The stage is set for a night of tension and drama on Tuesday, with three underdogs playing at home on what could be a historic evening for Kosovo.
| World Cup play-off markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Bosnia and Herzegovina +1 Handicap vs Italy | 2.65 |
| Sweden to win vs Poland | 2.05 |
| Kosovo +1 Handicap vs Turkey | 1.87 |
| Denmark to win vs Czech Republic | 2.00 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Italy
The biggest potential storyline in the final week of World Cup qualifying is Italy's possible elimination. The four-time champions have not qualified for either of the previous two tournaments. A third consecutive failure would extend a difficult period for the Azzurri.
That prospect will create significant pressure for the Italian players in Zenica. Play-off defeats against Sweden and North Macedonia ended their World Cup hopes early during the previous two qualification cycles. Furthermore, 3-0 and 4-1 losses against Norway in the group stage indicate this might be an even weaker Italian team in 2026.
Gennaro Gattuso's team also needed a 91st-minute goal to beat Israel in the group stage on neutral territory in Hungary. There is little evidence to suggest they will comfortably defeat a physical Bosnia and Herzegovina team playing away from home.
The Bosnians came extremely close to securing automatic qualification during the autumn. Only a 77th-minute goal from Austria in their final group fixture denied them first place. They offer value with a +1 handicap against Italy.
Sweden vs Poland
Graham Potter was given two matches to experiment after accepting the Sweden manager position in October. Everything was focused on preparing for a play-off campaign they had secured through the Nations League.
They didn't impress in the Englishman's first two games, but the Scandinavians delivered when it truly mattered last week. A 3-1 semi-final victory against Ukraine was completely deserved.
Sweden generated 2.32 xG to their opponents' 0.76 during a match played in Valencia. Interestingly, they secured that victory with only 32% ball possession, representing a clear break from Potter's usual possession-based tactical style.
Viktor Gyokeres scored all three goals, and he could be the deciding factor against Poland in the final. The Swedes boast an unbeaten home run against this opposition that extends back to 1930. They offer good value against a Polish side that created only 0.91 xG in their home semi-final against Albania.
Kosovo vs Turkey
Kosovo potentially qualifying for their first major tournament, only one decade after their first competitive fixture, would also be a massive achievement. They came within 90 minutes of qualifying for Euro 2020. However, a squad severely affected by Covid-19 restrictions suffered a narrow defeat against North Macedonia. Back in the play-offs, they appear to be a more experienced international team.
They were ranked 99th in the world, positioned below teams such as Luxembourg, when they began the qualification process for this tournament. However, former Austria boss Franco Foda has done a fantastic job.
Kosovo lost only one of their six games in a competitive Group B, which also featured Slovenia, Switzerland, and Sweden. They then secured a surprise 4-3 away win against Slovakia in their play-off semi-final last week. Those results have undoubtedly boosted their confidence ahead of this fixture.
This is a talented Turkish side that can rely on young talents such as Arda Guler and Kenan Yildiz. However, the visitors have clear defensive flaws, having conceded 12 times across their six group matches. Backing Kosovo with a +1 handicap could be a smart pick.
Czech Republic vs Denmark
The Czech Republic have qualified for the World Cup only once since separating from Slovakia during the 1990s. They have home advantage in Prague again this week, but they will need to perform better than they did during the semi-finals.
Miroslav Koubek's side needed an 86th-minute goal from Ladislav Krejci to force extra time against the Republic of Ireland. Despite only creating two big chances across 120 minutes, they eventually won on penalties.
In regulation time, the Czechs have secured just two victories across their previous six matches. Those victories came against San Marino and Gibraltar. They also lost to the Faroe Islands in the group stage, and they're clear underdogs against Denmark on Tuesday night.
The Danes feature a dangerous attacking trio consisting of Gustav Isaksen, Rasmus Hojlund, and Mikkel Damsgaard. They comfortably secured a 4-0 victory against North Macedonia in their semi-final. Brian Riemer's team have now scored 20 goals across their last six fixtures.
The visitors can also take confidence from a seven-game unbeaten run against the Czech Republic. That record extends back to a 3-0 quarter-final defeat at Euro 2004. Backing Denmark to win in 90 minutes seems good with an implied probability of 51.3%.