Their recent records in European two-legged ties and against Manchester City mean the Reds also seem vulnerable in the UCL and FA Cup outrights.
| Liverpool Outright Markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Chelsea (EPL - Top 5 Finish) | 1.62 |
| Liverpool vs Galatasaray (UCL – Galatasaray to Qualify) | 3.10 |
| Liverpool vs Man City (FA Cup – Man City to Qualify) | 1.53 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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Backing the Reds to miss out on next season’s Champions League
Liverpool are maintaining the fifth and final Champions League qualification place in the Premier League by a narrow margin. They had the opportunity to increase the gap over sixth-placed Chelsea, but a stoppage-time equaliser for Tottenham prevented a victory.
All eight of Liverpool’s Premier League goals conceded in the 90th minute or later this season have resulted in dropped points. Arne Slot’s side have shown a lack of defensive composure since their early-season form declined.
The betting markets still believe the Reds have a 77.51% chance of finishing in the EPL’s top five this season. However, this appears optimistic, as the visitors have lost as many away games as they have won (6), which is not the sign of a resilient team.
Following a run of three consecutive EPL victories recently, the Reds have claimed just one point from their last two matches. Their goal difference is also exactly half (+9) of Chelsea’s (+18).
In their latest 1-1 draw with relegation-threatened Tottenham, the Reds recorded 45 touches in the opposition box compared to 18 for Spurs. Despite this, the London club managed seven shots on target while Slot's team registered only four. The Reds are currently struggling for consistency.
Turkish delight for Galatasaray in their UCL last 16 tie
Liverpool finished third in the Champions League League Phase, recording the third-best goal difference. While their progression to the quarter-finals against 20th-placed Galatasaray appeared likely, the side faces a difficult challenge.
History shows the Merseysiders have been defeated in 11 of their last 16 two-legged European ties after losing the first leg away.
Liverpool were humbled in the first leg of their last 16 UCL tie with Galatasaray last week. Mario Lemina’s early seventh-minute strike was enough to give Gala a narrow lead ahead of their trip to Anfield.
The match statistics suggested Liverpool struggled to have things their own way. Match statistics show that ball possession was split evenly at 50%, while completed passes were also comparable at 307 to 313.
The visitors possess a highly productive attacking option in Victor Osimhen. The Nigerian has scored 12 goals in 19 Turkish Super Lig appearances and seven goals in nine UCL games this season.
This tally is double the goals recorded by Liverpool’s Hugo Ekitike across his EPL and UCL campaigns.
Gala can still be backed to reach the last eight at a probability of only 33.33%. That’s despite their firm grip of the tie ahead of Tuesday’s second leg.
Liverpool’s dire Etihad record to bring an end to their FA Cup bid
With the Premier League and EFL Cup out of reach, the FA Cup seemed to be Arne Slot’s primary opportunity for a trophy.
That was until the Reds were drawn to face Manchester City in the quarter-finals. Liverpool’s away record at the Etihad Stadium is poor, with only one victory across their last nine visits.
Liverpool have already lost twice to City in the Premier League this season. They suffered a 3-0 defeat in the away fixture, managing only one shot on target.
In the return fixture at Anfield, the Reds lost 2-1 and ended the game with ten men following Dominik Szoboszlai’s controversial stoppage-time dismissal
Even at home, Liverpool were outperformed by City in every metric. Pep Guardiola’s men recorded more possession, goal attempts, attempts on target, and better passing accuracy.
Liverpool’s away form is a particular concern, especially during the opening 45 minutes. They’ve led at half-time in only one of their 15 EPL away games this season.
In contrast, Manchester City have led at half-time in 12 of their 15 EPL home games in 2025/26. They’ve also scored 22 of their 35 home goals in the first 45 minutes of matches.
Given these trends, a visit to Manchester appears to be a major obstacle. City can be backed to advance to the FA Cup semis at a probability of 66.67%.