How to bet on the UCL final involving the best defence and attack

Interestingly, PSG have won their last two meetings with the Gunners - and conceded only one goal in the process. Is their defence also underrated?

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.

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  Goals should flow at both ends

  Both sides have got on the scoresheet in four of the last six meetings between the two teams. Although the head-to-head strike rate for Both Teams to Score is 66%, the betting markets believe there’s only a 55.56% chance of it happening this weekend.

  The Gunners are likely to be more relaxed after winning the Premier League title. Therefore, we foresee both sides going toe to toe in Budapest.

  PSG have conceded 22 goals during their run to the UCL final. That’s almost four times the goals-against tally of Arsenal. However, there is an important statistic which suggests the Gunners’ defensive record may not be as sustainable as it seems.

  Arsenal have overperformed on their goals conceded metrics, both home and away. They’ve averaged just 0.33 goals conceded per game at home. Yet, their expected goals against (xGA) is 0.93 per game. On the road, they’ve shipped exactly 1 goal per game, against an xGA of 1.36 per game.

  PSG have scored in every Champions League game this season. Arsenal have only drawn blanks in 10% of their UCL fixtures. Both Teams to Score could be the most obvious play of the weekend.

  A clash of two opposing footballing philosophies

  At a 50% probability for Over 2.5 Goals, the bookmakers are pricing the game as an even chance. The game could finish above or below the line on Saturday night.

  The stylistic match-up is exactly why the bookies remain split. PSG’s free-flowing attack is the most productive in this season’s competition. Meanwhile, Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal have become increasingly committed to a more defensive, pragmatic approach.

  Let’s start by looking at PSG’s side of the ledger. They’ve had no issues with finding the net in the knockout phase of this season’s UCL. They scored seven against Leverkusen, five in their semi-final first leg against Bayern and smashed eight against Chelsea over two legs.

  The obvious reason that Over 2.5 Goals isn’t shorter than evens is Arsenal’s defensive record. Several high-profile UCL games this season have gone under 2.5 goals. This includes their 1-0 semi-final win over Atletico and a 1-0 quarter-final win over Sporting. Finals also tend to tighten up, due to the magnitude of what’s at stake.

  If PSG impose their tempo, the contest should comfortably feature three or more goals. If Arsenal smother the game, it could be a low-scoring encounter. The evens price is a fair reflection of that.

  However, it doesn’t factor in the fact that both teams have averaged at least one first-half goal per game this campaign. In addition, PSG have scored second-half goals in 90% of matches.

  Serious value in the 1st half goals market

  The betting markets suggest this is our long-shot prediction. Still, there is confidence in backing over 1.5 first-half goals this weekend. The implied probability of it landing is around 33% based on the current odds.

  The supporting evidence is PSG’s habit of starting at full intensity against most opponents. They tend to do so against Arsenal too. In last season’s semi-final first leg, Ousmane Dembele broke the deadlock in the 4th minute.

  Interestingly, Arsenal have been notoriously strong starters in the first half of UCL games this season. The Gunners have scored in the first half of 80% of their UCL fixtures. That’s a higher percentage than the 60% of PSG games featuring at least one first-half goal.

  Both teams have averaged one first-half goal per game across their UCL matches this season. This suggests a 33% probability significantly undervalues the first-half output of both sides.