Inter may well have wrapped up the title by the time Martinez returns. That means there’s little reason for Cristian Chivu to rush his star forward back into action.

The World Cup is on the horizon, while Inter also hope to reach the Coppa Italia final. That suggests Martinez may not feature heavily again this season in Serie A. At such short odds, backing him to finish as the top scorer isn’t worth the risk.

Rasmus Hojlund

Martinez’s fitness issues do open the door for another player to surpass the Argentine with a great end to the season. Napoli’s Rasmus Hojlund is one of six players currently on 10 goals. He has enjoyed a solid campaign in Italy following a loan move from Man Utd.

The Danish international has struck in two of his last five Serie A appearances. He averages a goal every 225 minutes in the Italian top flight. That’s a big improvement on a poor 2024/25 Premier League campaign.

What may work in Hojlund’s favour is that four of Napoli’s remaining six fixtures are at home. He also has to face two bottom-four opponents in the shape of Cremonese and Pisa.

With no other distractions, Napoli will be fully focused on the league. They should dominate against those struggling sides, which may push Hojlund towards Martinez’s tally. He could be worth backing, with an implied probability of 5.9%.

Marcus Thuram

Another player who can still catch Martinez is his regular Inter strike partner Marcus Thuram. The Frenchman scored a brace against Como last time out to take his Serie A season tally to 10 goals. He was also on target against Roma in his previous match.

Thuram had only scored once in 16 appearances in all competitions prior to the international break. A late-season run would boost his prospects of featuring more prominently at the World Cup.

Along with Hojlund, the betting markets suggest he is the player most capable of catching Martinez. However, it is possible that Thuram may be rested in some matches once the title has been clinched.

It’s also worth noting that the 28-year-old has never scored more than 14 league goals in a single season. With serious ground to make up on his teammate, it’s hard to see value in backing Thuram.

Donyell Malen

The Serie A top scorer battle could yet have a remarkable finale, with Donyell Malen rapidly climbing the rankings. The Dutchman only moved to Roma in January on loan from Aston Villa.

In just 12 matches in the Italian top flight, he has scored 10 goals. Only Harry Kane can surpass that record in Europe’s big-five leagues over the same period.

That stunning run has been enough to propel the 27-year-old into joint-fourth place in the scoring charts. The momentum is certainly with the former Borussia Dortmund man, who netted the first hat-trick of the Serie A season last weekend.

With an average of a strike every 97 minutes in Serie A, Malen is on course to finish on 15 or 16 goals. Remaining fixtures against Parma, Fiorentina and Verona could see him better that.

Given Martinez’s fitness issues are a growing concern, Malen looks like a great outside bet. He’s given a 4.8% chance of capping a remarkable few months by winning the Capocannoniere.

Anastasios Douvikas

Como duo Anastasios Douvikas and Nico Paz are currently joint-second in the Serie A goalscorer standings. The pair are on 11 goals apiece, but still have plenty of work to do to catch Martinez.

Paz has enjoyed a sensational season. However, as an attacking midfielder, it’ll be tougher for him to post big numbers in such a short time.

Douvikas is a clinical finisher and has a history of scoring freely. He netted 19 times for Utrecht in the 2022/23 Eredivisie. Despite not starting regularly, he also averaged a goal every 127 minutes for Celta Vigo in the 2023/24 La Liga season.

Seven of his 11 Serie A goals this term have come in 2026. He is currently Cesc Fabregas’ preferred striker option in a top-four chasing Como side. However, he faces competition from the likes of Alvaro Morata.

Rotation and a lack of minutes may ultimately cost Douvikas the opportunity to challenge for the top scorer. The Greek international has completed the full game on only one occasion since January. Since a brace against Torino, he has played more than an hour in only four of his 13 appearances.