With Nottingham Forest and Leeds edging towards safety, it could be a straight fight between Spurs and West Ham for survival.
| Premier League relegation | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tottenham | 1.80 |
| West Ham | 2.37 |
| Nottingham Forest | 9.00 |
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
Tottenham
Having failed to win in the Premier League in 2026, Tottenham are the favourites to be relegated with Burnley and Wolves. They've already sacked two managers, with Thomas Frank and Igor Tudor departing. Their return of six points from 15 games since the turn of the year is the lowest in the division.
Roberto De Zerbi has been tasked with saving their season. The Italian is a respected coach who previously impressed in the English top flight with Brighton. However, he needs instant results if Spurs are going to stay afloat.
The North London side created just one big chance in his first game, a 1-0 defeat to Sunderland. There were more positives to take from a 2-2 draw with Brighton last time out. However, they conceded stoppage-time goals in each half as their tragic winless run continued.
Both the form book and the underlying data suggest Spurs will be relegated. Their total of 36.2 xPTS (expected points) is lower than those of both West Ham and Nottingham Forest.
This weekend’s trip to Molineux is a massive football match for everyone connected with the club. Ominously for Spurs, Wolves have taken seven points from their last three home games. Those came in surprising fashion against Arsenal, Aston Villa, and Liverpool.
However, their mini-revival has been firmly halted by 3-0 and 4-0 losses on the road since the international break. Wolves’ relegation has now been confirmed, and they may struggle to match the intensity they displayed in March. If Spurs can find the level they produced against Brighton, it’s a game they should win.
Three points in the West Midlands would likely see Tottenham’s relegation odds lengthen. That suggests bettors may find more value by waiting until after this weekend to back De Zerbi’s team for the drop. A tough run-in will still leave them in a perilous position.
West Ham
The most likely scenario is that Tottenham and West Ham battle it out to avoid 18th place. According to PPG (points per game) analysis, Nuno’s team have a slightly tougher end to the season.
West Ham’s remaining opponents average 1.49 points per game. That relates to the home averages of the sides they have to visit, and the away averages of the teams they will host. The corresponding figure for Tottenham’s final opponents is 1.31.
However, that will even out after this weekend, given Spurs are up against the division’s bottom club. West Ham will be at an advantage on the final weekend, with a home game against Leeds. The Yorkshire club will almost certainly be safe by that point.
The Hammers are also in much better form than their rivals. They’re averaging 1.36 points per game in 2026. Nuno’s side have lost only one of their last five Premier League matches.
Also, there have been some major defensive improvements recently. They’ve conceded just three times across their last five outings in the league. That suggests West Ham’s current relegation odds are too short.
Nottingham Forest
With 36 points, Nottingham Forest are not yet safe. However, given the difficulty of the final fixtures for the two teams directly below, four more points should be enough.
A crucial 4-1 victory over Burnley on Sunday extended their unbeaten run to seven matches in all competitions. A trip to Sunderland, who have suffered a decline in their fortunes at home, is winnable on Friday.
If Forest fail to win on Wearside, things would get more complicated for Vitor Pereira’s side. They’ll then need to juggle the demands of a Premier League relegation battle with their bid for Europa League glory. An all-English semi-final against Aston Villa starts next week.
Forest’s final four Premier League games are not easy. They travel to Chelsea, who will have a new manager in place, in between the two legs against Villa. A trip to Old Trafford is also on the horizon.
Their final two home games are against Newcastle and Bournemouth. The Cherries may be competing for European places on the final weekend. They’re currently on a 14-game unbeaten run.
Forest should stay up from this position, but they are certainly not out of danger. Given their Europa League distractions, they could offer value at long odds to be relegated.